The Daily Grind: Clusterbombs and Walkabouts

The Mets stack went wild yesterday versus Clay Buchholz and Adam Morgan. They were just one of many highly desirable options on the table. Hopefully you grabbed a share of them, especially Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda. Listed prices are for FanDuel.

AGENDA

1. A Couple Things That Happened
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. A Couple Things That Happened

As mentioned above, Cespedes led the day’s scoring with three home runs. Here they are courtesy of MLB.com.

We’re familiar with Cespedes performing feats of strength. Of less certainty is the performance of Michael Brantley. As such, this is an encouraging sign.

The scouting reports I read this spring said he was late on fastballs and questioned his ability to pull the ball. That remains in question. Brantley has an uncharacteristically high 7.6 percent swinging strike rate through 23 plate appearances. Although still below league average, that’s over twice his career whiff rate. Expect more April rust.

2. Weather Reports

I dreamed two games were already cancelled for today. The real weather report is much better. Only the Giants game is at risk, and there’s a chance they can wait out the wet. Yankee Stadium may be damp for the fans, but they’ll play. It’s cold in Chicago and Cleveland.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Four games are early. Ten will be a part of the evening contest. The White Sox-Indians game exists in no-man’s land.

Early Slate: As has been the pattern early this season, the truly good pitchers tend to show up in the smaller contests. Max Scherzer is a monster when he’s on… and still quite good when he’s “off.” He’s well worth his $10,900 price tag opposite Mike Leake and the Cardinals. Leake is a fine volume play if you want to go contrarian. The Nationals lineup will prove a difficult nemesis.

The other big name of the slate is Michael Fulmer. At $9,500, he’s a tad pricey for my tastes. It’s a cool day in Detroit which should work in the pitchers’ favor. He’ll face the Twins.

I’m looking forward to watching Blake Snell versus Jordan Montgomery. Actually using them in DFS may not be a winning strategy. Still, they’re a couple contrarian options you can try.

Stack Targets: Kyle Gibson, Kyle Freeland, Luis Perdomo

Main Slate: The most expensive pitcher is John Lackey, but the best pitcher is surely somebody else. Lackey has a tough assignment against the Dodgers.

My preference for top hurler is Marcus Stroman. He posts a downright unfair ground ball rate while limiting hard contact. Like J.A. Happ yesterday, Stroman’s strikeout rate may be buffed by his matchup against the Brewers. Happ also experienced the downside of facing the Brewers, allowing four runs on two home runs in 4.2 innings (eight strikeouts).

Vince Velasquez managed only four innings against the Nationals, but he supplied a decent DFS point total via 10 strikeouts. His stuff is incredibly inconsistent. If you pay close attention to his starts, he’ll have a different featured pitch nearly every time. Velasquez is a strong pick for deep GPPs where his unmatched ceiling overshadows the cold hard floor.

Controlmaster Ivan Nova is hosting the Reds at super pitcher friendly PNC Park. Speaking of friendly parks, velocity breakout Shelby Miller is visiting AT&T Field. It’s always a savvy play to use decent pitchers at these venues.

Stack Targets: Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Jesse Chavez, Amir Garrett, Zack Wheeler, Chase Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tom Koehler, Jaime Garcia, A.J. Griffin

4. Fade Fade Fade

Let’s focus on the main contest.

Stars: Wrigley Field is very pitcher friendly this time of year. A hitter needs massive power to escape the park. For this reason, Yasmany Grandal versus Lackey may go unowned. No catcher is a bigger multi-homer threat, even at a pitcher’s park. Along these lines, I’m going to tab Corey Seager as today’s forgotten shortstop.

Jose Altuve’s slow start to the season may scare away the more reactionary DFS players. Keep investing. He’ll eventually have a crazy five hit game with a homer and three steals.

Bargains: Kendrys Morales has a solid matchup, but he’s overshadowed at first base. Many of the stars have quality matchups, and there are cheaper bargains like Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland, and Tommy Joseph.

Michael Saunders sometimes goes completely bonkers. And nobody wants to use a crappy Phillie, amirite?

5. SaberSim Says…

Scherzer, Chavez, Velasquez, Stroman, and Fulmer are the top listed starters today. Actually, Danny Salazar tops the list, but he doesn’t count. You may be thinking, “Chavez who?” This is the second straight time our favorite projection system has gone cuckoo for Chavez. C’est un mysteroire.

Somebody has crashed the Coors party. Nolan Arenado, Wil Myers, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Mookie Betts (interloper!) are the top bats today.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to ecotten1, the only user to roster Cespedes in the Invitational. Shocking. I didn’t pick him specifically because I thought he’d be more popular than Mike Trout. Mr. ecotten1 also benefited from Duda’s double dong. Another surprise – Matt Harvey was only owned by three of 20 users. The leaderboard is updated. We have a four-way tie on DraftKings.

I’m writing a FanDuel specific column today which means we’ll play there today. Standard settings apply – $2, 20 users.