Actually Read This Intro

Today I have a weird thought experiment. You’ll need to pay attention for a moment. Back at the start of November, I secretly began my Way Too Early Rankings with a post about relievers. This article. As I was about to schedule it, friend Eno requested me to post my rankings in order (i.e. C, 1B, etc.), and kindly furnish End of Season rankings first. So this article was mothballed for two months.

What follows is that same article, unedited. I have provided commentary to my commentary in italics. The lesson is pretty simple – relief pitchers can experience rapid shifts in value. Now, let’s return to two months ago…

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So according to Brad Johnson’s end of season value compilation, Brandon Kintzler lost fantasy owners $4.20 in value. But that’s not really an accurate way of describing his contributions to fantasy owners this year. Glen Perkins opened the season as the Twins closer, but made it just a couple of weeks before going down with a shoulder injury. The Twins scrambled to find a replacement and eventually settled on Kintzler, who did a fine job. He earned his first save on June 8, and from that time, posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with, while recording 17 saves. That stat package isn’t worth much in a 12-team mixed league, but likely a couple of bucks from the time he was actually rostered as a closer.

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Projecting future closers is always difficult. We can use a number of different frameworks that factor in environment, talent, pitch quality, and arsenals, and still scratch our heads marveling at how relievers are used. It’s a tricky proposition given the number of variables involved. Add to that the changing nature of bullpen roles, it’s not inconceivable, as we saw with Andrew Miller’s usage, that a progressive manager might not use his best reliever in a way that’s conducive to racking up saves.

In fantasy, saves are expensive and the inherent volatility of bullpens can make chasing them on draft day a dubious endeavor. The Chacon Zone’s goal is to identify non-closing relief aces. Those pitchers whose contributions in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, despite low innings totals, are significant enough to offset the lack of saves that you’d receive by rostering a closer in his place. By banking on talent, rather than simply opportunity, we can identify cheap relievers not only possessing high floors but also high ceilings should they be thrust into a ninth inning role. Think Edwin Diaz from last year. Luckily for us, the new Splits Leaderboard, provides yet another tool by which we can (attempt to) identify these pitchers. By isolating performance in high leverage situations, we can not only identify talented relievers but those whose managers entrust them in the most pivotal moments.

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Alas, we have come to both the final 2016 Pod Projection recap and the last review of my 2016 preseason articles! We arrive at Raisel Iglesias, whose projections were all likely to be wrong, because we all figured he’d remain in the starting rotation. Instead, he ended up making just five starts, missed a month and a half with a shoulder injury, and then return as a reliever. He even ended up recording six saves! But let’s see what I projected and what actually transpired anyway.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Jose Peraza (UTL): The Reds didn’t have a lot of luck with rookies in 2016 but Peraza showed well in 72 games while spending time in the middle infield and the outfield. Despite his decent performance, he doesn’t have a clear shot at a starting gig in 2017 unless the Reds can find a taker for veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips – or one of their inexperienced outfielders struggles in the spring. Peraza, 22, hit more than .320 as a rookie and also stole more than 20 bases. Unfortunately, he was also caught stealing 10 times and walked less than 3% of the time. With some polish, the young athlete has impact potential in both the field and on the base paths although he needs to be more patient and get on base more consistently without putting all the pressure on his contact rate.

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Thus the series is concluded. Setting the reliever replacement level in the FanGraphs auction calculator is tricky. I did my best. You may think the values smell fishy, in which case you’re free to tinker with them. The top names certainly look correct, but it’s a bit jarring to see players like Kelvin Herrera and Dellin Betances score so poorly. Maybe that’s just a reflection of me and my biases. I expect Herrera and Betances to tally $8 even without earning saves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

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Alas, we have reached the end of our Steamer and I reviews and I left the best for last…just kidding. Though I was surprisingly far more bullish on Sonny Gray than Steamer was, his season was an unquestioned disaster. So we certainly know whose forecast was better before even beginning our deep dive! But let’s get to the two projections sets anyway and compare what Steamer and I were expecting versus what actually transpired.

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12/18/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

 Leading Off: Question of the Day 

• How will SVs breakdown in MIA w/Brad Ziegler & Junichi Tazawa in the mix?

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Will Brian Dozier get dealt?
• Will TB trade an SP?
• Will DET trade a stud?
• Will HOU trade a bat?

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There are some guys I know I’m very unlikely to roster in a given season based on their cost. Let me acknowledge the obvious axiom that every player has their price, so if these guys all fell well below their current perceived prices (I did get some ADP data from Fantrax.com and I’ve been in a handful of drafts already because I’m insane), I’d likely pounce, but as it currently stands I just don’t see it. Without further ado, here are 10 guys I probably won’t be rostering in 2017 drafts.

Brian Dozier

Dozier had a fantastic 2016 with career-highs in HR, RBI, and AVG while approaching previous highs in R and SB. Perhaps the craziest part of it all was that he spotted the league two months (.624 OPS through May), but the surge has pushed him into the 3rd-4th round area. While the cost doesn’t require a full repeat, I just don’t think I want to pay that for what I think will be something like .255-28-15 from a 30-year old at a deep position. Flyball and hard contact jumps support the power boost, but his 18% HR/FB was also a career-high by quite a bit (previous high of 13%).

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Time to talk a little Kyle Schwarber

I touched on it yesterday, but Schwarber’s fantasy value is going to fluctuate a ton depending on each league’s settings. In all my keeper leagues, he is getting the Utility tag because he didn’t make the minimum five games played last year (just two games in the outfield). I can’t emphasize enough, know your league settings. Most leagues require five starts until a player is eligible at a position, so I see him getting outfield eligibility the first or second week depending on the schedule and weather.

For him to get the five games at catcher to gain eligibility, let me say I am skeptical of him catching just one game, let alone five. Just to make sure I wasn’t off kilter, at least on this subject, I ask my Twitter followers when they thought he would reach the five games.
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