The Daily Grind: Flock of Harpers

The double homer binge continues. Another three sluggers went deep twice. It’s not even that warm yet.

AGENDA

1. Bird Brains
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Bird Brains

That’s not a reference to Greg Bird. Rather, DFS participants have a tendency to flock to certain names – not always for obviously rational reasons. I’m hoping somebody can explain a phenomenon I’ve observed in our TDG contests.

Yesterday, Bryce Harper filled the stat sheet. Along with Jay Bruce, Clayton Kershaw, and Jason Vargas, Harper supplied the bulk of the production in winning lineups. I get why Kershaw was 45 percent owned. However, with all the myriad choices available – big bopping outfielders versus bad pitchers – how was Harper owned by eight of 20 owners? By comparison, Mike Trout was on one roster. Trout’s matchup against Dallas Keuchel was comparable in quality to Harper versus Julio Teheran. In fact, SaberSim had Trout projected to outperform Harper. It wasn’t a cost issue either, Trout was only $300 more to roster.

While I wasn’t involved in last night’s flock, I find I often participate. I picked a good player I think will be underowned and find myself sharing with everybody. Any theories?

Oh, why not, a video.

2. Weather Reports

Cincinnati has an increasing risk of storms throughout the game. They’ll start, but they might not finish. The rest of the league should be fine.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Four games are early. Seven are late.

Afternoon Slate: There’s always a small amount of trepidation when a pitcher leaves one team for another. Pitchers are such finicky beasts. They don’t take well to change. So goes conventional wisdom. Chris Sale cares not for your conventions. He’s picked up right where he left off in Chicago, except now his team has an offense. The icy Blue Jays are a great team to target.

Lance McCullers is a great fantasy asset. He’s less valuable in DFS because he makes short starts. FanDuel now has wins and quality starts disaggregated, putting double emphasis on picking pitchers who regularly pitch beyond the sixth inning. On an out-by-out basis, McCullers can keep pace with anybody. It’s just that he’s much less likely to tally a QS or W.

Daniel Norris isn’t as cheap as I expected, but I’d still consider him the bargain play. Norris has a winnable matchup versus the strikeout prone Rays. His command hasn’t quite been up to scratch thus far.

Stack Targets: Matt Shoemaker, Trevor Bauer, Erasmo Ramirez

Main Slate: I may abstain from Syndergaard. Blisters. Torn fingernails. What’s next? He remains the highest upside pick of the day opposite the Phillies. Other aces include Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez. Strasburg faces a domitable Braves lineup. CMart has a harder, higher value matchup against the strikeout happy Brewers.

James Paxton is set to defend his scoreless streak at pitcher friendly Oakland. It’s friendly because of the ballpark and the flat Athletics lineup. Paxton will eventually allow some runs. His 2.90 xFIP is still highly desirable, especially since Mariners pitchers should outperform their peripherals due to superb outfield defense.

Danny Duffy appears to have picked up where he left off in the middle of 2016. You know, before he regressed back to mid-rotation quality. At least, that’s what you might think if you only paid attention to his results. His velocity is down two mph from where he sat last season. His 4.16 xFIP warns of impending DOOM. Well… not doom. More like impending BLAH. A sharp uptick in his changeup usage has helped him to induce more whiffs. Perhaps more breaking balls will counteract the lost velocity.

Aaron Nola is sometimes good, but he has a difficult path to victory opposite Syndergaard. For cheap volume, I’m also interested in Clayton Richard‘s oppressive sinker and Cesar Valdez’s mysterious return.

Stack Targets: Andrew Cashner, Scott Feldman, Zach Davies, Pat Corbin, R.A. Dickey, Wade Miley

4. Fade Fade Fade

Stars: Since I’m abstaining from Syndergaard due to his weird “injuries,” I bet other DFSers will do the same. Which may mean the top arm is under-represented.

Paul Goldschmidt’s ownership might be lowered by Petco Park, a late West Coast start time, and his ground balling opponent. He’s still Goldy.

Jose Ramirez is tied for most expensive third baseman at $4,000. Shinier, cheaper alternatives will draw more attention.

Bargains: Jonathan Villar is super cheap despite an almost matchup proof batting profile. It’s because he’s off to a slow start. CMart is a difficult opponent. Don’t pair Villar with other Brewers.

Chris Owings‘ ownership may be protected by the big guns. Beware, as a ground ball hitter, Owings isn’t a good pick versus Richard.

5. SaberSim Says…

Syndergaard, Sale, Strasburg, McCullers, and Norris are the top rated pitchers today. Obviously, based on my analysis above, I agree completely. I probably prefer Paxton and Martinez to the final pair. Harper, Manny Machado, Mike Trout, Villar, and Matt Carpenter are the hitters to own. Carpenter only just returned yesterday. He may rest today.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Schweitz1986 took down yesterday’s invitational. He was the only one to combine Harper, Bruce, Kershaw, and Vargas. Congrats! The leaderboard is updated.

We’re back on FanDuel tonight for our typical contest.