The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 2

Agenda

1. SaberSim’s Roster
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. SaberSim’s Rosters

I announced on Saturday that we’d be taking a peek behind the curtain at SaberSim this week. While we have some numbers available here on FanGraphs, the SaberSim service has an advanced lineup optimizer and other useful tools for sports betting. We’ll start with a couple optimized lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. Remember, SaberSim updates throughout the day so these don’t represent the final picks.

As Carson is wont to say, click (and click again) to embiggen.

SaberSim is all in on Jonathan Gray today. Gray possesses big strikeout stuff, and he’s up against the Padres at Petco Park. Unfortunately, this pick is rather obvious for bargain hunters. Gray is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel so it may be worthwhile to use him anyway. SaberSim filled out the lineup with a Brewers stack versus Jered Weaver, a couple Jays opposite A.J. Griffin, and a trio of stars with solid matchups.

The DraftKings version offers more of the same. The Brewers stack goes four deep here. Dallas Keuchel is a high risk, high reward choice against a powerful but strikeout prone Twins lineup. Personally, I’d probably downgrade Keuchel and Buster Posey for upgrades elsewhere.

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at some second choice rosters after I input a few conditions.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Saturday’s free FanDuel contest was won by 8mileallstars. It’s his third contest win – he’s doing something right! Too bad it wasn’t for cash. Here’s the leaderboard which excludes free contests.

We’ll stay on FanDuel for Monday’s 10-game main contest. We had some trouble filling contests last week so let’s keep it small. Here’s the link.

3. Daily DFS 

We’ve spilled a word or two about Gray and Keuchel already. Johnny Cueto is easily my top choice in his return to Cincinnati. If you squint, you can find minor problems with Cueto’s peripherals. It might be just enough to pass on using him tonight.

Jason Hammel at Gerrit Cole could yield interesting results. They’re both up against difficult lineups at a super pitcher friendly park. I think I’ll steer clear of their price points.

The Braves don’t have a strikeout prone offense, but that shouldn’t stop you from targeting them. Bartolo Colon is the latest pitcher to be offered the Atlanta feast. And we all know how much Bartolo loves to feast.

If you’re looking for a bargain without the popularity of Gray, I recommend trying Jeremy Hellickson. The matchup could take a hard right turn into the dumpster. The Cardinals offense is difficult to navigate with so many quality, non-elite hitters. The Phillies could be sneaky productive against broken Adam Wainwright, and most DFS owners will be wary.

Stack Targets: Mike Foltynewicz, R.A. Dickey, Jered Weaver, A.J. Griffin, James Shields

4. SaberSim Observations

Can’t say I’m on board with SaberSim’s pitching picks tonight. The top five reads Keuchel, Gray, Cole, Shields, and Wainwright. There’s something wrong with all of them.

Stack Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Astros, Mets, and Rangers. That’s a lot of stacks considering I only picked out five bad pitchers for the night.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: Nick Tropeano somehow survives his mediocre fastballs. The fly ball pitcher has plus offspeed stuff and decent command – kind of like Jerad Eickhoff. The lack of useful fastball makes him a hard player to invest in long term. However, so long as he’s on the wire, he’s worth targeting against most teams. The Brewers do have some offensive potential when at home.

Also consider: Steve Wright, Tanner Roark

Pitchers to Exploit: We don’t often have an excuse to round up terrible Padres hitters. Tomorrow night the Pads draw Eddie Butler. The former prospect lacks strikeout stuff and his command rarely sticks around for a full outing. Prepare for a low strikeout rate, walks, and plenty of balls in play.

Also consider: Justin Verlander, Josh Tomlin, Chris Tillman, Jon Niese, Martin Perez, Jon Moscot, Matt Wisler, Justin Nicolino, Junior Guerra, Alex Meyer, Collin McHugh, Chris Young, Scott Kazmir

Hitters (power): Kazmir hasn’t pitched well since joining the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Brandon Guyer is a career .271/.366/.436 hitter versus lefties. He also bats near the top of the order when opposed by a southpaw.

Also consider: Jon Jay, Alexei Ramirez, Seth Smith, Oswaldo Arcia, Steve Pearce, Brandon Drury

Hitters (speed): If you ask me, the Twins are getting managed into oblivion. Using Danny Santana as a leadoff man is a fireable offense – especially when said offense includes .400 OBP threat Joe Mauer. Regardless of what should be, Santana bats first and occasionally steals bases. He’s opposed by a decaying McHugh.

Also consider: Michael Taylor, Joey Rickard

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Finally, a dry day.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.