The A’s may not boast one of the more prolific rotations in baseball but entering the season they certainly featured one of the deepest. Now with Felix Doubront lost to Tommy John Surgery and one of my favorite sleepers, Chris Bassitt, likely facing a similar fate, the rotation suddenly looks a tad shallower. So this week we look at two pitchers available in a vast majority of leagues who’ve either made it back to the East Bay or who we can expect to arrive there shortly.

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Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter.

Yesterday, I discussed the starting pitchers whose xK% most exceed their actual strikeout rates. Today, I’ll look at the other side of the list — those starting pitchers whose actual strikeout rates most exceed their xK% marks. These pitchers are at significant risk for regression.

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I’ve long wanted to toy around with a league format where pitcher’s hitting stats – only the counting ones, not averages – are a bump to your team. It’s tough, because the value between pitchers in the two leagues is already a little askew, and N.L. arms would get a boost, but wouldn’t you love for one of your star pitchers to also give you this:

The Cardinals turn everyone into a hitter.

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5/2/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• What’d you learn from April? (3:15)
• Jeff’s HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings
  • Russell Martin (19:50)
  • Edwin Encarnacion (25:00)
  • Lorenzo Cain (31:00)
  • Khris Davis (34:45)

Strategy Section:

Closer Updates

• Huston Street DL, Joe Smith in (41:00)
• How good is Jeanmar Gomez? (45:20)
• Zach Britton ankle sprain (51:45)
• JJ Hoover out (59:33)

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• Raisel Iglesias is on the DL with shoulder impingement.

Iglesias, 26, felt a “pinch” in the shoulder while throwing a bullpen session on Friday. It’s unclear at this point how long he’ll be sidelined.

“It looks like it’s an impingement inflammation,” Reds manager Bryan Price said. “We will know a lot more when we see him on Monday. However, it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a long-tenured stint on the DL.”

I am not surprised one bit with Iglesias’s injury. I own him in several leagues and have noticed his velocity (91.7 to 90.4) and Zone% (50.5% to 46.3%) down compared to last year. Not surprisingly, he showed up my initial PAIN Report as a pitcher with a possible injury.

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TIER ONE
Jose Altuve

Altuve isn’t just the best second baseman in fantasy baseball, he’s currently the most valuable overall player regardless of position. The soon-to-be 26-year-old already has seven homers and nine steals on the board, while hitting a robust .306/.404/.633. The power is the truly incredible part, seeing as he launched 36 total bombs in his first 668 major-league games.

Altuve’s walk rate currently sits at 11.4%, which even in a one-month sample is a huge improvement from last year’s 4.8%. Wrap your head around this one: Last year, Altuve earned 25 unintentional walks. Through one month of 2016, he’s already got 13.

Altuve was already the top fantasy 2B, and it’s staggering to see how much better he’s getting. I mean, the guy is about halfway to his HR and BB totals from last year after just 25 games. Oh, and he’s doing all this with a career-low .303 BABIP, despite career-high line-drive (30.1%) and hard-hit (32.5%) rates. Unreal.

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When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who has turned the Jose Reyes soap opera and strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

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Agenda

1. SaberSim’s Roster
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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Episode 147 – Featuring Ben Lindbergh

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Matt retiring from weather predictions, an interview with Ben Lindbergh about his new book (starts around 39:30), Matt’s upcoming trip to Montreal, boring but useful shortstop options, Matt Wisler’s continuing and exploitable platoon split, Matt gloating about a good Nick Markakis pick, digging deep to find Brewers lefties against Jered Weaver, digging deep to find any Angels hitters, the perfect time to use Jon Gray, and Matt’s up-and-down weekend with Marlins pitcher picks.

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Two years ago, I modified the first equation I developed to yield an improved expected strikeout rate formula. The formula uses a trio of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s looking, swinging, and foul strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates as per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. I calculated the xK% marks for all qualified starting pitchers, compared it to their xK% marks, and sorted. Let’s discuss those with the most significant potential upside, as suggested by xK%.

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