The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 9

Agenda

1. An Issue of Incentives
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. An Issue of Incentives

Yesterday, Dave Cameron wrote about the roster expansion problem wherein teams ruin September games by using 17 pitchers. The thing is, this isn’t only a September problem – it’s just particularly egregious now. What we’re really talking about is reliever specialization.

Let’s think about this another way. We as fans want fewer pitching changes because they make games interminable. Which is bad for baseball’s brand. It shouldn’t be a chore to watch a game. Relatedly, when a pitcher pulls a Bumgarner and carries his team for an entire month, it makes for extremely compelling baseball. Nobody goes wild when Randy Choate is called in to pitch one out because you don’t want a Severino Gonzalez-type to face a lefty.

If this were the only issue, the market should partially self-correct, subject to supply. Teams with sufficient funds to would hire and develop more Bumgarners. And to a certain extent, we see this happen. Ideally every team would have a couple Bumgarners and an Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances.

The problem is that specialization produces better baseball results from cheaper and more common components. And teams believe that reduced workloads for young pitchers also produces better baseball and health results. So teams are left with two similar but competing goals – should they make the product more compelling or more likely to win?

Right now, everybody seems to be maximizing for wins. Which has a certain rational to it. A playoff berth makes it easy for fans to forget a few fugly September reliever-fests. It’s only a serious marketing problem if you don’t compete through the final week of the season. If we want to change this issue of too many relievers, we ought to change the incentives for how a team is composed and operated. Simply pasting in a new arbitrary rule with its slew of unintended consequences is not the answer.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

We’re on DraftKings today. I’ll see ya there.

A programming note: I have my final baseball game of the season tomorrow – a morning playoff game. It should be my final conflict for the 2016 season. I’ll be back on Monday.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s a full 15 game day festooned with aces. Clayton Kershaw returns with an unknown innings/pitch limit. I’m guessing they’ll be aiming at six innings or 75 pitches. Jose Fernandez remains innings constrained too. There’s talk of shutting him down soon.

Madison Bumgarner is every bit as acey as Fernandez, but he has the potential to fire off a complete game for substantially less. He costs $1,500 less than JoFery and $2,200 less than Kershaw on DraftKings. MadBum is opposed by the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. It’s a tough matchup for any lefty.

Carlos Martinez has the honeypot Brewers matchup again. When he faced the Brew Crew on August 29, he tossed six innings with 13 strikeouts. For those who don’t like counting, that means all but five outs came via strikeout. This time, the game is at pitcher friendly Busch Stadium. And CMart costs $900 less than Bumgarner. I’m very tempted to name him the top ace of the day.

Yu Darvish is the latest pitcher to draw the Los Angeles Trouts. The eponymous player is on fire, but the rest of the lineup is rather blah. Darvish appears to be unconstrained by pitch counts – he’s tossed 99 or more in four of his last five starts. Efficiency is another matter.

Tanner Roark doesn’t come with the same ceiling as the aces, but he’s a solid high floor pick versus the Phillies. Roark should cruise to an easy win opposite Jake Thompson. Expect about seven innings and five strikeouts – incidentally, that’s exactly what he did against the Phillies on August 29.

Danny Salazar has a volatile matchup opposite the Twins. He’s recently removed from elbow discomfort and a series of bad outings, both of which contribute to the aforementioned volatility. The Twins lineup is also known to supply big strikeout totals on occasion.

Yordano Ventura versus Carlos Rodon is an interesting battle of the second half breakouts. Both pitchers are on top of their game right now. If there’s a drawback, it’s that they could cancel each other out. Oh, and do watch out for storms.

It’s a deep day for pitching. Other guys to consider include Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, Kevin Gausman, Michael Fulmer, Michael Pineda, Blake Snell, Marco Estrada, and Hisashi Iwakuma.

Stack Targets: Steven Brault, Jake Thompson, Tyler Duffey, Jimmy Nelson, Robert Gsellman, Tim Adleman, Luis Perdomo, Daniel Mengden, Joe Musgrove, Rubby de la Rosa, Tyler Skaggs

4. SaberSim Observations

Kershaw, Fernandez, Darvish, CMart, and Pineda top the charts today. The simulator doesn’t know Kershaw will be constrained in some kind of way. And before anyone says we don’t “know” Kershaw will be on a pitch count, think about the amount of time he missed. A couple simulated games and a single rehab start are not enough to get back to 100 pitches. It wouldn’t shock me if his limit is actually 60 pitches.

Stacks include the Nationals, Red Sox, Braves, Diamondbacks (really?), Cubs, Astros, Giants, and Blue Jays.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: If you’re in desperation mode, try either side of Robert Stephenson at Drew Hutchison. Stephenson is coming off a promising outing in which he actually induced whiffs en route to nine strikeouts. Unfortunately, he did allow a couple solo yakkers. Hutchison has been rather mediocre since joining the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate, but perhaps he can get Searaged.

Also consider: Kendall Graveman, Seth Lugo, Rich Hill, Jon Gray

Pitchers to Exploit: I still have positive feelings about Mike Clevinger’s future, but first he has to adjust to the majors. Even if he pitches well, I’d still expect fewer than five innings.

Also consider: Collin McHugh, Edinson Volquez, James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jordan Zimmermann, Hector Santiago, Chase Anderson, Archie Bradley, Christian Friedrich, Daniel Wright

Hitters (power): Brandon Guyer is an elite lefty slayer. Santiago is left-handed. Need I say more?

Also consider: Stephen Cardullo, Xavier Scruggs, Chase Utley, Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Pedro Alvarez, Hyun-soo Kim, Adam Lind, Seth Smith

Hitters (speed): While Delino DeShields isn’t really running or hitting, he still bats leadoff for a good Rangers lineup. They’re opposed by a minor league quality pitcher, giving DeShields a good chance to reach base and scamper.

Also consider: Delino DeShields, Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Orlando Arcia, Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte, Rajai Davis, Jorge Polanco, Cameron Maybin, Jarrod Dyson, Terrance Gore (PR-only), Tim Anderson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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