The Biggest Winners and Losers of the New xBABIP

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February 8, 2017

It’s xBABIP week and on Monday, I unveiled the latest incarnation of my equation, this time incorporating shift data. Then yesterday, I analyzed leaguewide shift data trends and unearthed some interesting tidbits. Today, it’s finally time to talk some names. We’ll begin by looking at the players that enjoyed the biggest gains using the new xBABIP equation versus Alex Chamberlain’s 2015 version that I had been using as my primary go-to, and also the biggest losers.

I decided to combine all seasons for each player and take the averages, and also including only fantasy relevant names.

New xBABIP Winners
Player LD% True FB% True IFFB% Hard% Spd Oppo%* Pull GB While Shifted%** BABIP Old xBABIP New xBABIP New xBABIP – Old xBABIP
Keon Broxton 25.0% 29.3% 0.9% 43.3% 6.5 20.0% 0.0% 0.373 0.361 0.381 0.020
Trea Turner 25.2% 29.7% 2.0% 34.8% 8.7 22.0% 1.3% 0.388 0.353 0.364 0.011
Starling Marte 22.1% 24.7% 1.8% 31.9% 7.4 21.5% 0.5% 0.356 0.339 0.347 0.009
Tim Anderson 20.8% 22.2% 2.7% 32.3% 7.0 22.7% 0.0% 0.375 0.335 0.342 0.008
Corey Seager 22.4% 27.6% 0.3% 43.3% 4.9 22.6% 5.0% 0.371 0.355 0.360 0.005
Tyler Naquin 23.4% 27.7% 2.4% 38.5% 6.0 26.8% 1.1% 0.411 0.350 0.355 0.005
Steven Souza Jr. 22.5% 31.0% 3.5% 33.1% 4.6 21.6% 1.3% 0.333 0.317 0.321 0.004
Alex Bregman 28.2% 37.6% 5.4% 32.0% 6.2 24.7% 1.0% 0.317 0.326 0.330 0.003
Christian Yelich 22.5% 16.3% 0.3% 34.9% 5.2 30.0% 0.7% 0.366 0.361 0.365 0.003
Averages 23.6% 27.3% 2.1% 36.0% 6.3 23.5% 1.2% 0.366 0.344 0.352 0.007
*Oppo% was part of the old equation
**Pull GB While Shifted% is part of the new equation

So you were excited about Keon Broxton’s mix of power and speed, huh? Well perhaps you should get even more excited. His xBABIP (and actual BABIP for that matter) was already through the roof, thanks to his combination of speed and power, his big line drive rate, and ability to avoid the dreaded pop-up. But his Oppo% was below average, which the old xBABIP cared about, but the new one doesn’t. Instead, the new xBABIP sees that lovely 0% Pull GB While Shifted% and celebrates that he’s not shiftable. At least an enormous BABIP will take some of the sting out of his high strikeout rate.

Trea Turner! As if he needed any help to push him up your draft list. Funny, I just finished my projection of him the other day and thought to myself “wow, this is quite the fantasy line, I can’t imagine he’s being drafted with such expectations in mind…he may be undervalued!” And then I checked his NFBC ADP and find that he’s being drafted 11th overall and was apparently even selected first overall at least once! So much for thinking he could yield a profit. While I do think that his fantasy line represents value in that range, I also believe that it’s absurd to draft a guy 11th that has recorded just 368 MLB plate appearances.

Was Corey Seager supposed to be this good this fast? Damn.

I’m so conflicted on Tyler Naquin. On the one hand, he showed power and speed, and legit BABIP skills. On the other, he never showed this kind of power in the minors and probably won’t start against lefties.

Alex Bregman Fan Club assemble! I just assumed he would be overvalued this year until I projected him. Now I see the potential for five-category production and at 92 overall and 10th among third baseman, doesn’t appear overly expensive.

I really want to see a 30%+ fly ball rate Christian Yelich, just to see what would happen to his BABIP and his power.

New xBABIP Losers
Player LD% True FB% True IFFB% Hard% Spd Oppo%* Pull GB While Shifted%** BABIP Old xBABIP New xBABIP New xBABIP – Old xBABIP
Scott Schebler 18.4% 26.5% 2.6% 33.3% 4.1 25.3% 21.5% 0.312 0.318 0.284 -0.034
Travis Shaw 19.5% 39.5% 4.2% 31.3% 3.0 26.6% 10.3% 0.302 0.294 0.268 -0.027
Chris Davis 22.8% 40.5% 1.8% 38.7% 2.4 23.0% 17.9% 0.302 0.319 0.293 -0.026
Hyun Soo Kim 20.6% 26.1% 0.8% 30.2% 2.4 29.0% 11.7% 0.345 0.323 0.298 -0.025
Brian McCann 20.3% 39.7% 4.3% 33.1% 1.8 19.4% 15.6% 0.246 0.285 0.261 -0.024
Mike Moustakas 18.6% 36.7% 6.6% 30.2% 2.2 24.5% 9.7% 0.252 0.276 0.252 -0.024
Pedro Alvarez 18.4% 31.8% 2.8% 37.8% 2.6 22.0% 16.9% 0.284 0.309 0.286 -0.024
Nomar Mazara 21.4% 27.3% 2.4% 28.7% 2.4 27.5% 11.6% 0.299 0.312 0.289 -0.023
Averages 20.0% 33.5% 3.2% 32.9% 2.6 24.7% 14.4% 0.293 0.305 0.279 -0.026
*Oppo% was part of the old equation
**Pull GB While Shifted% is part of the new equation

Surprise, surprise, this list is composed entirely of left-handed hitters who pull tons of grounders into the shift! Caveat: the old xBABIP equation produced much higher BABIP results on average than the new one, which is more in line with actual BABIP. So the loser list is much longer than the winner list.

I think Scott Schebler is a nice sleeper this year and he’ll get a second chance to claim a starting outfield job. He has power, some speed, and doesn’t strike out too much, but he needs to stop pulling grounders into the shift, as it’s liable to kill his batting average.

Travis Shaw is going to really miss the BABIP-inflating ways of The Green Monster and he’ll also have to battle the shift dragons as well. However, he should enjoy a nice home run boost, going from one of the worst parks for lefty homers to one of the best.

Chris Davis generally has a very good batted ball profile, except for the whole pulled grounder thing. Fun fact: in 2016, he was facing the shift on 96.8% of his balls in play.

And that’s what happened to Brian McCann’s BABIP! Before 2012, he never posted a BABIP below .282, and held a career mark of .300. Then since 2012 when we started collecting shift data, his BABIP hasn’t even topped .269 and his mark sits at just .244. He’s the perfect example of how the shift could damper a hitter’s offensive performance.

Everything is trending in the right direction for Mike Moustakas, but he continues to pull far too many grounders into the shift (the average in the table is low only because it includes 2012 and 2013, when the shift was far less in vogue).

Meh, Nomar Mazara simply doesn’t excite me and his penchant for pulling grounders into the shift is just another data point to justify my lack of enthusiasm. He’s super young, of course, but for this year alone, don’t expect a major breakout.





 

Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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auclairkeithbc
7 years ago

Will there be a place to see continually updated xBABIP or other x-stats on the site? I think a lot of us would appreciate being able to see running totals instead of looking at updates every few months. Thanks!

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Mike Podhorzermember
7 years ago
Reply to  auclairkeithbc

Unfortunately, it would take a whole lot for a writer-developed metric to make it into the player pages. For now, you’ll have to either run it yourself or wait for my periodic updates.

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