Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Third Base Edition With Matt Carpenter

Stolen Bases from Third Base

Third base is traditionally a position to pick up some of your team’s power and any stolen bases production was an afterthought. With the steady decline of stolen bases over the past decade, a third base position (or even a corner infield spot with first basemen on the decline) can be an opportunity to pick up some steals. The number of stolen bases from third basemen has shown the following trend:

The third base pool has its four big sluggers (Arenado, Bryant, Donaldson, and Machado), but not every team can roster these studs. Some teams will need to move down the food chain and roster the likes of Eduardo Nunez (40 SB), Jose Ramirez (22 SB), or Hernan Perez (34 SB). While some of these stolen base sources have multi-position eligibility, don’t be afraid to roster a speedster at third base or corner if a value presents itself in the middle infield. Using the 2016 15-team mixed LABR league as an example, it takes around 140 SB (11 per player) and 295 HR (23 per player). It doesn’t matter how an owner gets to these totals just as long as they do.

Matt Carpenter: 2017 Projection

The St. Louis Cardinals just stated that Matt Carpenter will be their full-time first baseman for the 2017 season.

The Cardinals let infielder Matt Carpenter know that he will be the team’s first baseman entering 2017, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed Tuesday during the first day of the general manager meetings here in Phoenix. The move was obvious considering the Cardinals’ other comments coming out of the 2016 season and their intended search for an outfielder, but Mozeliak said letting Carpenter know what to expect and where to expect it was important.

Mozeliak said it allowed Carpenter to prepare for the position all winter, and that it allowed the team “to simplify its view of the infield.”
It means less of a jumble than last year.

This bit of news helps to clarify some of the Cardinals playing time issues with Matt Adams jobless. With the offseason just getting underway, playing time issues will still need to be worked out.

As for Carpenter, his 2016 season ended on a disappointing note after starting out at a career-best pace cause by injuries. In our end-0f-season rankings, Carpenter ended up as the 18th first baseman and the 16th overall third baseman. I think he should be able to beat his 2017 production if he can stay injury free. Here is how he performed before and after going on the DL (oblique) on July 7th.

The difference in production is pretty stark. Besides the oblique, he missed a few games with separate back and finger injuries. Even with the horrible second half, his production was similar to his 2015 stats minus the counting stats for the time missed. I think his 2015 season is a good baseline moving forward. I could see his Run and RBI mix change if his batting order position changes and maybe a bit of aging as he enters his age-31 season.

His 2017 owners will be rewarded with a player who has first, second, and third base eligibility. While I don’t put any dollar value on position flexibility, I would take him over other similarly valued players because he does give an owner additional late-draft flexibility to fill a spot with an undervalued player.

For dynasty owners, I could see first base be is permanent home with maybe the chance of moving to second or third because of injuries. But probably not. I think this is the last year for Carpenter’s position flexibility.

In all, I see Carpenter posting: 650 PA, 100 Runs, 85 RBI, 20 HR, 2 SB, .270 AVG, .370 OBP.

Notes

• The home run spike was discussed quite a bit at the Baseball HQ First Pitch conference. I wasn’t sure where I stood on the uptick’s future. Are the home runs going to continue to go up, stay the same, or drop back down?

Yesterday, Eno Sarris wrote about putting Evan Longoria’s power output into context with the increase in power. The key stat I took away was an uptick in fly balls (6-year-high). With batters looking to hit more home runs last year, I think they will again. Even with a possible correction away from a juiced ball, home runs rates could stay up. I am going to bet on a steady home runs rate for 2017 and hope I can get 20 home runs later in the draft. I will concentrate on getting a good base of stolen bases early on.

• It sounds like Joey Gallo will start the 2017 season in the minors trying to make contact with a baseball. Any baseball.

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels on Thursday did not sound optimistic about the possibility of Joey Gallo winning the team’s vacant first base job for 2017.

When asked about first base, where Mitch Moreland is a free agent, Daniels immediately cited the possibility of Jurickson Profar and Ryan Rua.

As for Gallo, Daniels said: “We think Joey is going to be a very good player in this league, but when is still too early to say. Ideally, he’d probably get a little more time, unless there is a big jump like Ryan Rua took last year.”

Gallo lowering his strikeout rate is going to be the key factor in him making the majors. I really think the rate needs to be under 30% in spring training or the minors for him to considered a regular.