All living beings must adapt to new conditions or else be drowned under the sands of time. The Daily Grind began in 2012 as a streaming column. I picked some pitchers and hitters I liked for the current and next day using the “sophisticated” measures that were popular over half a decade ago. At the time, TDG was hosted by The Hardball Times Fantasy Focus. It lives a pseudo-existence as an archived site.

Here’s an example from April of that inaugural year. A few highlights with comments in parenthesis:

• In shallow leagues, Chris Sale and Trevor Cahill may be available. (I’m not sure which of those is funnier)
• Carlos Gomez is creeping toward a full-time role by never striking out. (emphasis mine)
• Eric Thames will get the start against Jason Hammel. (proof of my long love affair with Thames, I actually recommended him twice)
• Dale Sveum has powers akin to the Pope. After a Carlos Marmol blown save, Sveum absolved Marmol of his sin. (younger me had funnier words)

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I’m barely getting these up before the start of the season, but given my track record with bold predictions, you probably shouldn’t listen to me anyway.

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Last year, I set a new personal record, hitting on four of my 10 bold predictions. Let’s go for five this time!

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Across the network recently, we’ve featured writers sharing their bold predictions for the impending 2017 season. Since I’m more of a follower than a leader with little sense of individuality, this is a path that I will also be traversing. However, I’ll be limiting my bold and sweeping declarations to the spot where I make my living on this site: the hot corner. Let’s look at a few potentially terribly, and very likely, misguided opinions that I have about the third base position heading into the new season.

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As you know, Stats, Inc. keeps track of every player’s draft position in every draft conducted by the National Fantasy Baseball League. As soon as there’s been a critical mass of drafts, in (as we recall) late January, it starts publishing each player’s Average Draft Position, and updates those numbers continuously as drafts accumulate. And as our regular readers know, we’ve been tracking ADP changes. Our theory is that aggregate ADP, which changes pretty lazily once there are enough drafts, often masks dramatic developments in ADP during more recent drafts, and that it’s useful to know about these developments. If a player you’re targeting has, say, an ADP of 225 over the course of 50 drafts, but has an ADP of, say, 200 in the ten most recent drafts, he’s probably going to go two rounds earlier than you expected, and if you want him you’ll have to budget for that fact.

Although Stats, Inc. doesn’t offer breakdowns of ADPs, NFBC offers a few, and the most useful is the “Since March 1” category. If you’re interested in Steven Wright, for example—we confess we’re not—it helps to know that his overall ADP is 379 but his ADP since March 1st is 339. But, we think, it helps even more to identify more recent ADP trends. With Wright, the 40-place jump partly conceals a jump from 347 (his ADP as of March 21st) to 322 (his ADP in the 41 drafts held from March 21st through March 25th). As far as we know, we’re the only ones tracking this kind of information, or at least the only ones willing to share it gratis. Read the rest of this entry »

This question has been asked of me: “what is the definition of collusion in fantasy sports?” Read the rest of this entry »

Spring Training Velocity Extravaganza

After my Tout Wars weekend, I found time to update the spring training velocities. Here are some pitchers seeing significant changes.

Cole Hamels

Hamels’s fastball average 91.5 mph on the 21st and down to 90.8 mph on the 26th. Last season it averaged 92.6 mph. I would be diving in more on Hamels but his velocity starts low every season.

While he starts slow, owners should closely monitor his velocity to make sure it starts ticking up.

Jake Arrieta

I am less optimistic on Arrieta. He is seeing a similar drop in velocity to Hamels at ~2.0 mph.

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As I did last year, I went through the rosters of all eleven ottoneu teams I’ve drafted to see which players most frequently found their way onto my roster. These aren’t always the the best or most exciting names, but they are the ones I felt had more value than acquisition cost.

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This past weekend, a collection of fantasy baseball veteran nerds gathered in New York City for our annual Tout Wars auction and after-party fun. It’s always one of the best weekends of the year, and this year I got to hang out with fellow RotoGraphers Paul Sporer, Jeff Zimmerman, Al Melchior, and Justin Mason. We represented! Oh, and dare I forget my AL-Only league competitor and representer of every fantasy baseball site on the Internet, Jason Collette.

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3/28/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB

Strategy Section: Tout Wars Preview & Review

• Breakdown of Paul’s H2H Team
• Review of Jason’s AL-Only gameplan

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