Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – September 15th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! We will get started in juuussstt a minute!

Jeet: Would you extend a contract for 1-4 years (you can pick) for any of these pitchers: Sale $43, Syndegaard $38, Jon Gray $15 and Aaron Sanchez $19. Also how many years

Paul Sporer: I don’t extend pitchers personally and I don’t think any of those are at such great prices to make an exception.

Billy Butler Did It: I see Khris Davis as one of the AL’s most elite sources of power in 2017. Agree or disagree?

Paul Sporer: Agree… since he already is!

Justin Verlander: What am I next season? Adam Wainwright?

Paul Sporer: Why would he fall to that level? JV’s velo is up and he’s having a fantastic season, I just don’t see why he’d completely fall off

Max Kepler: Odds for next season’s breakout candidate?

Paul Sporer: 22%

George is Curious: Top 5 American League SP in 2017 as of right now?

Paul Sporer: These are really tough for me on the fly, but I’ll throw some names….

Paul Sporer: Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Chris Archer, Masahiro Tanaka

Paul Sporer: Guys on the rise: Lance McCullers, Aaron Sanchez, Kevin Gausman

Baby Bombers: Gary Sanchez or Wilson Ramos for the next 3 season in a dynasty

Paul Sporer: Sanchez

Dynosaurus Rex: Glasnow a hold in dynasty or flippable for a great young bat

Paul Sporer: Very flippable. I wasn’t super-geeked on him this year and the season didn’t really make me feel any better

Bumblebee: If the $10 Dahl owner in my dynasty is asking for CONSIDERABLY less than the $3 Bregman owner, should I just try and get Dahl? What really is the dropoff?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d definitely pay the extra $7 for a much lower trade cost

Taijuan On: Every time I’m just about to give up on Taijuan Walker, he does something to remind me why I find him so hard to resist!

Paul Sporer: You and me both. I can’t quit that sumbish.

Matt : Drop Pollock? Redraft and finals are next week

Paul Sporer: Ya, you need every game

Michael: need a streamer this week in my 12 team head to head league. looking to drop pineda for one of: hellickson, erod, ubaldo, or montgomery. thoughts?

Paul Sporer: :motions toward the bouncer: Yeah, get him out of here. He suggested picking up Ubaldo Jimenez.

Paul Sporer: I know Ubaldo has been solid over his last 4, but I just can’t do it. I’d go E-Rod

FGM: Have the A’s found another Donaldson in Healy? Minor league numbers were pretty similar.

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure we can jump to that just yet, but I can tell you that Eno *loves* him!

Choo Choo: Haven’t listened to the podcast yet, but who closes in SF next year? Strickland, Law or other?

Paul Sporer: Strick holds it per our discussion

ChicagoCardinal: Paul, can you put a $$ value on the difference between Starling Marte and your doppleganger (Yelich) in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Like $8? Those Marte SBs will create a big $ gap, probably bigger than the difference between their skill sets

Phantom of the Chakras: You mentioned Buxton on a recent pod. Looked flashy coming back up but cooler this last week or so. Think he’s worth a spot ROS? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league size

Phantom of the Chakras: Love the Joey B. Nothing beats World Domination.

Paul Sporer: I got you

Jose Abreu : Just hit another dinger vs the Indians, you’re welcome! How much of this am I carrying into next year?

Paul Sporer: Isn’t this strong finish just getting him back to where we expected him to be all year? I think he’s a solid .300-30-100 type of guy, give or take a little

Minty: 10 team OBP dynasty where I have Bryant/Arenado/Correa. Do I wait and see if Correa ever moves to 3B and risk losing leverage, or deal him now?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really see them moving him, I’d hold

Jacks: Which two bats would you gamble on for the final two weeks? HR, RBI and BA only … Kiermaier, Domingo S, Gurriel, Vmart, Drury, Lamb

Paul Sporer: Lamb and Gurriel

Dumpster Fiers: Fulmer being limited going to cost your Tigers the WS spot?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, it’s suspect to say that’s the only thing.

Paul Sporer: That BAL, TOR, DET, SEA, NYY, HOU group is just very similar so it’ll be shuffling over the last 2 weeks. This is exactly the kind of season I expected from Detroit – a solid team that will have to claw for a spot

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Paul. VMart’s cooled off since the ASB. I love the guy, but is there a viable 2017 ahead for him? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: He’ll be 38 so it’s really hard to place too many expectations on him at that age and I think the market will account for that in his price. So you invest hoping for 120 solid games

Paul Sporer: Coloring Book is still straight fire

JT: Given Odor’s lack of plate discipline, which have pitchers given him enough pitches to hit that he has 30 doubles and 30 HR?

