Mike Podhorzer’s 2017 Bold Predictions

Last year, I set a new personal record, hitting on four of my 10 bold predictions. Let’s go for five this time!

1. Taijuan Walker posts a sub-3.50 ERA

This wouldn’t have looked very bold heading into the 2015 season and perhaps not even heading into the 2016 season. The former top prospect throws hard, though his velocity has trended down since his arrival, but it hasn’t translated into much more than league average strikeout rate marks, and over parts of two full seasons, hasn’t gotten his ERA below 4.22. So what’s the cure for a disappointing former top prospect? A move to the National League! Chase Field is no pitcher friendly venue, but the opportunity to face the pitcher a couple of times a start will boost the strikeout rate, at the very least.

Then there’s this — he’s tied for third in spring strikeouts, having whiffed 28 of the 94 batters he has faced for a near 30% strikeout rate. We know to largely take spring stats with a grain of salt (especially ERA and batting average, which hold 0% predictive value), but strikeout and walk rates are meaningful. I first discovered this back in 2012, and then Dan Rosenheck ran a much more exhaustive study in 2015 and came to the same conclusion. Apparently, Walker has been working on his slider this spring and “think it’s going to be a big pitch”. I have no idea if we could credit the slider usage with the strikeout rate spike or it’s just small sample randomness or watered down competition. But he already possesses a hard fastball and groundball generating splitter. The move to the NL, plus the potential for a plus third pitch makes him a serious breakout candidate.

2. Adam Duvall blasts 40 homers

For a guy who swatted 33 homers last year and knocked in 103, I’m baffled by the lack of love by fantasy owners during this draft season. Yes, his plate discipline needs work, but that power is legit. He posted a .301 ISO at Triple-A back in 2014, and then followed up with a .266 mark at the level the following year. And because he’s an extreme flyballer, he only required a 17.8% HR/FB rate to notch those 33 taters. Guess what? He has even more upside. His xHR/FB rate was even higher at 19.4% and his minor league strikeout rates suggest there’s potential for improvement on that front as well.

3. Nate Karns posts a lower ERA and WHIP than Aaron Sanchez

I touched on my Karns love in yesterday’s AL Tout Wars recap. The CliffsNotes versiion is that if you’re a fly ball pitcher, Kaufmann Stadium is one of the best venues to call home. The Royals defense figures to be a fantastic unit once again, especially that outfield (and the less Jorge Soler plays there the better), and the park is tied as the fourth toughest to hit a homer in. This should benefit Karns tremendously, as he has been a slight fly ball pitcher in his career compared to league average and owns a career 14% HR/FB rate.

On the other hand, Aaron Sanchez has become the 2017 version of 2016 Dallas Keuchel. The extreme groundballer with a low BABIP that everyone is falling all over themselves to try justifying as sustainable because he just looks so darn good on the mound. Except that he doesn’t induce pop-ups, and allowed a Soft% and Hard% barely better than the league average. If he was such a weak contact king, it should appear in some stat that isn’t BABIP. So I’m not believing it, and paired with his average strikeout rate, expect his ERA to rise toward his 4.00+ SIERA.

4. Nelson Cruz hits less than .260 with fewer than 30 homers

BOLD BABY BOLD. How often does a hitter in his mid-30s conclude his last two seasons with the two highest HR/FB rates of his career? Oh, and then paired with posting the second and fourth highest BABIP marks? It’s a rhetorical question, but the point is that’s not how hitters are supposed to age. While Cruz’s xHR/FB rate validates last year’s HR/FB mark, it wasn’t convinced of his 2015 mark. But either way, we’re talking about a 36 year old whose career HR/FB rate sits at 19.6%, and how often do we expect a player that old to exceed his career average?

His xBABIP last year was just .290, versus a .320 actual mark, as he was one of the rare righties who faced the shift. So the batting average is going to come down. Add up all those risks to the prospect of an old guy getting injured and there’s a far higher likelihood of this happening than you might think. Remember there was once a time when Cruz was injury prone, but he’s avoided the injury bug the last three years.

5. Wil Myers combines for fewer than 35 homers + steals

Weeeeeeee. In last year’s bold predictions, I was all aboard the Myers train, proclaiming he’d hit 25 homers and knock in 90 runs. And he did! But now it’s time to get off the train as its conductor was actually a blind squirrel who found a nut. By that I mean that Myers didn’t actually deserve his 28 homers. His xHR/FB was essentially the same as his 2015 mark, but somehow he managed to boost his actual HR/FB rate by five percentage points. Without another large step forward in actual power, that HR/FB rate is going to drop right back to where it began.

