It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.

Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.

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Braves sign R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon

Well, the Braves used to be a young, rebuilding team. Now they are a slightly older rebuilding team. Signing the pair helps solidify the Braves rotation and suck up a ton of innings.

As for the changes in fantasy implications, I see none for Bartolo Colon. He is staying in the same division and still on a decent offense to get Wins. As long as he continues to command his 88 mph fastball, he will be playable in deep leagues and as a spot starter. I am pretty sure people know what they are getting from him at this point in his career.

The R.A. Dickey signing is a little more interesting. Dickey has been pretty much irrelevant in the past couple of seasons except for generating a ton of subpar rate stats for the teams brave or desperate enough to roster him.

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11/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day

• Who closes for the Angels? [3:40]

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Braves sign Bartolo Colon (1/$12.5)  [10:00]
• Braves sign R.A. Dickey (1/$8)
• Blue Jays sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (7/$22)  [16:30]

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A couple of weeks ago I made an initial stab at projecting a pitching prospect’s MLB value knowing their prospect grades. I failed miserably, but got some ideas in which to move forward on. Today, I will test some of those theories and see if I can tease out any information.

From the previous study, I found the following on pitcher grades.

1. Pitchers who are a few years from the majors are likely to change quite a bit before for they reach the majors. They could have arm surgery, find command, or add a pitch. Early grades have too much noise to be used for future results.

2. Fastballs are almost exclusively graded only on velocity. For a soft-tossing prospect to get a major call up, their fastball is likely better than just the velocity shows. They likely have plus movement and/or command of the pitch.

3. Almost all pitching prospects will get stuck with a future 50 control grade because getting graded less than 50 is a death sentence for their progress. Not all major league pitchers have average control. Exactly half don’t, so the control grade needs to be adjusted.

4. From some discussions with people in the game, I found that having one or two plus breaking balls can help carry a pitcher with an average fastball.

With these limitations, I decided to relook at pitchers by implementing the following guidelines for this study.

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My first post here at RotoGraphs last year was an introduction to the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator, a tool I created to help ottoneu owners calculate and visualize the best assets in their leagues. If you want to know more about the background of the tool, or more specifics on how to use it, be sure to read that prior article. Today I wanted to announce the release of the early 2017 version of the calculator, using the just released Steamer 2017 projections.

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Eugenio Suarez served as the shortstop for the Reds for 96 games in 2015, but an off-season trade of Todd Frazier resulted in Suarez sliding over to the hot corner this year. He earned an awful defensive grade at shortstop, but he was an asset with his glove at the less demanding defensive position. Moving to a corner put greater pressure on his bat, but he did enough — coupled with his positive defensive contributions — to play in 159 games and serve as an everyday player for the duration of the year. The volume (627 plate appearances) helped push Suarez to a double-double (21 homers and 11 steals) with useful run production contributions (78 runs and 70 RBI). In a little over 250 games played with the Reds, the 25-year-old has been remarkably consistent in many ways. Read the rest of this entry »

Second base was arguably the deepest position in 2016. Typically a source of stolen bases and empty batting average, the keystone turned into a powerhouse for both fantasy and real teams. Here’s the weird part: the players who produced all this unexpected value were veterans.

Jose Altuve turned on the power switch, as did Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, Ian Kinsler, and others. With the exception of Segura and maybe Murphy, these are all players who were already considered the cream of the crop at second base. They exceeded all expectations last season.

The best case scenario for Trea Turner showed up in Washington for half a season. The Rockies finally let DJ LeMahieu bat in a prominent spot. Jason Kipnis had what would have been a top three season in years past. He was 10th best this time. The list goes on.

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Dansby Swanson (SS): OK, so I’m going to cheat a bit. Swanson didn’t technically graduate because he was stopped at 129 at-bats (and the official amount to graduate as a rookie is 130 ABs) but I needed something positive to write about after the Braves’ rookie hurlers struggled mightily. The first overall pick of the 2015 draft didn’t need much minor league seasoning and he blew through A-ball and double-A in 2016 on his way to his big league promotion. Despite the quick ascension, Swanson performed well on both sides of the ball and should be a star in this league (or at least an above-average regular if the pop doesn’t come around).

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There is no denying that this year’s free agent class is weak, especially compared to recent years that all had multiple big-ticket stars. Yoenis Cespedes moves the needle as do Edwin Encarnacion and closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, but that’s about it in the top tier. The weakness of the free agent market offers hope at a robust trade market this winter. The league tilted toward a have/have-nots setup this past year with 11 teams finishing at least 20 games out of first in their division, up from seven each of the last two seasons.

The contenders will be looking to buy from the pretenders while the pretenders will be get a chance to stockpile young talent for their next big run. The turnaround time in baseball has shortened as teams are open trusting young players much more these days. There are many huge names who could feasibly be moved and while most of them won’t be, I think we will see some superstars change teams via trade. I’ve plucked three interesting pitchers and mapped out a trade path for each. I’ll have a trio of hitters soon, too.

Chris Sale

• To StL: Sale

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Chat starts around 3 PM Central today! Let’s talk baseball!!

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