Paul Sporer: Because commanding the ball is REALLY difficult. There are 10s of mistake pitches every single game.

Kvn: What do you do with guys like Berrios and AJ Reed who were highly touted and still hold a lot of promise, but have not really done much this season to justify a keeper spot/$ next year?

Paul Sporer: Keeper spot really depends on setup and everything, but as far as reinvesting next year, you should definitely do it if you still believe because they’ll be even cheaper. I love post-hype guys, tbh.

Nick: Pence Cruz Choo Cargo Cain Desmond McCutchen Brantley in a dynasty. Should only keep 3, sell the rest. Who are the keepers?

Paul Sporer: Gotta see if Cargo stays, but otherwise he’s in w/Desmond & I think McCutchen. Love how great Cruz has been, but we’re in that danger area of age where he can cliffdive without warning

Ben: Does McCutchen bounce back next year? Maybe not to elite levels but not .740 OPS?

Paul Sporer: My guess is multiple nagging injuries this year impacted him. They aren’t guaranteed to get better next year, but I’m willing to bet on him. He’s not done at 30, IMO. I’d say .820ish OPS

Tomas: Is Nick Franklin intriguing for next year?

Paul Sporer: He’s like post-post-post-post-post-hype

Paul Sporer: And yet, still only 26 years old. I think there is some intrigue for Franklin. I really liked him coming up so I’ll prob take a shot in some AL onlys or something like a Draft Champions league at NFBC (50-round draft and hold)

Minty: Based on the love of Trea Turner for you and Collette, how high would you pay for him in an OBP dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Like a new dynasty draft or via trade? Mid-teens dollar value?

Robbie: I picked up Ubaldo, need a QS. Pray for me

Paul Sporer: :looks toward bouncer… bouncer was already escorting Robbie out:

Dynosaurus Prime: Why don’t you extend pitchers even for a season or so?

Paul Sporer: Just too damn risky. I can’t say I NEVER have bc sometimes you’ve got a hot ticket on that $5 rookie contract so bumping him to $10 is fine, but I’ll never do multiple years and the prices from that question were all already too high for me

Bully Ray Beane: As rotation sneaky good next season? Alcantara and Cotton could be very very fantasy friendly right?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think the A’s often have intriguing starters and not just because of the park. They regularly find talented arms. Cotton interests me more of the two

Mike: 12 team H2H keeper league with keepers @ draft round + inflation. Great keepers in Harper (1), JD Martinez (4), Trout (6), Machado (9, SS elig), Betts (15), Sano (18).

Trying to decide between Cano and Sale in the first – can only keep two first rounders. For last keeper, have Rodon (14), Stroman (16), Lucroy (3), Fulmer (21), Taillon (21), Duffy (21), Jon Gray (21) Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Are Cano or Sale really 1st rounders, though? Lots of good options on that last keeper, but I’ll take a shot on Duffy at that killer cost

Paul Sporer: If I have to pick between Cano & Sale, it’s Cano for me

Paul Sporer:

Vic Romano: How much do you micro-manage your studs? For example, Betts has been sucking lemons the past couple weeks. Do you just leave him in your active lineup because you don’t want to risk missing the big day he’s always capable of putting up, or do you put him on your bench in favor of a flavor-of-the-week type of guy off the WW?

Paul Sporer: I *never* do that

Paul Sporer: I think it’s super-dangerous and begging to get burned

Paul Sporer: I won’t even sit my studs in fantasy football even if it’s an RB facing a top rush D or something. I think it’s more justified in football and I still won’t do it, so I don’t even consider it in baseball

Sonny: Archer or Darvish for final keeper spot?

Paul Sporer: Ooooh that’s close. Gimme Darvish

FGM: I have 2 1/2 hours of work left. Can you stay with me the whole time?

Paul Sporer: That’ll be tough, but we’ll eclipse an hour this week

JD15: Is everyone souring on Moncada since he came up the same situation as Bregman (young hitters take time to adapt) or is he somehow different?

Paul Sporer: Knowing the fickle (read: impatient and kinda dumb at times) market, there’s no doubt SOME souring, but it’s completely unjustified on just 20 PA

Harrison: Hernan Perez top 100 draft pick next year?

Paul Sporer: The bouncer is busy today

Nick: Is Kinsler a sell this offseason or can he come close to this kind of production again at his age 34 or 35 season?

Paul Sporer: If you can sell him based on the ’16 production, I’m for it

JD15: I’m streaming Kuhl tonight vs the Phils. Will I regret it?

