The Daily Grind: A Fresh Release

If you weren’t paying close attention, you might have missed Trey Mancini’s pair of home runs. He was overshadowed by Giancarlo Stanton doing the same.

AGENDA

1. A New Release Point
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. A New Release Point

In his first start of the 2017 season, Josh Tomlin induced 10 ground balls out of 14 balls in play. Single games can have fluky results, but Tomlin has always been considered a fly ball pitcher. Maybe something is different. Maybe I’ve already spoiled it. Anyway, here’s a GIF of two charts. You’re looking at his release point – vertical on the y-axis and horizontal on the x-axis.

It’s not a huge shift, but it does appear Tomlin’s release point has shifted about an inch away from his center. If this isn’t simply a calibration error, we’d expect to see more movement on his fastballs. That would also help to explain all those ground balls. Let’s look.

His fastballs and changeup gained an extra three inches of arm side run. Perhaps that’s enough to jam hitters into dribbling grounders. More likely, they just need to adjust. Anyway, it’s interesting to see Tomlin drop his arm angle. He may even be fantasy relevant now.

2. Weather Reports

The Cubs might have a short delay while the ground crew deals with some morning rain. It’s set to stop right around game time. The sky may be a tad leaky in Detroit. A delay is unlikely. Otherwise, the league is free and clear of sky water.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Eleven games are split with four early and six late. Like yesterday, Cleveland is doing another weird 6:10pm start. Clowns.

Early Slate: Yu Darvish headlines the slate. He’s yet to have a truly Darvish-like outing. Through 12.1 innings, he has only 6.57 K/9 and 5.84 BB/9. It’s not entirely a fluke as his 8.2 percent swinging strike rate is way below his career norm. As somebody who traded a cheap Lance McCullers for him on ottoneu, he better figure out his stuff.

Brett Anderson is attractive because he faces the lefty prone Dodgers. Between Logan Forsythe and natural regression, I expect Los Angeles to be better against southpaws this season. Even so, they were stymied by Clayton Richard already. Anderson is a similar pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann was off to a great start last season before he was waylaid by injuries. His 2017 debut led to a good result, but his strikeout and whiff rates were low. Those need to be up around 8.00 K/9 for Zimmermann to return to his peak value.

Stack Targets: Ricky Nolasco, Chad Kuhl, Phil Hughes

Main Slate: Once again, there’s an obvious top name. It’s Madison Bumgarner hosting a mashful Rockies lineup (not that they’ve shown it yet). He’s opposed by Jon Gray. The Rockies righty has struggled with command and mistakes over the plate through two starts. There is some bad news with Bumgarner, you get no credit for his home runs.

I spent yesterday talking up Jimmy Nelson and his new changeup. I sure hope he sticks with the pitch. While throwing a good changeup won’t transform Nelson into an ace, another weapon is never a bad thing. The homer prone righty is visiting Cincinnati.

Robert Gsellman is visiting Miami. The Marlins offense has been hammering baseballs the last few days. At his best, Gsellman induces soft contact and limits home runs. He’s been a tad off his game thus far in 2017.

Stack Targets: Bronson Arroyo, Luis Severino, Matt Andriese, Jesse Hahn, Jason Vargas

4. Fade Fade Fade

As always, it’s hard to find usable contrarian picks in shallow contests.

Stars: Anthony Rizzo is facing a lefty. Not that he cares. He’ll probably get hit by a couple pitches.

Francisco Liriano was so terrible in his debut that nobody will use him today (me included). He always has top pitcher of the day upside. Even with Bumgarner in the same slate.

Josh Donaldson is DHing through an injured calf. That could temper ownership rates versus Kevin Gausman.

Trevor Story is icy cold, and he’s opposed by Bumgarner at AT&T Field. He has the power to homer anyway.

Bargains: Hyun-Jin Ryu looked like his old self at Coors Field. Now he has another difficult matchup against the Cubs. That’ll scare away most users.

Joey Gallo is powerful and could get lost in the shuffle at third base. I know he’s my fifth choice for the early contest. On the opposite side, people ignore Kole Calhoun because he lacks explosive power.

Jett Bandy has 20 home run power as a catcher. Poor man’s Brian McCann.

5. SaberSim Says…

Bumgarner, Darvish, Liriano, Gray, and Gausman are the top ranked pitchers. I have no qualms with that list. Ryan Braun, Billy Hamilton, Jonathan Villar, Joey Votto, and Eric Thames headline an all-GABP star squad.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Welcome back to the FanDuel leaderboard grbactacular (he’s already tied first on DraftKings). A fantastic night from Giancarlo Stanton coupled with an otherwise deep roster carried him to 180 points and the contest victory. The leaderboard is updated.

It’s another FanDuel day – $2 and 20 users. I promise we’ll get more DraftKings games later in the season.