The Daily Grind: The One About Fades

Yesterday’s synthetic rubber match between Charlie Morton and James Paxton lived up to expectations. Both pitched marvelously, although Morton appeared to fatigue mid-way through the outing. Between the third and fourth innings, his command declined from 60 to 40 on the 20-80 scouting scale. This isn’t uncommon, especially early in the season. The Mariners have a tough lineup. Two lengthy plate appearances accounted for one-fifth of his pitches.

Paxton’s command remains inconsistent, flashing between 20 and 70 on the scale. I’d estimate that one of every nine pitches missed his target by more than two feet. Then he’d follow it up by painting a lower corner. He steamrolled a very potent Astros offense. Both lived around 96-97 mph with their fastballs.

AGENDA

1. Fading
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. What It Means to Fade

I’ve had a few people ask how I define “fade” in section four. In DFS parlance, a fade is any good player who should be avoided for some reason. For example, Brian Dozier mashes left-handed pitching such that he’s a very popular start when facing a southpaw. However, you should fade him against Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, or Madison Bumgarner. It can be a noun (i.e. “here are my fades”) or a verb (i.e. “fade Dozier”).

When referring to small contests and 50/50 type formats, you’ll want to avoid fades. Easy. The calculus grows more complicated when participating in large GPPs. Any talented player who will be sparsely owned in a large tournament is tempting. If you’re aiming to take home a big score, you have to find some contrarian picks. Those can come in the form of scrubby players with good lineup roles, like when Daniel Nava batted second against Rookie Davis, or you can target high quality players in a bad setting, like Paul Goldschmidt visiting Johnny Cueto.

Since this column caters primarily to the GPP crowd, fading is viewed as a desirable and positive activity.

2. Weather Reports

Cleveland and Pittsburgh could see some early rain. It doesn’t appear as though they’re at risk for postponement. San Francisco may see some late sprinkles.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

We finally have one large slate to play. The Detroit and Cleveland games are early, leaving 10 options in the main contest.

Main Slate: Cole Hamels is the big name on the price list, but I only view him as the third or fourth best arm in the slate. Hamels is opposed by the LA Trout. While he’ll be working in a pitcher’s park, Hamels can be a tad prone to allowing home runs. Keep an eye on Mike Trout and Albert Pujols.

Robbie Ray has a higher ceiling than Hamels thanks to his strikeout stuff. Of course, Ray is extremely volatile and prone to short outings. He’s opposed by another volatile pitcher, Jeff Samardzija. Shark has completely different problems. He’s usually a mediocre arm, but every once and awhile he’ll go nuclear – in either direction. They’ll be working at AT&T Field.

Matt Harvey will undoubtedly be the most popular pick versus Clay Buchholz and the Phillies. If Harvey is truly back, we should see six or seven strong innings with an easy victory.

Jameson Taillon pitched well against the Red Sox last week. He produces an inordinate amount of pulled ground ball contact. A matchup versus the Reds at PNC Park is favorable. Despite mid-90s velocity, Taillon won’t record many strikeouts. He’ll also be handled with kid gloves. Even though he managed seven frames in his debut, don’t count on more than six innings tonight.

Others of interest include J.A. Happ hosting the Brewers, Lance Lynn at Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy at Drew Pomeranz, Bartolo Colon, and Joe Musgrove.

Stack Targets: Jered Weaver, Rookie Davis, Anthony Senzatela, Buchholz, Wily Peralta, Ariel Miranda, Dan Straily, Tyler Skaggs

4. Fade Fade Fade

Stars: Since Hamels has the highest price tag despite not being the top arm, he might be unpopular. He’s capable of going six plus with a strikeout per inning.

I mentioned Goldschmidt as an example fade earlier in the post. His ownership should be low-ish versus Samardzija. Another first baseman, Joey Votto, is even pricier despite an equally iffy matchup and park.

Considering Jose Reyes‘ season opening slump, his $4,100 price tag is a tad absurd. Most will want to avoid the ice, but there’s a chance he’ll go off versus Buchholz.

Every large slate will include a very good, underowned shortstop. It’s a numbers game. Tonight, I think the name to watch is Carlos Correa.

Nobody wants to pay $4,000 for Travis Jankowski, even at Coors Field.

Bargains: Dansby Swanson will also fall through the cracks opposite Straily.

Multi-talented A.J. Pollock is only $3,400 tonight. AT&T should discourage Arizona stacks.

5. SaberSim Says…

Well, SaberSim agrees with me that Hamels isn’t the top starter of the day. He’s ranked 10th. Harvey is ninth. The top five pitchers are Ray, Skaggs, Happ, Pomeranz, and Taillon. Colorado retains a firm grip on the best hitters – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Wil Myers, and Trevor Story.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

I knew I built a crappy lineup yesterday, one I’d describe as Coors Field contrarian. Tulip_Blues knew better, stacking four Nationals. They provided nearly all of his firepower. The leaderboard is updated.

We’re finally back on DraftKings for today’s Invitational. As usual, $2 and 20 users. While DraftKings does allow more than 20 users, I’d prefer to avoid cancelled contests. If the link isn’t working for you, try removing everything after the ? in the url. And let me know if that works.