Paul Sporer: I mean you could, but the process is fine so you can’t really get too hung up on the results

Harrison: Better add with an eye on 2017 – Dan Norris or Nova?

Paul Sporer: Norris. We aren’t sure Nova stays in Pittsburgh

Max: Favorite hitter to use in Diamond Dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Prime Jimmy Rollins. He’s on my secondary team (known as the Stream Team) and he’s awesome

Dumpster Fiers: Assuming the treatment works and he enters the spring ready to go, where would you rank Garrett Richards next year?

Paul Sporer: Top 35ish

Choo Choo: Wei Yin Chen or Matt Boyd in 2017?

Paul Sporer: Think I’ll go healthy Chen

Vic Romano: Bregman only needs 1 more start at SS to carry that eligibility into next year in my keeper league, which would obviously be nice. Where would you place his odds on getting there?

Paul Sporer: 27%

CT: 12 team 6×6 with HRA as a pitching category-keep 5; only looking to keep one SP next year. Darvish or Arrieta?

Paul Sporer: I’m feeling the Darvish love today on these questions!

BMore: peraza keeper worthy for $10 in a 12 team mixed auction?

Paul Sporer: I mean, the SBs alone should earn that, but I’d rather throw him back and see how it goes. He might go a buck or two more, but I can still see him in single digits, too. So throw him back

JD15: Seen very mixed reviews on Jose Peraza next year. What are your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: He’s a speed demon, but can he hit enough?

Sonny: Healy or Franco for you as cheap grab in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Still Franco for me, but I’d be curious how Eno feels given his Healy love

BLess: If Moncada was dropped in a 12 team mixed, keep 7 league, should he be scooped up? Or does he not receive enough playing time next year to justify keeping him?

Paul Sporer: No, I’d be surprised if he was a top 100 guy next year

JD15: 3 SBs for Dee Gordon last night. End of season steal spree coming?

Paul Sporer: Maybe? He’s on 7 game hitting streak

Minty: My bad. In a trade, how high would you pay for Turner?

Paul Sporer: That’s REALLY difficult to answer… impossible, tbh. It’s just so contextual. Pay for a top-90 or so player

John: Thoughts on Michael Taylor? I still wanna believe. Still a keeper in a 24 keeper, 18 team league?

Paul Sporer: Running that deep, yes

Paul Sporer: I’m with you in wanting to still believe. There are still some nice skills

Gest: Can you rank these pitchers for their upcoming starts against Philly: Koehler, Urena, Cashner.

Paul Sporer: Urena, Cash, Koehler

Mike: Thanks for the answer re: Cano/Sale. If not one of those and two of the other guys, Duffy + who for you? Thx again!

Paul Sporer: Then we’re adding Stro or Rodon. Really tight between those 2

Matt: Kepler – 2017 fantasy starter, or 1600’s German astronomer?

Paul Sporer: I can see him becoming an all-formats starter

Matt: Is Josh Bell going to be a worthy 12-team OBP roto league 1B next year?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. I’d target him as a corner

X: Richards – top 35 SP, right? Not overall.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, yeah… SP, sorry

Santa: Did you see the guy on Reddit who drafted and has only picked up guys with names starting with J? It’s both hilarious and incredible: https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball/comments/52xrdo/jwalking_a_fantasy_baseball_experiment_special/

Paul Sporer: This is hilarious and awesome

Minty: What happens to Moncada if he doesn’t get any better on defense in the AFL?

Paul Sporer: Pretty sure they’ll cut him… and maybe worse :-O

Paul Sporer: Juuuust kidding. He’ll go back to the minors and keep working. He’s like 5 years old

BLess: where would you rank Moustakas among 3rd basemen next year?

Paul Sporer: Late-teens, early-20s

JD15: In a 18 team league that has saves and holds. What is the best way to get holds late in the season with all of the main set up guys already taken? Right now I have Blanton and Felipe Rivero. Do I mainly try and find good matchups or do I first look at true talent?

Paul Sporer: Look for lefties who come in for key outs late

Reggie: Not sure if I should get Finnegan against the Pirates. Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: The matchup barely matters to me with him bc his talent can handle anyone when he’s on. The problem is he’s SUPER volatile. He has multiple deep no-hit bids, but also leads baseball in BBs and the NL in HRs

Santa: Realistically is this the best season we’re going to get out of Mookie?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, probably so. He’s been an absolute monster

Spoopy: How early is Trea Turner gonna go next year in drafts?

Paul Sporer: He just went 53rd in a 12-team mock I’m in

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll regularly be a fifth-sixth rounder

X: Who’s better in 2017, Blackmon or Joc P? R, HR, OBP, SLG only.

