ADP Report: The Final Countdown

As you know, Stats, Inc. keeps track of every player’s draft position in every draft conducted by the National Fantasy Baseball League. As soon as there’s been a critical mass of drafts, in (as we recall) late January, it starts publishing each player’s Average Draft Position, and updates those numbers continuously as drafts accumulate. And as our regular readers know, we’ve been tracking ADP changes. Our theory is that aggregate ADP, which changes pretty lazily once there are enough drafts, often masks dramatic developments in ADP during more recent drafts, and that it’s useful to know about these developments. If a player you’re targeting has, say, an ADP of 225 over the course of 50 drafts, but has an ADP of, say, 200 in the ten most recent drafts, he’s probably going to go two rounds earlier than you expected, and if you want him you’ll have to budget for that fact.

Although Stats, Inc. doesn’t offer breakdowns of ADPs, NFBC offers a few, and the most useful is the “Since March 1” category. If you’re interested in Steven Wright, for example—we confess we’re not—it helps to know that his overall ADP is 379 but his ADP since March 1st is 339. But, we think, it helps even more to identify more recent ADP trends. With Wright, the 40-place jump partly conceals a jump from 347 (his ADP as of March 21st) to 322 (his ADP in the 41 drafts held from March 21st through March 25th). As far as we know, we’re the only ones tracking this kind of information, or at least the only ones willing to share it gratis.

So here, without editorial comment, is a list of players whose ADPs in the last 41 drafts through March 25th differ by at least 10 places in either direction from their “Since March 1st” ADPs as of that date. The reason for any given guy’s guys jump will, in most cases, be obvious, but the point here isn’t to tell you something about the player that nobody else knows. It’s to tell you how the market is reacting to information that everybody else knows.

First, here are the players whose ADPs decreased in the last bunch of drafts. In other words, they are more popular than they may seem to be, and will go earlier than you may have hoped they would. The first number is the “Since March 1st” ADP; the second number is the “Last 41” ADP; and the third is the difference between the two.

Greg Holland 247-205-42
Alex Wood 324-288-36
Greg Bird 207-176-31
Danny Valencia 321-300-21
Pablo Sandoval 324-305-19
Francisco Liriano 273-255-18
Michael Wacha 284-267-17
Cam Bedrosian 184-167-17
Steven Wright 339-322-17
Trevor Bauer 303-289-14
Michael Brantley 222-209-13
Brandon Drury 240-228-12
Nick Castellanos 196-184-12
Francisco Cervelli 309-297-12
Mike Leake 349-338-11
Keon Broxton 146-135-11
Ryon Healy 198-187-11
Max Kepler 249-239-10
Marcus Stroman 140-130-10

And here are the guys who went in the other direction: their ADPs got higher; that is, they got less popular and are being taken later in the draft than it might look like.

Adam Ottavino 211-261-50
J.D. Martinez 58-114-37
Didi Gregorius 284-319-35
Jung Ho Kang 298-329-31
Raisel Iglesias 199-230-31
Jason Kipnis 141-168-27
David Price 101-127-26
Mike Montgomery 310-335-25
Anthony DeSclafani 284-307-23
Lucas Giolito 345-368-23
Freddy Galvis 347-368-21
Tyler Thornburgh 331-351-20
Sonny Gray 265-284-19
Ian Desmond 80-99-19
Tucker Barnhart 357-376-19
Ryan Schimpf 337-356-19
Drew Pomeranz 236-254-18
Shawn Kelley 210-227-17
Chris Carter 313-330-17
Luke Weaver 343-360-17
Tom Murphy 249-265-16
Chris Herrmann 332-346-14
Hector Neris 262-276-14
Martin Prado 353-367-14
Devin Mesoraco 295-308-13
Chris Tillman 319-332-13
Alex Reyes 260-273-13
Josh Tomlin 358-371-13
Adam Wainwright 231-243-12
Sandy Leon 279-281-12
Carlos Rodon 199-210-11
Nick Markakis 361-372-11
Cameron Maybin 308-318-10
Mallex Smith 345-355-10
Yasiel Puig 222-232-10
Kyle Barraclough 331-341-10
Julio Urias 177-187-10
Nate Jones 278-288-10
Luis Severino 338-348-10

And now, if you haven’t got anything better to do, name Mr. Consistency—the guy whose ADP has fluctuated least (by no more than one place in either direction) since we started keeping track. Obviously, he’s a hitter; he’s a veteran with a consistent and consistently good statistical record over a period of years; he has an established, clearly-defined role on his team with little chance of losing it; and he’s healthy now, and historically not too injury-prone. The answer’s on Twitter @birchwoodbroth2. Have fun with it.