The 2016 performance of Todd Frazier was something of an enigma. Or was it?

While he flashed his typical brand of power and (it’s with extreme reluctance that I even mention this) turned in a solid RBI total, he also featured a slash with a .225 average and .302 on-base percentage, both of which were among the worst at the third base position. His strikeout rate, at 24.5%, was the highest of his career. Those are certainly factors that will cause some prospective owners to shy away moving forward.

At the same time, there are other elements of Frazier’s game that still leave him as one of the more intriguing players that the hot corner has to offer. While some may shy away, others will jump at the opportunity to get that kind of power into their lineup, even with the potential drawbacks. With that in mind, what’s the correct course of action in regard to Todd Frazier?

Read the rest of this entry »

This is not a “sleeper” list. Read the rest of this entry »

The subject of calculating replacement levels is a touchy one in ottoneu. Most people who play probably have some opinion on how this process should occur and, if you partake in any of the various ottoneu communities, you have probably witnessed some of the debates from both sides.

I tend to enjoy the process of determining replacement levels and, as I have gone through this process in the past, I wanted to take some time to divulge on my process as we near 2017 draft season. Before we do, we need to acknowledge some methodology or this will quickly turn into a debate of semantics. There are two ways that replacement levels can be defined. This is either as a specific point per game (P/G) or point per inning total (P/IP) or as the nth player ranked at a position. For example, I could say, replacement level for SP is about 4.00 P/IP, or I could say that replacement level for SP is about the 90th SP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Spring training is just days away, and that’s our queue to take stock of bullpens around the majors. This is the first of six installments that will take a look at how bullpens are lining up, one division at a time. We begin with the National League Central.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s xBABIP week and on Monday, I unveiled the latest incarnation of my equation, this time incorporating shift data. Then yesterday, I analyzed leaguewide shift data trends and unearthed some interesting tidbits. Today, it’s finally time to talk some names. We’ll begin by looking at the players that enjoyed the biggest gains using the new xBABIP equation versus Alex Chamberlain’s 2015 version that I had been using as my primary go-to, and also the biggest losers.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is our last position in the ADP previews, though I’m breaking it up into two parts (top 20 here and then the rest). Relief is especially interesting on the fantasy landscape because fantasy managers have such varied approaches. Some swear by locking up a superstar in the early rounds.

Hell, some swear by double-tapping studs if they have a pick on one of the ends, especially in a format like the NFBC that bars trading. Others gladly draft the crusty, unspectacular guys who just rack up saves regardless of their skills and ratios. Then there’s the group that refuses to expend many resources on closers and focus either bottom of the barrel, closers-in-waiting, or in most cases both.

I lean toward the high end. I have no issues spending an early pick on a superstar closer because of how much they can help in strikeouts and even the ratios. Nabbing someone who can pop a triple-digit strikeout total allows you some leeway on your starters, too. Like I said earlier, today we’ll focus on the first 20 closers (and some of their handcuffs) and then I’ll dive in on the low-end closers and hidden gems to cap off the series.

Read the rest of this entry »

Strange things happen in holds leagues. The extra pressure to roster relievers often leads to inefficiencies on offense. Meanwhile, the bar is set very high for pitching rates since many owners try to start three closers and three setup men. In my experience, chasing both reliever categories usually comes at the cost of mediocre offensive performance. Today, let’s discuss my latest scheme for having my cake and eating it too (ooh, more cake!)

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I unveiled the newest incarnation of the xBABIP equation, this time tacking on a shift-related component. The defensive shift has been all the rage these past couple of years as teams are utilizing data more and more for any incremental advantage they could find. Finally with the Splits Leaderboard, we have all the data at our disposal to dive into. Let’s jump in, shall we?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, our own Brad Johnson discussed unpredictable auction values in “Rationality Will Ruin You”. I 100% agree with his premise. Unexpected inflation exists but so does a solution. By charting out the desired and the potential outcomes before an auction, an owner can remove a ton of auction frustration.

Brad examined the elite player section of the draft where the actual auction values are higher than most people’s predicted values. Owners refuse to pay these high values but instead end up spending their resources on near replacement level talent. The following simple chart helps an owner deal with the problem along with uneven hitter/pitcher mix and outlining a personal auction strategy. The process is similar to the one used in Winning Fantasy Baseball by Larry Schechter but with a few more additions. Here’s the procedure.

Step 1. Get auction values

This step could be as simple as using our auction calculator or creating your own projections like our own Mike Podhozer does. To set the pitcher/hitter mix, use the league’s historic mix or just go with standard 70/30 split.

Read the rest of this entry »

2/5/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @almelchiorBB
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day (1:50)

• How psyched are you that Logan Morrison is back??
• Is this the best video ever??

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

• Tampa Bay Rays
  • Will Rasmus and Dickerson be platooned as RosterResource suggests? (6:30)
  • Does Nick Franklin have playing time to make an impact? (9:00)
  • Is this the Blake Snell breakout season? (11:45)
  • Is Alex Colome a top 10 closer? (24:16)
  • Favorite Targets: Colby Rasmus, Alex Cobb (31:17)
  • Stayaways: Brad Miller (36:30)
  • Matt Andriese discussion (40:34)
  • Off-the-Radar: Mallex Smith
  • Wilson Ramos discussion (54:45)
  • Impact Prospects? Jose De Leon, Brent Honeywell, Jake Bauers, etc… (43:20)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS