Ottoneu 101: Patience is a Virtue

When you play Ottoneu, and offseason trading finally begins, it’s easy to feel the rush. While Ottoneu Arbitration provides a brief respite, once the calendar turns to November 15, the gloves are off. Trades happen like wildfire and debates about player values appear to be never ending. The surplus calculator is updated and those new to Ottoneu are left pondering their roster. Point being, hold on to your hat. The offseason moves quick. However, in an effort to gain perspective, I would like to throw up a caution sign and encourage patience among my fellow “Ottoneurs” (Some day I’ll finally find a way to refer to y’all).

“Patience!?” you say. “I want to trade!” you plead… But yes, patience is what is needed. The last thing you want to do is make a terrible trade because you were in a rush to make any trade. Today, I want to look into several ways patience can benefit your Ottoneu Team.

Don’t Cut Players

Every year, teams cut players early in the offseason. While I see this as a mistake, you may run your team however you like. However, in the midst of these cuts I often see several players I would have traded for. The easiest way to look at it is to admit that I have no idea how any other team values any player. For example – an $18 Gregory Polanco and $12 James Paxton were cut in the past month in a league. Yes, you can cut either of them at any point, but it would have helped your team to wait as many owners would have gladly given up an asset they viewed as a keeper in return for either one. If patience had been exercised, Polanco and Paxton could have been left on the roster until January (they weren’t taking a roster spot from anyone). Then removed if no one expressed interest. By then they likely would have been traded to another team for something their previous owners desired. While there are certainly less egregious cuts, I’m sure many leagues have examples of situations like this.

The second reason not to cut is that free-agent signings and MLB trades will drastically impact player values. If Ivan Nova signs in San Francisco would you keep him at $3? What if Yasiel Puig gets traded to Milwaukee? Does he look more attractive at $18? Do you take a chance on him in a better park? Certainly either of these players may look like probable cuts right now, but there are so many hypothetical scenarios that could impact borderline keepers. While a therapeutic cut is acceptable, I would caution against clearing the decks on anyone you do not plan to keep – at least for now.

Dollar values are far from complete, and even further from perfect

While having dollar values is great, and almost necessary in Ottoneu, it is important to be patient and realize that they are far from complete. Right now, the publicly available dollar values are only based off Steamer. With the first Zips projection being released yesterday, we are a long way off form having values based off both systems. That being said, they are still useful. For example, I want to know that Steamer is high on Lance McCullers, Robbie Ray and James Paxton. Does that mean I think Robbie Ray is worth $20+ dollars? No. All this goes to say that while you should use the dollar values available as a baseline, you should expect some changes to the totals as final projections come in. Also, you should take league context into account.

If you treat the dollar values released as gospel, you will probably make some errors in your valuations. Use the values generally. The $20 surplus assets in your league are still likely to be the best assets, but there could be some select cases where you may want to bet against Steamer. Have patience with your values. Recognize that they will adjust. While it can be fun to pull a trade early, you want to make sure the trade you pull actually benefits your team in the long run.

I have added an excerpt of the Surplus Calculator with the 2017 Early Steamer Values below for completeness.