And the steals? The Padres ran like wild last year, will it happen again? Myers has decent speed, but he had attempted 13 fewer steals in about 300 more plate appearances in his entire career before 2016.

6. Jaime Garcia outearns Danny Salazar

Garcia is coming off the worst season of his career, as a ridiculous 20.2% HR/FB rate pushed his ERA all the way up to 4.67. But his skills remained respectable, and quite Aaron Sanchez like, and he owns a career 3.57 ERA/3.60 SIERA/1.28 WHIP. He’s no model of health, but has generally pitched well when he has been able to take the mound.

I will never predict a pitcher lands on the DL, but Salazar is the pitcher I’m closest to getting to that point. He missed time with arm issues last season en route to an inflated 10.8% walk rate and now he’s tied for the spring lead in walks with 14, having issued a free pass to 12.4% of the batters he has faced. The strikeouts mean you shouldn’t be jumping out of any windows, but the control issues scream elbow issues here.

7. Ryan Schimpf hits more homers than Bryce Harper

Jumbo Schimpf! Schimpf hit the ball in the air an absurd 64.9% of the time, ranking second in FB% among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances since 2002. That’s quite the feat. Because of the insane FB%, he needed just a 17.7% HR/FB rate to go on a 36 homers pace extrapolated over 600 plate appearances. Since batted ball type distribution is relatively stable, he should once again hit tons of fly balls. Perhaps not to this degree, but near league leading levels. Oh, and his 2016 xHR/FB rate was a robust 24.1%. You mean he could hit for even more power? You betcha.

Ohhhh Bryce Harper. That historically awesome 2015 will always remain in our hearts. Unfortunately, now everyone thinks that’s your normal level of performance to rebound to. Except that it seems like the clear outlier among all your seasons. His xHR/FB rate validated his actual HR/FB being cut in half last year and he’s seemingly always playing through nagging injuries, so we can’t just assume better because of good health. Remember, he’s hit more than 24 homers just once in a season.

8. Byung ho Park swats 30 homers

This makes me appear like a bandwagon jumper, but he made my 2017 HR/FB Surgers at the beginning of February, way before his spring training power barrage, and just a couple of days before he was designated for assignment. It was silly that the Twins DFAd him given his obviously elite power. His 26.5% xHR/FB rate was the 10th highest on my spreadsheet that includes 883 player seasons from 2015 to 2016. And his Brls/BBE ranked third highest in baseball. His spring may have won him the starting DH role and I like him more now than I did at this time last year, if you can believe that.

9. Shelby Miller strikes out 200 batters

Miller’s fastball velocity is way up this spring and I’m a sucker for spring velocity surgers. He always relied on a strong four-seamer, as his secondary offerings were never anything special. But then he lost his fastball last year and everything went to $hit. Now if this newfound velocity holds, he’ll be throwing the hardest he ever has, which should lead to a rebound in his fastball effectiveness, and perhaps play up his cutter and curve. Back to the spring stats again, his performance has validated what the extra velocity could do — he has punched out 22 of the 69 batters he has faced, for a Kershawian 31.9% strikeout rate. He nearly struck out a batter per inning back in 2013. Can he do it again and throw 200 innings?

10. Mark Canha outhomers Christian Yelich

So Yelich just tripled his home run total, thanks to a near doubling of his HR/FB rate, since his FB% remains a pathetic 20%. But that HR/FB rate surge wasn’t real — his xHR/FB rate was a far less impressive 15.3%, which was only a couple of percentage points higher than his actual 2015 mark. Since he rarely pulls his fly balls, it’s a bit harder to sustain a high barreled ball rate. Pulling the ball more would help, but then he would sacrifice BABIP and batting average. So he’s due for a drop in homers back to the low teens.

Canha missed the majority of 2016 to injury, after enjoying a surprise 2015. He’s back in a platoon role, expected to start only against lefties. However, Canha can play both the outfield and first base and the Athletics are trotting out Yonder Alonso, who just posted a .299 wOBA and -0.3 WAR, at the latter position. There could even be an opening at designated hitter if Ryon Healy proves to be a fluke. There are multiple paths to playing time here and in 2015, Canha posted an xHR/FB rate of 14.7%, suggesting he has real home run upside.