Two Widely Available Statues: Duda and Mancini

Note: this article was written prior to Lucas Duda’s exit from Wednesday night’s game with what is being described as a hyperextended elbow. The severity of the injury, which we don’t yet know, obviously impacts his viability moving forward. But as this latest episode now represents the second time within about a year that this author has endorsed Lucas Duda shortly before an injury befell him, take any future endorsements from him with a giant block of Himalayan salt.

Has anyone noticed what Lucas Duda has been up to? Apparently not anyone who plays in Yahoo or ESPN formats where he’s still available in nearly 85% of leagues. This is despite his 4 homers, .393 wOBA, and perhaps most importantly, 49 plate appearances over which he’s paraded his newly healthy back. Duda has played in 12 of the Mets’ first 14 games, starting in 11 of them, and thus far sat only against lefties, Jaime Garcia, Wei-Yin Chen, and Adam Conley.

It’s far too early in the season to draw any conclusions about his batted balls or production so let’s just acknowledge that he’s stroking the ball well, pairing a ton of fly balls with convincing exit velocities. The takeaway shouldn’t be that Duda appears back and as good as ever but rather that three weeks into the season, Duda’s back appears as good as ever.

We’re right around the point in the season when swing rate starts to stabilize so it’s reassuring to see that El Duderino continues to exhibit his trademark patience, drawing walks at an elevated rate. His .367 on-base percentage ranks only 10^th among first baseman but his 16.3% walk rate 3^rd.

However, it’s swing rates that are approaching stabilization. Walk rates don’t get there for another couple of weeks and Duda is notably swinging at far fewer balls in the zone than he has in his career. Additionally, his whiff rate is up and while that isn’t a cause for concern yet, it could be if it doesn’t come down over the next couple of weeks. Perhaps he’s still getting his timing back, perhaps it’s noise, but if his elevated whiff rate and diminutive zone-swing percentage hold, it’s reasonable to expect that his current walk rate will fall a few points towards his career average. Still, an average walk rate by Duda standards is elite by most others. As long as he’s hitting with this kind of power, that’s something owners can surely stomach.

Historically, Duda has struggled against like-handed pitching. His career .299 wOBA, while not awful, is nevertheless poor enough to justify resting him against tough lefties. Yet, in his last healthy season, Duda slashed .285/.333/.545 with a 143 wRC+ against lefties. He displayed the same swing-and-miss proclivities that he always had but the results over the course of those 132 plate appearances represented a dramatic improvement. Whether this was small sample size noise or something more is hard to say. As I noted in an ill-fated pre-2016 endorsement of our titular hero:

“…[Duda’s] line against lefties is a variety pack of pink Starburst improvements and banana-and-cream oatmeal packets of regression. Dig around and you’ll find a .378 BABIP and 17% HR/FB rate. However, Duda also made harder contact and hit fewer grounders versus southpaws so I’m more inclined to believe in the righteous verisimilitude of his 2015 handedness gains.”

I didn’t really know what to make of his production against lefties in 2015 and given the abbreviated and injury-affected season that followed, I’m still not sure. I’m also uncertain if Terry Collins’ decision this season to sit Duda against Garcia, Chen, and Conley was primarily rooted in matchups or easing him back after a precarious injury. Most likely, it’s some combination of the two.

Regardless, I want to see him face more lefties because I want to know if those 2015 gains are material. In just 9 plate appearances against southpaws this season, he’s already left the yard twice, albeit on pitches both belt high and over the plate.

Obviously, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions because of both sample size constraints and that the pitches, one a fastball and the other a slider, were in exactly the same location. Nevertheless, factor in possible gains against like-handed pitching dating back to 2015 and a healthy Duda shows the potential for a monster return. Here’s one more pair of graphics to illustrate a larger point, namely that the best may still lie ahead for His Dudeness.

That’s Duda’s isolated slugging per pitch against lefties prior to 2015 on the left and since then on the right. Obviously, the difference in plate coverage is enormous and relentlessly encouraging. If lefties continue to challenge him up and over the plate, it may be hard for Terry Collins to find those rest days after all.

 

Trey Mancini is making it more and more difficult to keep him and his obscene AL-leading .565 isolated slugging out of the Orioles’ lineup. Now, anytime you see a leaderboard topped by the likes of Trey Mancini, Taylor Motter, and Aaron Hicks, you’re right to be skeptical. While Mancini has so far murdered balls in the air, averaging 100.5 mph on fly balls and line drives, that stat conveniently isolates just 8 balls in play and excludes grounders, of which to this point, he’s hit far too many. So, while it’s fair to say he’s earned his 4 jacks on the year, he’s needed a 67% HR/FB% to get there. Trey Mancini scoffs at your passion for sustainably sourced home runs.

One promising early development has been Mancini’s ability to lay off balls outside of the zone. His 20.3% chase rate ranks 36^th out of 309 hitters with 20 or more plate appearances. He’s never been one to walk a ton, though last year across AA and AAA he found the ability, drawing the free pass in 9.5% of his plate appearances. If any of that selectivity sticks, Mancini becomes an intriguing option because of his plus power and passable patience.

The scouting on Mancini is a mixed bag, in part due to his defense, which we don’t really care about, but also his long swing, which triggers concerns over strikeouts. The one aspect of his game that scouts can agree on though is the most important to fantasy owners and that’s his power. From Eric Longenhagen:

“Mancini has plus raw power and is likely to get to a good bit of it because, despite a stiff, upright swing, he has excellent hitter’s timing and has quieted aspects of his swing that turned off amateur evaluators. He projects to make an average amount of contact. He’s a below-average athlete and defender at first, arguably. But the hit/power combination, while not exciting at first, is playable, and Mancini is a relatively advanced hitter who has already made his MLB debut. He’s a low-risk, below-average regular.”

The issue for Mancini is finding at bats. With Chris Davis locked in at Mancini’s natural position and Mark Trumbo at his best suited, it’s in a depleted outfield where the young Oriole finds his opportunity. He’s thus far started three games in the outfield corners and been pulled for a defensive replacement twice. However, he also found himself batting lead-off on Tuesday, which, when combined with his newfound proclivity for walking, intimates some upside.

If Mancini continues to slug the snot out of the ball, Buck Showalter will find it hard to relegate one of the organization’s top prospects to the bench even when reinforcements ultimately arrive. He’s not yet worthy of starting in standard leagues and he’s also owned in too many to qualify as a deep league play; if you have him in 15+ team leagues, well done. However, with his power and the potential for continued playing time, Mancini deserves a much higher ownership rate.