One item is always hanging over my head once the season ends, is the final clean disabled list report in which I have published every year since 2010. This morning, I completed finalizing the list and it is now time to run some queries. Most of the general information will be available in my annual article at The Hardball Times later this month or early next month.

For today’s MASH Report, I am going to publish my yearly starting pitcher disabled list chances. For this report, I have always incorporate the following factors.

• Age: The older the pitcher, the more the injury risk (+1% point increase each year older)
• Injury history: Nothing predicts future injuries like past injuries (+10% points for each season of the past three on the DL).
• Games Started: A pitcher needs to show they can throw for an entire season without breaking down (-3% points for each full season up to three).

Every year the average disabled list chance hovers around 40% which works out to two out of every five starters in a rotation will miss some time. Some teams will get hit with more injuries while others less.

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It might be hard to imagine now after his 36 big league homers, but just two short years ago everyone questioned how well Jung Ho Kang’s power would translate from the Korean Baseball Organization to Major League Baseball.  Many assumed the power would be substantially reduced, and Kang’s leg kick, and his timing mechanisms along with it, would suffer at the hands of superior pitching.  Well, his rookie campaign last season put those fears to rest pretty quickly, when he hit .287/.355/.461, including 15 HR, over 467 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the season ended prematurely when he suffered a terrible knee injury while attempting to turn a double play.

Kang returned to play on May 6th and immediately returned to the same standards of production for Pirates. He lost a few miles per hour off his average exit velocity, but his average launch angle increased, netting lower BABIP, lower batting average, more fly balls and more home runs. Overall, this turned into a 10 point increase in wOBA. This may have been influenced by luck to some degree, because his xOBA in both seasons are effectively identical, at .347 in 2015 and .345 in 2016.  No matter how you look at it, though, Kang had two months in 2016 that really stand out on the scoresheet: July and August- but before we get to that we’re going to have to talk about what happened in June.

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Nolan Arenado didn’t have many flaws in 2015. He played in 157 games, hit 42 home runs, struck out just 16.5 percent of his plate appearances, and carried a .287 batting average that was supported by a sustainable .284 BABIP. But this season, Arenado still found a way to make a major improvement. He nearly doubled his walk rate from 5.1 percent to 9.8 percent, which increased his on-base percentage by 41 points and runs total by 19 without making much of an impact on any of the rest of his statistics. He was the No. 1 fantasy third baseman this year, and we project him to be the No. 2 fantasy third baseman next season.

When a player is that productive, there typically isn’t much else that needs to be said for fantasy purposes. Still, I’m always fascinated by the elite Rockies players because of their extreme ballpark, and Arenado has followed the same path that players like Larry Walker and Troy Tulowitzki blazed before him.

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Though we knew that Jonathan Villar entered the 2016 season with the every day shortstop job in Milwaukee, we were so certain he wouldn’t hold onto that role for very long. You see, the Brewers had top prospect Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and we all figured he would be up by June. Instead, Villar got off to a strong start and then kept hitting, and Arcia didn’t end up debuting until August. The team eventually made room for both of them in their lineup, as Villar shifted over to third. Because Villar got that extended opportunity and ran with it (pun intended), he ended up ranking as the fourth most valuable third baseman (his shortstop rank will be published soon) and earning $26.40. How many of you expected him to earn even $10?!

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11/09/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
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Guest Details:

• Doug Thorburn
• Sammy Reid
• Baseballholics Anonymous

Guest Rundown:

• Biggest 2016 Takeaway
• Divisive Players:
  • Bryce Harper
  • Trea Turner
  • Gary Sanchez
  • Javier Baez
• Effect of Playoff RP Usage
• Pick Analysis 6th Rd and Later
  • 2 They Liked
  • 2 They Didn’t

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As many surely are, I’m finding it particularly difficult to write about baseball today. And it’ll be a while before the sting of the events of November 8th wears off. More than four years, probably. But in this instance, I must press on. And since we’re likely saying goodbye to a lot of things that we enjoy about the United States (in the most dramatic sense possible), it’s probably appropriate to say goodbye to someone that I’ve really come to admire as a third baseman in Matt Carpenter.

Not that Carpenter is disappearing from the St. Louis Cardinals in the way that many of our American principles are set to disappear from mainstream society. But the Cardinals announced earlier this week that he’d likely become the Cards’ everyday first baseman in 2017. This was a transition that became more apparent down the stretch this past year, with Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, and Jhonny Peralta set to make up the remainder of the infield by the time next season rolls around.

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Stolen Bases from Third Base

Third base is traditionally a position to pick up some of your team’s power and any stolen bases production was an afterthought. With the steady decline of stolen bases over the past decade, a third base position (or even a corner infield spot with first basemen on the decline) can be an opportunity to pick up some steals. The number of stolen bases from third basemen has shown the following trend:

The third base pool has its four big sluggers (Arenado, Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado), but not every team can roster these studs. Some teams will need to move down the food chain and roster the likes of Eduardo Nunez (40 SB), Jose Ramirez (22 SB), or Hernan Perez (34 SB). While some of these stolen base sources have multi-position eligibility, don’t be afraid to roster a speedster at third base or corner if a value presents itself in the middle infield. Using the 2016 15-team mixed LABR league as an example, it takes around 140 SB (11 per player) and 295 HR (23 per player). It doesn’t matter how an owner gets to these totals just as long as they do.

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Last Wednesday, I took some time to discuss why you should play Ottoneu. I think Ottoneu is a great fantasy format for anyone who has a sabermetric leaning. Those who play are hyper-involved sports fans who crave a deeper fantasy experience than a casual work league. However, I can totally understand why there are times where the rules/gameplay could seem daunting to a newcomer. This does not need to be the case. I want to help bridge that gap. Today, I wanted to take some time to build off of this and discuss how you learn to play the format. Since the scope of Ottoneu is vast, this will likely divulge into several posts which I will try to group similarly, but today I wanted to start with what drives Ottoneu, it’s communities of owners. I wanted to know what their opinion was on adjusting to the format. Since the scope of Ottoneu is vast, I have tried to group responses similarly – and thanks to everyone who helped me with this. You’re responses are valuable.

First, a snapshot of the Ottoneu Season (courtesy of ottoneu owner RJ Weise).

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Remember when Maikel Franco led all hitters in home runs during this past spring training? His nine were two more than the next highest total hit by Robinson Cano and J.D. Martinez. Not surprisingly, this resulted in the Franco hype train filling up quickly, and his draft cost surging higher. While I don’t know what his ADP began draft season at or where it ended just before the season started, I do remember he went for an absurd price in my local auction league. Of course, he went to our resident Phillies fan, but his cost was no doubt inflated by his spring performance. Naturally, he disappointed, as he finished just 18th among third basemen in value, earning a mere $6.90.

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This year, Evan Longoria hit more homers than he ever had before and ended up the tenth-best third baseman (seventh among third-base only). At 31, his age provides us some easy context to the likelihood he repeats his power at that level. But there’s a lot more context! Like the rest of the league, which changed along with him. So let’s figure out that context. Because if the league stays the same next year — if the ball stays the same, you could say — then maybe this is Longoria’s new power level. Which is to say, the same power level, but just in a more powerful league.

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