Onward and forward we move with the Steamer and I series recaps, pitting my Pod Projection against Steamer! Today, I’ll review how we forecasted Yoenis Cespedes. Unlike Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig who I previously recapped, I was actually significantly more bullish than Steamer on Cespedes. Let’s find out exactly what each system was projecting versus how Cespedes actually fared.
Mariners trade Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to the Diamondbacks for Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis
Let me start with the two players the Diamondbacks acquired. The move to Arizona is probably a break even move for Walker’s output. Now he is facing the pitcher twice a game instead of the DH, but instead, he has to pitch in his offensive-leaning home park and also travel to Colorado. The bigger question isn’t the small peripheral factors relating to park or league but instead figuring out his true talent level.
Walker is probably considered to be a failed prospect after being in the top-20 of several prospect lists. While he has not lived up the top prospect ranking, he is still a decent fantasy option and could be an even better one if he gets the home runs under control. Just looking at his K%-BB%, he ranks 27th overall the past two seasons (min 300 IP) with the likes of Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, Jose Quintana, and John Lackey.
Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.
The Graduate: Gary Sanchez (C): The 23-year-old Sanchez needed just 53 games to convince the Yankees to go all in and send veteran catcher Brian McCann packing. The ball absolutely screams off the rookie’ bat and he slugged 20 home runs in his debut — en route to a 1.032 OPS. He struck out a lot (25%) and saw his numbers dip noticeably during his second month of his debut leading to some questions: Was the league beginning to adjust to him, or was he just tiring after never playing into September in the past? Still, he projects as an above-average hitter and has improved his defence significantly — making him a must-have in keeper leagues (and all other leagues, for the matter). Sanchez should open 2017 with some pretty hefty expectations and it will be interesting to see if he can live up to them.
The Major League Rule 5 draft will be held on December 8. Teams have already made most of their 40-man roster decisions in preparation for draft day, but there’s still time for a few more cuts or trades to open spots. The owners are also threatening to enforce a lockout beginning on December 1 which would probably push back the Rule 5 draft to an undetermined time.
If you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 draft, it’s an opportunity for teams to steal players from other clubs. Said players must not be on a 40-man roster now and must remain on the active roster of their new club for a full service year. There’s more to it than that, but it’s unimportant to us as fantasy players. All we need to know is that some relatively untouted prospects are going to be jammed onto major league rosters for an entire year.
In 2015, the big names (from a fantasy perspective) were Joey Rickard and Tyler Goeddel. Not a big deal, eh? Rickard was useful very early in the season while Goeddel was a star in May and otherwise awful. The 2014 draft included Odubel Herrera, Delino DeShields, and Mark Canha. They contributed to some fantasy titles.
Let’s continue with the outfielder Steamer and I reviews by checking in on an amusing player — Yasiel Puig. I was significantly more bearish on Puig than Steamer was, and while we know now that Puig has continued his offensive slide, let’s dive into exactly what we expected versus how he actually performed.
It’s too early in the offseason to put together an updated grid as there are too many open spaces due to both Free Agency and unassigned roles. However, we won’t let the Bullpen Report be forgotten this winter and once a week we will check in with updates around the league that will affect your yearly chase for saves and holds.
• With relief aces Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and in some respects, Mark Melancon still on the market, the Cardinals went straight for Brett Cecil locking him up for four years and $30.5M. Dave Cameron listed Cecil has a potential 2017 bargain and Cecil signed a more team-friendly deal than Cameron even projected. Seung Hwan Oh is entrenched in the closer’s chair in St. Louis but with Trevor Rosenthal working to become a starter, Cecil should find his way to some high leverage innings along with fellow lefty Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have a lot of starting pitching depth, so Rosenthal isn’t assured a rotation spot by any means but it does mean his days of pitching high leverage spots in St. Louis might be coming to an end. Relief roles are changing rapidly, especially during the playoffs and while it’s impossible to carry over Andrew Miller’s October usage to April, it is possible that more teams will have relievers for multiple innings and that’s what I would guess the Cardinals are doing here.
When you play Ottoneu, and offseason trading finally begins, it’s easy to feel the rush. While Ottoneu Arbitration provides a brief respite, once the calendar turns to November 15, the gloves are off. 
Trades happen like wildfire and debates about player values appear to be never ending. The surplus calculator is updated and those new to Ottoneu are left pondering their roster. Point being, hold on to your hat. The offseason moves quick. However, in an effort to gain perspective, I would like to throw up a caution sign and encourage patience among my fellow “Ottoneurs” (Some day I’ll finally find a way to refer to y’all).
“Patience!?” you say. “I want to trade!” you plead… But yes, patience is what is needed. The last thing you want to do is make a terrible trade because you were in a rush to make any trade. Today, I want to look into several ways patience can benefit your Ottoneu Team. Read the rest of this entry »
About a week ago, I went over the stats I use when examining hitters during the offseason. Today pitchers take center stage. With Pitchf/x and now Trackman publicly available, I find it quite a bit easier to evaluate pitchers and the changes they make. For pitchers, I have one sparkling new main source and one old standby.
Pitchers are so much easier to evaluate compared to hitters. If a pitcher gains a couple ticks on his fastball, we know right away within a couple of pitches. If a hitter can no longer catch up with a 96 mph fastball, it may take a few months to know for sure and even then, we may not be sure why. Here are the tools I use to help find pitchers who have changed for the good or the bad.
Pitch Type Metrics
Ever since helping Eno dive into pitch-type metrics, I’ve determined that I will evaluate pitchers using this type of data. Even though it took a while to hammer everything out, the final results have been extremely promising. We can now determine what each small pitch change will mean for each pitcher and how pitchers can improve their results. The complete write up of the process is available, but here is a quick summary.
Absent all other information, we should always expect a player to be worse than the previous year. A.J. Pollock won’t be worse in 2017 by virtue of missing nearly all of 2016. That’s practically a guarantee. But what should we actually expect of him?
Today, I start my reviews of my Steamer and I series that happened to cover mainly outfielders (not by design). The series compared my Pod Projection to the Steamer projection, as I discussed the players I was either significantly more bullish or bearish on compared to the system. We start with Mike Trout, who I was far more bearish on than Steamer. It was an interesting exercise for me since I had no idea I was in that position to begin with. Diving it to determine why was an enlightening activity.