Paul Sporer: Blackmon. I’m a Joc believer, but it’s hard to see a reason to project him over CB

Matt: Just got here – sorry if my questions have already been asked! Just upbid Cotton to a fully recoupable salary for next year. Is he worth a keeper flier?

Paul Sporer: Deeeep AL

Santa: Which two AL teams make the wildcard?

Paul Sporer: No idea, it’s WIDE open. So I’ll pick my Tigers as one and then Toronto as the other. I just can’t say with any confidence how it’s gonna play out these last 2 weeks

X: Is Castellanos a keeper in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, definitely

It hurts when I pee: Where will Willson Contreras rank among catchers for ’17?

Paul Sporer: Top 12

Matt: Thoughts on Iglesias as a keeper. Purchased him as a closer – Eno seems to think they’ll try for rotation again. $7 next year which I like more as a closer than starter…

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m w/Eno. I think he still gets a shot at starting. $7 isn’t a bad gamble either way

Joseph : Might be desperate for a SP come Saturday — Leake @ SF or Liriano @ LAA? It might come to this. Any other weekend recs?

Paul Sporer: Upside: Liriano; floor: Leake — godspeed

X: Who’s better in 2017, Bumgarner or Carrasco? K, HR9, ERA, WHIP only.

Paul Sporer: Kinda coinflippy, but I’ll lean toward the longer track record in the easier league and better park – Bummy

Seabass: Paul, I got passed on for a promotion at work. Can I be the Mets manager now?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Matt: CBS has Danny Duffy rated 98 overall. How should he be valued coming into next season. Is hoping for him as a #3 too much? How about a #2?

Paul Sporer: A 3 isn’t TOO much, but I wouldn’t go in expecting a #2

Seabass: Do you even lude bro?

Paul Sporer: You have any?

Bart: 2017 Keepers, Villar or Segura and G Sanchez or Carrasco?

Paul Sporer: Villar for sure. I’m really torn on Sanchez v. Carrasco. I usually lean hitters, but I think Carrasco for me

John: Will Kyle Gibson ever break out?

Paul Sporer: He uses Proactiv now, so I doubt it

spork: David Dahl or Ronald Dahl: h2h, traditional, ww2

Paul Sporer: I dunno, I only draft Roald Dahl in leagues that count giant peaches which traditional doesn’t so David

Minty: Haha I know Moncada is super young and raw. I wasn’t sure if you thought he’d work on it more in the minors or if they’d try a different position.

Paul Sporer: Just wanted to rib you a bit 🙂

JD15: Re lefties coming in for key outs: Layne (NYY), Dunn (MIA), Rzcepsinkinfsidnndf (sp.) (WAS)?

Paul Sporer: Dunn or Scrabble

Matt: Picked up Cobb for $1 this year – bumps to $3 next year. What are you thoughts on his as a rotation peice next year? 3,4,5/stream?

Paul Sporer: I LOVE Cobb so I was bummed that he got hurt. I can see him being a solid every-start pitcher by midsummer

Matt: Trea Turner in my minors – planning on calling up next year. He’s useful in the OF (got Kinsler at 2B at $14) but would be much more valuable at SS. What are the chances he picks up eligibility next year (he’s losing it in the offseason)?

Paul Sporer: Low, they still have Espy for another year

Chris: Do you keep Hyun-Soo Kim in a 20-team, 20-keeper league?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can swing top 400 for him

Sonny: Grichuck or Pederson have a higher ceiling than Meadows? Have room for 2017 dynasty

Paul Sporer: I think both have higher ’17 ceilings, but I really like Meadows. If you really want him, do it over Grich

Seabass: Wanna come to the GKL Winter Meeting next year? March 2017 in Boston. Come on by and we’ll buy you a beer.

Paul Sporer: What’s GKL?

MD: Hey man, any thoughts on Wacha or Joe Ross ROS? Any of them worth dropping Angry Yordano for in a deep 20-teamer? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: ROS so not keeper considerations? I’d probably just stand pat even though I prefer both over Ventura in a keeper situation

Paul Sporer:

Guest: Keep two: C. Seager ($24), Yelich ($11), Dozier ($15), K. Seager ($15), Piscotty ($7)

Paul Sporer: Piscotty and Kyle. Love Corey, but is really $9 bucks better than big bro? Dozier likely to meander back toward his previous season. Yelich is close and I wouldn’t clown you for going him over Kyle if that’s your pref.

Friend: Currently in my H2H championship and the anxiety of living and dying with every at-bat is killing me and giving me IBS.

Paul Sporer: I completely understand, but that’s actually why we play – for that feeling. Crazy, isn’t it?

