Archive for April, 2017

The Unwritten Rules

Throughout the season I will answer questions based on fantasy ethics and rules in this reoccurring piece. You may not always like the answers I give, but I hope that it is informative and makes you think about how you construct your leagues and play the games. Typically I do 4-5 questions per piece. You can send me more questions via email, JustinMasonFantasy@gmail.com, my twitter account, or by posting in my facebook group. Read the rest of this entry »


Simming an Ottoneu Season for Fun (and Profit?)

I’ve been a baseball fan as far back as I can remember, and for me that fandom didn’t end when the season did. I was always a numbers guy, so in middle school I made up the rules to my own baseball (and football) games using dice to simulate results, and latched onto fantasy baseball shortly after. When the baseball season ended and I still needed my fix, I turned to Strat-O-Matic, the much more advanced version of my simple dice game. As I entered college I discovered baseball sim games on the computer, starting with Baseball Mogul and ending with Out of the Park Baseball (OOTP). I’ve been playing OOTP to get me through the long baseball offseason for at least ten years, and every new iteration becomes more and more immersive. The newest version (OOTP 18) is out, so I decided to project the results for one of my ottoneu leagues (League #530) with an OOTP simulation of 2017 (hat tip to league-mate Brent Daily for the idea!).

Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: Clusterbombs and Walkabouts

The Mets stack went wild yesterday versus Clay Buchholz and Adam Morgan. They were just one of many highly desirable options on the table. Hopefully you grabbed a share of them, especially Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda. Listed prices are for FanDuel.

AGENDA

  1. A Couple Things That Happened
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Fade Fade Fade
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: April 12, 2017

Today’s Roto Riteup is dedicated to #TeamCletus, whose final member jumped off the bandwagon yesterday.

via GIPHY

Read the rest of this entry »


Tipping Pitches: Pineda and Cotton Shine on Monday

Two arms who got a lot of attention this draft season made their second starts of the season and dominated the opposition. Michael Pineda and Jharel Cotton were bouncing back from opening week duds after both guys had bad second innings that eventually cut short their outings, but neither were exactly pummeled. They rebounded nicely in their Monday afternoon outings. Here are my thoughts on the two starts.

Michael Pineda – 7.7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 93 pit, 67 strikes, 18 swinging strikes v. TB

Few things are more “Michael Pineda” than following up a 3.7 IP/4 ER bomb with 7.7 nearly perfect innings (Evan Longoria’s double broke up the perfecto with two outs in the seventh). Hell, his first start was also the most “Michael Pineda” ever (4 ER in fewer than 4 IP yet still 6 K, 0 BB) so he’s been everything you’d expect thus far. The fastball velocity was up a tick and had the Rays tied up. They beat the piss out of it in his debut with a 1.417 OPS in 12 PA, the bulk of which came against lefties (9 of 12 PA). Yesterday they were 0-for-11 with lefties again accounting for nine of the plate appearances.

Read the rest of this entry »


PITCHf/x Forensics: Rich Hill and Blisters

Pitch forks have emerged, and rage has exploded over the most recent Rich Hill trip to the disabled list – once again, for a blister. Hockey fans gearing up for the playoff run scoff, stating how their sport has players who take slap shots to the face and return in the same game – blisters? Those are a sign that baseball players are weak, pampered, and fragile. Why do blisters keep forming on Rich Hill’s fingers? What are the implications for changing his style that could prevent blisters from occurring all together? Why can’t Sidney Crosby grow a beard? Let’s get into the answers to these questions.

All of pitching revolves around applying the appropriate amount of pressure to specific areas at ball release, and causing the ball to spin about a certain axis. This pressure applied along the seams, generates friction, and spin on the ball. More friction? More spin. That’s why pitchers try the ol’ Icy Hot trick to get a better grip on the ball, and throw funkier pitches. Sorry if I got most of my pitching knowledge from Rookie of the Year – I flamed out as a player in High School.

Read the rest of this entry »


Five Under 50%

With about a week of 2017 baseball data in the books, there are already thousands of innings, plate appearances, and batted balls to parse through. We’ve seen a perfect game bid, a cycle, multi-home run performances, and a huge lead blown in the ninth. Unfortunately, something else we’ve seen are injuries to key players. Like the crack of the bat and pop of the glove, injuries are a part of the spot. They’re bad for the player, the team, the fans — and fantasy owners.

When a key player on your fantasy roster gets injured, it often leaves you scrambling to fill the unexpected hole. The following exercise is designed to help you survive such situations. We’re going to look at viable players who are readily available in most fantasy leagues. To qualify for this list, a player must be owned in less than 50% of all Ottoneu fantasy leagues, based on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page. He also must be able to help your team right now (i.e., no prospects).

Getting right to the list, here are of five players worth a shot in an emergency who are owned in less than 50% of Ottoneu leagues, along with their positional eligibility, average salary, and owned percentage: Read the rest of this entry »


(Really) Deep League Hitter Pickups

“Deep League Hitter Pickups.” So promised a bulletin we received, unbidden, from America’s Leading Fantasy Sports Aggregator. Likewise “Under the Radar Waiver Wire Pickups.” These communiques used to annoy us, because, absolutely without exception, every player thus recommended was long gone in every league we played in. But then we realized: these bulletins from ALFSA are for people who play Fantasy baseball the way we play Fantasy football: join a small league with shallow rosters, prepare for your draft the day before it happens and no earlier, check waiver wire recommendations on Tuesdays, check again Sunday mornings to make sure your players remain alive and ambulatory, and that’s it.

All in all, a sensible way to do things, but when it comes to Fantasy baseball, prudence and we are strangers. And this season, our folly has led us to a couple of leagues where the number of teams, limited player pool, and shortness of roster space produce only three choices when one of our players gets hurt, gets sent down, or is terminally disappointing: (1) a vacant roster spot; (2) an occupied roster spot that might as well be vacant; and (3) a roster spot whose occupant, though widely shunned for excellent reasons, has a faint chance of doing something useful.

Unfortunately, though the season is in its infancy, we’ve already had occasion to wonder who might be behind Door Number Three, and we thought we’d share with you the fruits of our research. Here, then, are five hitters—one at each position, with the middle infielder qualifying at both spots—whom we either would get, did get, or tried to get when in extremis. All of them are owned in fewer than 50% of NFBC leagues, which means they are more likely than not available to you. Hope you don’t need them.
Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: The One About Fades

Yesterday’s synthetic rubber match between Charlie Morton and James Paxton lived up to expectations. Both pitched marvelously, although Morton appeared to fatigue mid-way through the outing. Between the third and fourth innings, his command declined from 60 to 40 on the 20-80 scouting scale. This isn’t uncommon, especially early in the season. The Mariners have a tough lineup. Two lengthy plate appearances accounted for one-fifth of his pitches.

Paxton’s command remains inconsistent, flashing between 20 and 70 on the scale. I’d estimate that one of every nine pitches missed his target by more than two feet. Then he’d follow it up by painting a lower corner. He steamrolled a very potent Astros offense. Both lived around 96-97 mph with their fastballs.

AGENDA

  1. Fading
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Fade Fade Fade
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: April 11, 2017

Today’s Roto Riteup is coming to you with the speed of a Brandon Finnegan start. Quick, brief, and disappointing.

On the Agenda:

1. Arizona Diamondback Defense

2. Fun with Small Samples

3. Various News and Notes

4. Streaming Pitcher Options Read the rest of this entry »