MASH Report – Initial 2016 HURT Rankings
• Raisel Iglesias is on the DL with shoulder impingement.
Iglesias, 26, felt a “pinch” in the shoulder while throwing a bullpen session on Friday. It’s unclear at this point how long he’ll be sidelined.
“It looks like it’s an impingement inflammation,” Reds manager Bryan Price said. “We will know a lot more when we see him on Monday. However, it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a long-tenured stint on the DL.”
I am not surprised one bit with Iglesias’s injury. I own him in several leagues and have noticed his velocity (91.7 to 90.4) and Zone% (50.5% to 46.3%) down compared to last year. Not surprisingly, he showed up my initial PAIN Report as a pitcher with a possible injury.
• Huston Street is on the DL with a strained oblique. This injury’s return time can be 15 days or a couple of months. Tough to tell. Here are the return times from other pitchers with the same injury.
As it can be seen, the median time to return is a month with a decent amount taking over a month which drives up the average (source).
• Chris Bassitt is out for a while. He is trying to make the decision to have Tommy John surgery or try to return from a partially torn ligament.
Bassitt, who underwent an MRI on Friday after being placed on the disabled list with a sprained elbow, will seek a second opinion next week before determining his next course of action.
The 27-year-old is scheduled to see Dr. Timothy Kremchek in Cincinnati on Thursday, the same surgeon who performed A’s left-hander Felix Doubront’s Tommy John operation earlier this month.
• Dalier Hinojosa looks like he will miss the required 15 days as he is dealing with a hand bruise.
• A good three to four months after the first reported tryout, Tim Lincecum is supposed to finally have his tryout Friday in the Phoenix area. Or at least until it gets postponed again, but the Royals already have the information they need.
• For those holding Tyler Skaggs and hoping for a call-up, the wait will be a bit longer as his shoulder is acting up.
• In redraft leagues, Sam Fuld is droppable as he is out for the entire 2016 season because he will need shoulder surgery.
• Miguel Montero is down-and-out with a bad back.
• Craig Gentry’s back has forced him on the DL.
• Cleveland lost their backup catcher, Roberto Perez, with a bad cut on this throwing hand.
• Daniel Webb (inflamed elbow) continues a recent list of players who you don’t care who went on the DL.
Fastball velocity reading for pitchers returning from the DL
• Yu Darvish was sitting around 94 mph in his first minor league start.
In his first game since Aug. 8, 2014, the Rangers right-hander threw 24 fastballs averaging 94.3 mph while topping 97 mph on a couple of occasions, according to media reports.
His seasonal average velocities before the operation:
2012: 92.8 mph
2013: 92.9 mph
2014: 92.4 mph
I have no concerns yet with the velocity. I would not be surprised if it drops a bit as he goes further and further into games.
• A small mention of Anthony DeSclafani’s velocity in the minors.
DeSclafani, who started the season on the disabled list with a strained oblique, threw 77 pitches through five innings of the Dragons’ 6-4 loss to Clinton. He was on an 85-pitch limit. He allowed three hits, walked one and struck out three. His fastball routinely hit 93 mph and reached 95 in the first inning, but there was some discomfort reported.
Sounds good with his 2015 average fastball velocity sitting at 92.5 mph.
• Jared Hughes average fastball velocity is up about 1 mph.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
Comparing 2013-2015 to 2016 (min 1 PA in each season)
Looking at the top 15 or so scores, I could almost make a good case for each one being hurt (Adam Jones has admitted to playing hurt). I am a little swamped with other work, so I won’t go into any deep analysis, but some people have been asking for the report.
Players on the 2016 DL
The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Bryan Price’s quote doesn’t jibe with your tool: pitchers with shoulder impingements can be out a long time
He was making stuff up in that quote. The team’s and medical staff will see Iglesias today for a real report.
When was the last time Tulowitzki wasn’t listed in red in one of these PAIN reports? He always seems to be there near the top.
I had the same thought about David Wright, he’s been hurt for so long I am genuinely surprised that even with a three year horizon he is still showing signs of decline.
I am not sure, maybe both are aging faster than others and there ISO and Contact% is dropping faster than normal
With Severino’s and Corbin, do you think it is just mechanical or are they hiding injuries?
With Corbin, it looks like he is going to his change a bunch and it is getting crushed.
Two things with Severino. Signs pointed to regression in ’16 (FIP > ERA) and he has an crazy .417 BABIP right now.
I think using Z-Contact% and Hard% may be a small improvement here over Contact% and ISO just IMO. Thanks for giving us this every year!
Nerd moment of the day but the reason the average is above the median is because there are outliers on the upper side. It’s not really because of the amount of observations above the median of 1 month (by definition, there will be as many observations above as below the median). It is because there are some cases that take much longer than a month. Without knowing exactly how you measure this, it might actually make sense to focus more on the median than the average since the outliers to the positive are unbounded (player could be out a max of forever but a minimum of 0 days) and fringe players could theoretically never make it back to the majors.
Most likely nobody cares about this point and this isn’t meant to take away from a piece that I consider must read every time you release it. Just happen to be stuck in an airport with too much time on my hands.
Again, great work on these and thanks for the always relevant information.
I like having both values because median is the most likely outcome, but the average and how far it is way from the mean shows the potential for a long recovery.
Think Shelby Miller might have a forearm/elbow problem, what with the lack of any control and all?