This evening’s edition of the Bullpen Report is much more of a routine fly-out than the previous week or so — lucky me. A combination of a short(er) slate and closers already in the green getting their work in are to thank as I write this. There have been some minor changes to the chart based on the work of the previous writers and the helpful notes from some of the commenters. Thanks folks.
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4/13/17
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By clicking this link, you (“Reader”) have opted into an agreement (“Contract”) with FanGraphs, Inc. (“Handsome Author”). Handsome Author agrees to provide Small-Sample Normalization Services (SSNS) to Reader in the following post (“Post”). In return, Reader, presumably interested in Handsome Author’s analysis or merely intrigued by Handsome Author’s curious Post title, shall appreciate said services no matter what.
SSNS seeks to normalize good and bad performances witnessed in the first two weeks of the 2017 Major League Baseball (MLB) season. Handsome Author has noted previously, here and elsewhere, that small-sample booms and busts in March and April would go largely unnoticed in other months in which the sport of professional baseball is played, such as May, June, July, August, or even September.
Accordingly, SSNS looks at a player’s past performance as a benchmark for current performance using FanGraphs’ (and not Handsome Author’s) very nifty player graphs. It answers the question, “Has a player done this before?” Perhaps, Reader. Perhaps. But perhaps not. SSNS then assigns an Excitement-to-Panic Level (EPL) on a 5-point scale from 1 to 5 as well as an Adjusted Excitement-to-Panic Level (AEPL) once Handsome Author has properly assessed the historical significance of the player’s performance — within the context of the player’s self.
In this inaugural edition, Handsome Author will use SSNS to evaluate five hitters primarily in terms of their strikeouts (K%) and walks (BB%) through their first X number of games, with some other statistics incorporated as well. SSNS is not the be-all, end-all of player performance, but knowing we’ve seen a player “do this before,” as they say, is enough to calm one’s turbulent heart and mind.
There have been a lot of questions and comments this season about the change in pitch velocity readings. I am not going to go into depth why these changes were made, but I have seen a lot of people questioning these velocity readings, and how they might compare to past seasons.
I am sure you have seen articles about how velocities this season are roughly 0.6 mph faster than last season, so maybe you have been subtracting a mile per hour from each number you see as a back of the envelope estimate. Maybe you’re happy with that, maybe not. Tom Tango mentioned a manner for calculating the traditional pitch velocities in the comment section of his blog post about the change to Start Speed. After seeing this, I immediately implemented it on my personal pitch database, and I am here to share those results with you today. Read the rest of this entry »
Before I posted my Effective Velocity article from last week, Perry Husband was gracious enough to provide me with some feedback, much of which will guide me in improving the simplified EV calculation I am currently using. But rather than refine my math right away, I want to push forward a bit to a point where I have a real metric to evaluate pitchers. My hope is that I can then more easily test whether my attempted improvements to my EV calculations are making real improvements by testing the performance of the metric. To follow that roadmap, my next step now that I have calculated the EV of every pitch is to figure out which pitchers are executing an EV-friendly game plan, whether or not they realize they are doing so.
What do you look for in second-week-of-the-season pitcher pickups? I’m solely looking at quality of stuff improvements, such as increased velocity, a spike in swinging strikes from a guy who rarely induces lots of them, and perhaps a new pitch mix featuring more prominently a pitch that has been effective, but less frequently thrown, in the past. Unfortunately, 99% of fantasy owners are simply picking up the guys who happened to only allow a run or less in their first start. While a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut, it’s not the most efficient path to success. That said, let’s take a gander at which American League starting pitchers fantasy owners are picking up on CBS.
If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have missed Trey Mancini’s pair of home runs. He was overshadowed by Giancarlo Stanton doing the same.
AGENDA
The purpose of today’s Roto Riteup is to help you believe in miracles. Read the rest of this entry »
With the Rangers heading into the final frame with a 6-3 lead against the Angels on Wednesday night, it looked as if we were going to get our first peek at what the future of the Rangers’ ninth inning will be. Sam Dyson and Matt Bush (shoulder) were unavailable, and with Jose Leclerc throwing the last four pitches of the eighth inning (including a three-pitch strikeout of Mike Trout), he was primed to come out for the ninth. Tony Barnette was an option, too.
The Rangers tacked on two more runs in the top of the ninth, so the save chance was gone if a new reliever was brought in. Instead, Leclerc stayed in the game and finished it, yielding only an Andrelton Simmons single, notching two strikeouts and recording the five-out save. Jeff Banister still thinks Dyson could be the team’s closer, but if Leclerc gets some additional save chances in place of Dyson or Bush, it could be hard to take him out of the role.
Another Sam Dyson meltdown has everyone running to their waiver wires, but for who? Matt Bush is the fantasy favorite with a 97 mph and gaudy strikeout rate (26% since the start of 2016), but he’s getting an exam on the AC joint in his right shoulder and will be out for at least a few days. I tend to believe Jeremy Jeffress is the next-in-line even with a healthy Bush after notching 27 saves last year, but he lost the game after Dyson blew it on Tuesday night and has allowed runs in three of his five outing, so it’s not like he’s instilling a ton of confidence in manager Jeff Banister right now, either. We haven’t gotten much from Banister himself, though this non-committal comment from Evan Grant’s piece suggests it’s under review:
“We’ll evaluate all our options,” manager Jeff Banister said when asked about the closer situation.