There’s no real football today, so watch some baseball instead.

On the agenda:
1. Various News and Notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options

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It’s been a while since you’ve heard from us and we apologize for that. For tonight, I’m going to first update you on changes in the grid since the last time we put something out. Then I will close out with an update on tonight’s slate.

Bruce Bochy announced he will remove Santiago Casilla as closer and go with a committee. He then used him with a one-run lead tonight in extra innings and he gave up a game-tying home-run to Jake Lamb. This makes the Giants closer job very volatile and although Will Smith is at the top of the grid, this does not mean he will get first shot at save opportunities. If you’re in a Holds/Save league, go for one of the three Giants on the grid. If it’s just Saves, be cautious when picking up these relievers who have no hold on the job just yet.
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We are nearing the homestretch in the baseball and ottoneu season, and this will be the last in-season power rankings. The next time power rankings are released, they will be final 2016 results, and I plan on releasing the full team/league standings files for each format at that time as well.

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There are only so many stones to overturn with waiver wire suggestions for the stretch run and only so many strategical quirks to point out, too. With that in mind, I’m going to turn my attention to 2017 — sort of. As Jeff Zimmerman recently pointed out, Kevin Gausman is shoving in the second half. Jeff noted the biggest change between halves is an improved LOB% and a drop in HR/9. Combing over his PITCHf/x data, there’s something I’ll be keeping tabs as the season winds down. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 235 – Live With The Return Of Yancy Eaton

In this live broadcast, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson are joined by Yancy Eaton in a live recording to discuss the weirdness that is DFS in September, not worrying too hard about splits for right-handed batters, Trea Turner’s excellence, Starlin Castro’s strong home/road splits, not knowing how to pronounce Robert Gsellman’s name, Seth Lugo as a Statcast darling, the innings ceilings on picking Clayton Kershaw or Jose Fernandez, Yancy getting interested in football season, hinting at Brad’s upcoming fiction project, and The Daily Grind Invitational.

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Agenda

1. An Issue of Incentives
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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Welcome to the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as a early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Derek Law (RHP): Law, 25, should have been in the Majors in 2014 or ’15 but Tommy John surgery threw a wrench into those plans. Healthy in 2016, the Giants eagerly threw him into a very uncertain bullpen scenario and he thrived. No pitcher on the club (minimum 30 innings) has walked fewer batters per nine innings (1.59 BB/9) and he’s fourth on the team in strikeouts per nine (8.29 K/9). Toss in the third best ground-ball rate (50%) and the best homer per fly ball (5.3%) and you have yourself a potential high-leverage reliever for 2017 and quite possibly Santiago Casilla’s eventually replacement in the ninth inning thanks to his nifty fastball/slider combination.

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I’ve had the pleasure of spending some time with Eno Sarris here in Toronto the last two days. Last night, he was part of a Pitch Talks with Jeff Passan and a bunch of terrific local beat guys, and the night prior he rolled through after I did a Hoop Talks event. It’s been great – Eno’s helped me a ton from a professional standpoint, and few writers can blend humor, storytelling ability, and just ridiculously sharp analysis the way he does. So, shout out to Eno. And if you’re in Toronto, BarHop at 5pm before the Jays game tonight.

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I honestly can’t believe the season is almost over. I’m already sad about it, but instead of moping I want to enjoy these final few weeks of the regular season before what should be a great playoff and World Series. The day-to-day volatility of baseball can make it tough to find key waiver pickups with less than a month to go. Usually we need a couple of weeks to truly see if a guy can deliver for you, but we simply don’t have that kind of time so our gambles need to be even more calculated than in May or June when we still have more season in front of us than behind. I’ve been meticulously combing the waiver wires looking for every little edge and I think I’ve found some arms for those of you in need of strikeouts.

THE REDS

Brandon Finnegan: The Reds schedule shapes up to leverage multiple starters for some strikeouts starting with Finnegan this weekend. His next three starts are at Pittsburgh, home against Pittsburgh, and then at Milwaukee. Those two teams are both top-5 in strikeout rate against lefties – top-5 being bad in this case.

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Alright we’re back for another week of #2xSP, and the harsh (?) reality is there aren’t too many of these left. We’re starting to come down the stretch run, and if you’re like me that also means playoff time in head-to-head leagues.

We’ve had a pretty good run of success here of late, as the worst week-by-week ERA I’ve had in the last five weeks is 4.18. I mean, they haven’t all been good, but for the season I’m pretty proud of the numbers put forth.

Speaking of, here are the season numbers:

42-41
3.87 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.32 WHIP
61 quality starts

And now, onto this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Ervin Santana – 44.2% ESPN – @DET (103), @NYM (96)

Big Erv has been a bit more embattled in recent starts, but overall he’s been pretty great in the second half: 2.89 ERA, .644 OPS against and 57-18 K/BB ratio in 65.1 innings/10 starts. He’s not flashy, but just gets the job done. For the Twins, that makes him their de facto as, as they’ve got the worst rotation in baseball by not a small margin. He’s only faced Detroit once this year, but held them to just one earned run in seven innings back on July 20 in his second start after the break. The Mets should be an interesting matchup, though not a particularly worrisome one. Read the rest of this entry »