I usually write some words here at the top of the article. I learned over the offseason that google thinks you’re a bot if you use the same introduction twice.
AGENDA
Episode 256 – The Lives Are Saved
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Matt’s first softball game and ensuing injury, Dylan struggling to brag about notching the first stolen base, an update on the stat performances so far, Matt defending Adam Conley, Adam Wainwright getting old, James Shields pumping his trade value, being scared to pick against the Brewers, Freddie Freeman’s hot streak, finding use in Alex Gordon, Derek Holland’s crazy splits, Matt’s birthday, Andrew Triggs being awesome, and finding use in Shin-Soo Choo.
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Eric Thames continues to show off his power. He now has a league-leading eight home runs to and raised his ISO to .566.
Nick Stellini wrote about Thames highlighting his mashing capabilities and reminds you that Thames’ power has always been there, it’s just been shown off in another country.
“We get to see if a man who couldn’t cut it in his first try can succeed after dominating a foreign circuit. So far, he’s doing quite well.”
Yes, yes he is.
With both Neftali Feliz and Corey Knebel appearing in three of the past four days, Milwaukee turned to young flamethrower Jacob Barnes in the ninth-inning today for his first save opportunity. The right-hander failed to disappoint in his 10th trip to the bump this season, needing just 17 pitches (10 strikes) in a scoreless frame of work, striking out one and allowing one free pass en route to his first save of the season — second of his career — and a 7-5 victory over the Cardinals. This may not be the last we see of Barnes in save situations, as some in the scouting community believe he could be the Brewers’ long-term solution in that role. In just over 10 innings this season, Barnes owns a 0.00 ERA (1.76 FIP) and a 10.45 K/9.
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4/20/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!
We had some sound issues with Eno’s end, thanks to Christopher Welsh from InThisLeague.com for helping clean it up as best as he could and make it listenable.
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
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A few days ago, Alan Nathan wrote an article for The Hardball Times about the humidor’s potential impact on exit velocity in Chase Field. He referenced a physics model that estimates a 3.8 mile per hour drop in exit velocity. He also showed that over the past two seasons the Diamondbacks Exit Velocity is 2 miles per hour higher in home games when compared to away games. I encourage you to read the whole article prior to reading what I have produced here today, as I will be building upon what he wrote. Read the rest of this entry »
Creating Launch Angle from Batted Ball Data
While going over the minor league groundball leaderboard yesterday, this group of hitters intrigued me.
Those last five hitters are known for their power and mainly hit line drives or flyballs. I need to run a quick study to find out.
I took all MLB hitters from 2015 and 2016 and compared their corrected launch angle (from StatCast) to their groundball numbers (from Baseball Info Solutions). Here’s the graph (min 100 balls in play).
Note: Ryan Schimpf is the outlier with a 26-degree launch angle.
Note: this article was written prior to Lucas Duda’s exit from Wednesday night’s game with what is being described as a hyperextended elbow. The severity of the injury, which we don’t yet know, obviously impacts his viability moving forward. But as this latest episode now represents the second time within about a year that this author has endorsed Lucas Duda shortly before an injury befell him, take any future endorsements from him with a giant block of Himalayan salt.
Has anyone noticed what Lucas Duda has been up to? Apparently not anyone who plays in Yahoo or ESPN formats where he’s still available in nearly 85% of leagues. This is despite his 4 homers, .393 wOBA, and perhaps most importantly, 49 plate appearances over which he’s paraded his newly healthy back. Duda has played in 12 of the Mets’ first 14 games, starting in 11 of them, and thus far sat only against lefties, Jaime Garcia, Wei-Yin Chen, and Adam Conley.
It’s far too early in the season to draw any conclusions about his batted balls or production so let’s just acknowledge that he’s stroking the ball well, pairing a ton of fly balls with convincing exit velocities. The takeaway shouldn’t be that Duda appears back and as good as ever but rather that three weeks into the season, Duda’s back appears as good as ever.
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In my previous article on Effective Velocity, I discovered that the pitchers who had EV Adherence rates above the 80th percentile collectively had an ERA that was 10 points below their FIP between 2013 and 2016. Put differently, the pitchers who most closely followed the principles of Effective Velocity seemed to be able to consistently outperform their peripheral numbers, presumably because their sequences of pitches had large perceived differences in velocity for hitters, which kept those hitters off-balance and generated weaker contact on average. That is a pretty notable finding because EV Adherence is a strategy that anyone can pick up, and my research for this week’s article demonstrates that many pitchers have done so in recent seasons and found success.
The double homer binge continues. Another three sluggers went deep twice. It’s not even that warm yet.
AGENDA