Matt: What are your thoughts on Jared Eickhoff? I have it at $4, going to $6. I liked him enough to pick that price in auction preseason, but am concerned that $6 might be too high next year. You can get back up to $4 of any dropped player.

Paul Sporer: He’s a solid arm, but I’m with you that $6 just isn’t that special. You can find an Eickhoff like substance for cheaper, IMO

spork: is corey seager a 1st rounder in 2017?

Paul Sporer: Not for me

Paul Sporer: But close

Minty: How worried are you about Salazar for next year?

Paul Sporer: I’ve got some real concern there

Avi: Would you go for Luke Weaver tomorrow vs. the Giants or is it possible based on recent play that neither team will win any of the 4 games in the series.

Paul Sporer: LOL that is a distinct possibility!

Paul Sporer: Really impressed by Weaver in Arizona Fall League last November, btw

Bobby Bonds: Ozuna a keeper in a keep 5 12 team OBP league? Him in 15th, Pollock in 8th, Gyorko in 15th, Russell in 12th. Pick 2.

Paul Sporer: Pollock and Russell

Paul Sporer: I still like Ozuna even though he fell off his early pace, but OBP definitely hurts him

spork: Can Villar repeat in 2017? What about Segura? 2016 MI felt deeper than OF in 2016 …

Paul Sporer: It was deeper. MI was fire. I believe in Villar more, but I’ve adjusted my thoughts on Segura some. I wasn’t in on him in draft season or early on when he was performing, but this has been a really nice season for him

Double D: 12 team, 1 Catcher mixed league, do you like Bregman or Sanchez better for the next 3 years?

Paul Sporer: Breg

Nick: Is Alex Reyes bullpen bound?

Paul Sporer: If he can’t find the plate regularly, yes, but he’ll get some time to try and figure it out. He’s 21.

Nick: When do you think Scherzer starts declining?

Paul Sporer: NEVERRRRR!!!!

Paul Sporer: Kidding. I dunno, though, next year or two. Eventually he won’t have enough to overcome those HRs at the same level

Max: Favorite reliever to use in DD?

Paul Sporer: Lots of good options here, but Kelvin Herrera for me. Devastating stuff w/that heater running 95+, insane change, filthy hammer. Don’t sleep on that flashback Joaquin Benoit for the Tigers, either

Matt: SS is a serious hole for me next year. Will I be able to call up JP Crawford to start the season? Will I *want* to call him up? (All young SS’s are owned at league min contracts, so the FA market is almost non-existent).

Paul Sporer: To start the season, probably not.

Paul Sporer: He’s just 21 and wasn’t exactly awesome in AAA. I’d target June.

Bassitt of Deplorables: Think there’s anything to the notion that Wil Myers is suffering from never having played this many games in a season? He got to 20/20 before just about everyone else and then…just stayed right there.

Paul Sporer: I think it’s more likely he’s just dealing with a nagging injury or two again. Not bad enough to miss time, but enough to impact his play

marcologs: miggy fell to 15 in my h2h this year. any chance his solid season keeps him from sliding further, or are people afraid of his age/pitcher friendly ballpark?

Paul Sporer: They’ll be afraid. He’ll be top 20, but not a surefire 1st rounder

Santa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMIwjzU_2nY

Daniel: I’m going to keep professing my love for DJ LeMahieu in these chats until you and Brad are on board.

Paul Sporer: Someone must not listen to the podcast!

Paul Sporer: I jumped on the DJLM train

Skittles: Need a Utility power bat ROS: Kendrys, Cron, Moss, or Santana?

Paul Sporer: Kendrys for me

Gucci: Which 5 players are on your ‘do not draft’ list next year in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: That’s a good article idea, but I don’t have a good enough list right now

Paul Sporer: Clay Buchholz lives on it, but that’s not even saying anything since others are finally realizing he’s straight booty

Doot doot: Would it be crazy to keep Trea over Correa in the 10th round next year in a two-player keeper with 10 teams? That’d be crazy, right?

Paul Sporer: Both are a 10th? You can’t do it. If Correa is like a 1st-2nd and Turner is a 10th, then you could be talkin something

Daniel: If Papi reneges on retiring, would you keep him for a modest price?

Paul Sporer: I guess, but I really don’t see him coming back

Paul Sporer: It’s not his skills, it’s the work it takes to keep him on the field that he’s retiring from.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, that’s gonna do it for today!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much for coming out. Obviously we’ll still be answering 2016 questions next week, but feel free to bring your keeper and 2017-based Qs next week and beyond, too.

Paul Sporer: Peace out.