The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 15

Agenda

1. An Early Mock
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. An Early Mock

For those of you who can’t wait to get the 2017 season under way, Paul Sporer has provided the first-round results from an early industry mock. Sporer snagged Bryce Harper with the ninth pick. While I consider it to be a fine selection, Harper probably isn’t in my top 12. Who is, you ask? How about:

Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, and Miguel Cabrera

My super-early list includes two different names – Blackmon and Cabrera. Harper and Carlos Correa didn’t make the cut from Paul’s draft. I have Corey Seager ahead of Correa. Seager would be my 13th pick with Harper, Correa, and Max Scherzer in the mix for number 14. Francisco Lindor remains high on my target list and Jonathan Villar is also an option for top of the second round consideration.

Many of you are probably squinting sideways at my inclusion of Blackmon. Get over it. He’s arguably the best hitter in what I expect to be the most productive lineup in 2017. Blackmon has made positive adjustments every season of career. He’s a legitimate 30-30 threat with a high average/OBP and massive runs scored potential. He might let you down with mediocre RBI or an injury, but that’s the extent of the downside.

Donaldson is the guy I might be tweaking down the list. Although he is a fantastic hitter, much of his value is tied to the presence of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. We’ll see how the Blue Jays offseason turns out. Donaldson could fall as far as the Seager-Harper-Correa-Scherzer bundle.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

BigGame11 makes his debut on the leaderboard with a big night from Jean Segura. Overall, it was an incredibly low scoring night in the cost despite some high scoring offenses. All you needed at 110.2 points to win.

We’re continuing the DraftKings patronage for the remainder of the season. See you there.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: We have a two game mini slate this afternoon. The pitching is, shall we say, sublime. In one corner, we have Hector Santiago versus Mike Pelfrey. In the other corner, Mike Clevinger against James Shields. I’d bet on them in the following order: Pelfrey>Santiago>Clevinger>Shields. This list would look so wrong only a year or two ago…

Stack Targets: Pelfrey, Santiago, Clevinger, and Shields

Late: Rich Hill has allowed one hit in 13 innings since his most recent return to the rotation. He has a tough matchup against the lefty mashing Diamondbacks at Chase Field. I’m probably not rostering Hill tonight, but it has more to do with the minor flare up of his “blister” (I promise you, it’s a palmer wart). Hill may be functioning with a fuzzy pitch count as a result.

Big John Cueto is hosting Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. Cueto is generally a reliable core performer with occasional flashes of brilliance and disappointment. The Cardinals are always a tough matchup, but I’m comfortable using Cueto tonight.

J.A. Happ was on top of the world from late-July through mid-August. His most recent four starts have left something to be desired. The good news is that his price has returned to a reasonable level. He’s now a viable pick versus the L.A. Trout.

Homer prone lefty Blake Snell has the ultimate high risk, high reward matchup tonight opposite the Orioles. Snell could produce anything from a six inning, 10 strikeout masterpiece to an utter disaster. He’s unlikely to reach the seven inning plateau which seriously limits his ceiling.

As you know, I like to pick upon the Brewers. Mike Montgomery posted a solid start last week in Milwaukee – five innings, one run, six strikeouts. I see no reason why he can’t repeat the feat. It’s the time of year when Wrigley Field (usually) transforms back into a pitcher’s park.

Stack Targets: Daniel Wright, Edinson Volquez, Jimmy Nelson, Yovani Gallardo, Daniel Mengden, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chad Kuhl, Archie Bradley, Jerad Eickhoff

4. SaberSim Observations

Hill, Cueto, Monty, Snell, and Eickhoff top the charts today. I left Eickhoff off my personal list because he’s consistently mediocre. I consider him a good second pitcher for cash games, but I like a shot for the top point total when play GPPs.

Stacks include Tigers, Trout, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rays.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: It’s a good day for streaming pitchers if all you need is volume with a chance for a quality start. If you need above average production, Luke Weaver is probably your best bet. The Giants offense doesn’t strikeout often, but Weaver has enough stuff to tally five punch outs in six innings. Aside from avoiding free outs, San Fran is scuffling mighty heavily. Weaver should also enjoy AT&T Park.

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Tom Koehler, Clay Buchholz, Bartolo Colon, Kendall Graveman, Matt Moore

Pitchers to Exploit: Luis Cessa is moderately interesting, if only because he throws 95 mph. The strikeouts are absent, and he’s getting hammered for homers (2.45 HR/9). The Red Sox will feast.

Also consider: Chase Anderson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Luis Cessa, Ryan Vogelsong, Robert Stephenson, John Gant, Jose Berrios, Christian Friedrich, Tyler Chatwood, R.A. Dickey, Jered Weaver, Collin McHugh

Hitters (power): Jumbo Schimpf (aka Ryan Schimpf) is visiting Coors Field. His matchup against ground ball pitcher Tyler Chatwood couldn’t possibly be better. If you’re playing MLB’s home run streak game, Schimpf would be my first pick.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Dan Vogelbach, Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar, Stephen Cardullo, Alex Dickerson, Yangervis Solarte, Max Kepler, Josh Bell, Andrew Benintendi, Xavier Scruggs, Martin Prado, Freddy Galvis, Corey Dickerson

Hitters (speed): I assumed Jose Peraza was 80 percent owned, but I decided to check for the purposes of this column. Lo! I had it backwards. Peraza is 19 percent owned. He’s a must play for anybody chasing a few points in steals.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Denard Span, Travis Jankowski, Tim Anderson, Ben Revere, Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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