Here we are, for the penultimate edition of #2xSP this year. We’ve had a markedly better year than last, and the goal is to keep the ERA under 4.00 — after last week, woof — with a continued push for maybe 8.5 K/9 (high goal, but why not reach for the stars?) and hopefully lowering that WHIP under 1.30.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

43-43 record
3.94 ERA
8.2 K/9
2.8 K/BB
1.33 WHIP
61 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP A.J. Cole – 13.3% ESPN – @MIA (93), @PIT (98)

It’s hard to really know what matters in samples as small as what Cole has put forth. What we do know for sure if this is a couple of pretty solid matchups, though going on the road can be a daunting task for any young pitcher. His first two starts on the road this year were solid — @BAL, @NYM — where he’s combined for a 3.46 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and an OPS against of just .640. Again, that’s just two starts, but those are solid numbers. Also solid is that Cole has induced double-digit swinging strike numbers in four of five starts, with the lone time he didn’t being eight in a season-low 78 pitches against the Phillies in his second-to-last start. That seems to back up the fact that he’s fanned more than a batter per inning — 31 in 28.2 innings — which should help us in the K/9 department. Now, let’s just hope for a couple quality starts.

UPDATE: We’re going with Clayton Richard instead of Cole, who will likely be bumped by the return of Joe Ross. The Padres face the Diamondbacks (95) and Giants (98) this week. Richard has a 1.70  ERA in eight appearances (six starts) with the Padres, with a 7.3 K/9 mark and a couple decent matchups at home this week.

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Chat starts around 2:15 PM Central!

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9/14/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

I think I’m a little echo-y throughout, but we know exactly why and it won’t happen next time. With our new setup, Eno has to use his earbuds to prevent that feedback and we forgot this time. 

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Aaron Judge done for the year (6:00)

Let’s talk 2H rookie hitters:

• Gary Sanchez (10:20)
• Alex Bregman (18:55)
• Trea Turner (26:30)
• Ryan Schimpf (36:17)
• David Dahl (49:30)
• Ryon Healy (43:26)

Strategy Section: Uncertain Bullpens Down the Stretch

• Colorado (52:50)
• SF (55:40)
• Cleveland (57:26)
• Arizona (59:15)
• Angels (1:02:40)

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This is the first year we’ve had access to the new ‘Release Spin Rate’ stat, which can be found hiding in a little nook of Baseball Savant. This spin rate, as I understand it, is measured using Doppler Radar at the moment the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand. I’m not exactly sure how the system defines this release point, perhaps when the ball begins to slow down. No matter the case, this new ‘Release Spin Rate’ stat appears to have some potential as a new way of evaluating pitcher performance, since we all assume there must be some correlation between spin rate and success rate as a pitcher.

Lets get some Physics out of the way.

I want to preface this by saying this isn’t meant to be a physics lesson, I’m intentionally oversimplifying everything. I just need to cover some basics before I can move on. I’ll post some links at the bottom if you’re interested in more information.

When a ball is spinning, half of the ball is moving in one direction, and the other is moving in the opposite direction. For example, as the earth rotates, half of it goes into sunlight and the other half goes into darkness. If you move this spinning ball, one part of the ball will be both rotating and moving in the same direction, while the other side of the ball is rotating opposite to the direction of movement. The part of the ball that rotates towards the direction of its movement fights against the air that is trying to brush past it, and it builds a little high pressure region in the air as it moves. You can think of it as the ball pushing against the air, and as you know from the third law of motion, every force has an equal and opposite force. When the ball pushes against the air, the air pushes against the ball. It pushes from this high pressure region, pushing the ball away from the high pressure. This force is called the Magnus Force. Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. An Early Mock
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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Episode 239 – Anything Goes At Shortstop

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss streaming against teams on hangover days, Matt going to Washington to get a Ben Revere garden gnome, Dylan’s failed #evenyeartragic joke, Billy Butler signing with the Yankees, Chad Kuhl being lukewarm, how to pronounce Ryon Healy’s name, Roman Quinn’s evil villain name, Billy Burns being on the Royals, and Matt attempting a Montgomery Burns joke.

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Last Friday, September 9, baseball saw its 4,910th home run of the season hit, passing the total number hit in all of 2015. If you’re reading this, then you’ve probably known about the spike in home run rates since mid-2015 for a while now. I started to pay close attention to the trend when I read the first of Rob Arthur’s and Ben Lindbergh’s articles on FiveThirtyEight (one, two, and three) that posited that a juiced baseball could be responsible for the change. That was more than five months ago, and the trend has not slowed down since then.

In fantasy, the increase in power is particularly important because it undermines the value of hitters whose elite home run totals no longer stand out to the same extent. With still almost three weeks left in the season, 91 hitters have already reached 20 or more home runs. That’s the most players at that benchmark in a season since 2008. If this power surge continues, then the Khris Davises and Chris Carters of the world will lose a lot of value. Why reach for them when Brad Miller has 28 home runs and Marcus Semien has 24 home runs? Suddenly, speed is the scarce resource.

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Let’s throw another name into the mess known as the Giant’s bullpen. Derek Law was activated and pitched for the Giants for the first time since August 27th. He struck out the only batter he faced down 3-1 in the 9th, as Bochy said he will not use him high leverage situations just yet. Law has had a very strong year with a 1.93 ERA (2.30 WHIP), and could see some 9th inning chances as the season winds down and the Giants bullpen continues to struggle. For now, he is off the grid.

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Shout out to my pal Christian Stoinev for throwing out the first pitch at the Diamondbacks game in fashion. I’m starting a petition to have dogs on the mound for all pitchers starting in 2017.

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We haven’t even closed the book on 2016, but I’m already in a mock draft for 2017. What do you mean I have a problem? I don’t have a problem, you have a problem! I would normally say something trite like “it’s never too early to start studying for 2017”, but of course it can be too early. If I had done something in mid-May about the 2017 season, that definitely would’ve been too early. And let’s be honest, this current mock draft with the InThisLeague guys & company might also be too early for any sane person, but I take these bullets for y’all.

You’re welcome.

We’re just wrapping up the third round as it’s a slow mock so we’re going to focus on the first round of this 12-team standard 5×5 draft. Before we do that, let’s look at the ESPN Player Rater for the year so far. I obviously don’t think the top 12 from this year should comprise the first round, but I am interested to see how many of them go in the first round.

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