Today’s Roto Riteup celebrates not only the return of Game of Thrones and Silicon Valley, but the nearing end of a boring first round of NBA playoff action.
On the agenda:
1. Carlos Carrasco’s on the DL
2. Breaking down Aaron Blair’s debut
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitcher Options
4/24/16
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One top prospect debuted yesterday, and another debuts today. The Roto Riteup is blessed.
On the agenda:
1. Say Hello to Aaron Blair
2. Blake Snell shines in MLB debut
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitcher Options
Keone Kela had surgery to remove a bone spur and will miss around three months. The closer and set-up roles remain intact for now, but the next in line is a little foggy. Jake Diekman seems like a solid option to fill that role based on his numbers so far. I put Anthony Barnette in that role for now since he was given the 7th inning today with a 2-1 lead, and had a clean inning. Not saying that he is better than Diekman, but simply based on potential usage, it looks like Barnette will at least be given a shot to be next in line. As I write about Barnette, Sam Dyson lets up a home run to Todd Frazier that ties up the game. Then gives up the go-ahead run through a series of walks, HBPs, and hits. Dyson is still strong enough to keep the set-up role and is still in line for saves if Shawn Tolleson falters. Speaking of blowing the lead, David Robertson blew his first save of the year. After allowing a lead-off walk to Desmond, Desmond advanced to third on an error during his stolen base. He would then score on a sacrifice fly. Robertson also allowed a single, but also had two strikeouts.
Today’s Roto Riteup is excited to see a young prospect make his MLB debut today.
On the agenda:
1. Say Hello to Blake Snell
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options
Agenda
Before you know it, we’ll be turning the page on the first month of the season even though it feels like Opening Day just happened. The baseball season seems to move at about 300x the speed of winter so I feel like the All-Star break will be smacking me in the face way too soon. You’ve probably heard it a million times – even from me – that early season analysis is hard because of the scant sample sizes. Yeah, it is hard, but if it were easy then there probably wouldn’t be jobs for twerps like me so I’d best stop complaining and get to analysis’ing (some say analyzing, but I mean, it’s obviously analysis’ing, right?).
Let’s take a quick look at two arms on the rise and see if we’re buying them the rest of the way:
Vincent Velasquez – If you were inclined to get super-excited by his 16-strikeout masterpiece about the Padres, he promptly laid a bit of an egg five days late (though only two of the five runs were earned) and brought everyone back to earth. Though I don’t think a modest start erases what many believed after the gem: he’s good, really good. In fact, the only thing holding Velasquez back this year is an innings cap that he will face this year. Additionally, if you were ready to discount the big outing because of the Padres, consider that he drew 27 swings-and-misses – a rarity even in this strikeout area. Look at what this joker tweeted out:
Pitchers w/27+ swinging strikes in a gm since '14: Kershaw 35, Kershaw, Carrasco, Stras 30; Sale 29; Max 2x, Kluber, Hamels, & VV today w/27
— Paul Sporer (@sporer) April 14, 2016
We’ve had a pretty good start to the season. Here’s a look at the numbers through a week and a half:
4-3 record
3.02 ERA
9.2 K/9
3.2 K/BB
1.23 WHIP
And perhaps to illustrate just how tough chasing wins can be in this strategy, we went 3-1 in week 1 with a 9.3 K/9 mark, 2.8 BB/9 and 3.00 ERA. Through half of this last week, we went 1-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
Anyway, onto this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parenthesis):
RHP Rick Porcello – 21.3 percent ESPN – @ATL (62), v. NYY (102)
This is blatantly ripped off from a tweet I read from Marc Normandin of SB Nation, but since returning from the disabled list last August, Porcello has thrown 76 innings with 9.5 K/9 and a K/BB rate of nearly 6.0. Mix in a healthy groundball rate — though that has taken a dive in the last few years — and I think you might have something here. The Braves matchup is a slam dunk, and the Yankees may be tough — I’m especially looking at Porcello’s home run rate — but he’s too good lately to not give a shot here. Read the rest of this entry »
One of the players I struggled to rank to start the season was Hanley Ramirez. He is kind of an enigma in fantasy because the talent has always been there, and for a SS, has put together some strong years outside of injuries. The move to the outfield and to Fenway Park seemed like it would work well for his value, but instead turned out to be nothing short of a disastrous first season, despite just missing twenty home runs. Writers were all over the place with where to put Ramirez, and some writers thought injuries and the new scene played a significantly negative role and he was worth taking a flyer on this year. There is still a lot of season to play, but based on some of the rate stats I’ve seen so far, I’m selling big time.
First, let’s look at his BB%, K%, ISO and BABIP. One of the reasons I was down on Ramirez this season was the drop in his walk rate. One reason to be optimistic was that his ISO was not far off his career average and strikeout percentage was right in line. Additionally, his BABIP was much lower than his career rate, so it’s easy to chalk up his troubles to pressing and injuries. Then I looked at the past two seasons versus his career rate with those stats and turned this up:
| Season | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
| 2015 | 4.90% | 16.50% | 0.177 | 0.257 |
| 2016 | 3.30% | 25.00% | 0.14 | 0.333 |
| Career | 9.20% | 16.70% | 0.198 | 0.327 |
The walk rate continues to drop, his strikeout rate has risen, his ISO has dropped, yet his BABIP is around where it should be for his career. The number that really jumps out at me as an issue is the drop in the walk rate. If he had a strong walk rate last season and just started off low, that’s one thing. Now, though, after last season and to still continue to drop has me concerned. Is he just not seeing the ball as well? Is he being overly aggressive? That’s where I looked at his plate discipline numbers.
For this table I’ve included his plate discipline numbers for the last two seasons and his career. This is the table created:
| Season | Team | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | F-Strike% | SwStr% |
| 2015 | Red Sox | 34.30% | 71.70% | 50.90% | 69.40% | 89.30% | 81.80% | 44.30% | 59.30% | 9.10% |
| 2016 | Red Sox | 36.80% | 65.00% | 53.10% | 50.00% | 87.20% | 76.40% | 58.00% | 71.70% | 12.10% |
| Total | – – – | 26.80% | 66.40% | 45.80% | 65.60% | 89.80% | 82.40% | 47.80% | 60.10% | 7.90% |
He’s swinging outside the zone more than he used to, but that percentage began to increase when he went to the Dodgers, so although the increase is a concern, it doesn’t explain this much of a drop-off fully. He is swinging more than he used to, but he is also seeing a lot more balls in the zone, so that can explain some of that.
These are the numbers that worry me for this season: his Contact% and his Zone%. He is making less contact than he ever has, yet is seeing more pitches in the zone than he ever has. His swinging strike percentage is at a high and is falling behind in the count over 70% of the timejust after the first pitch.
In short, Hanley is having a rough start that other players have gone through and eventually came out fine. My concern is that the struggles aren’t suddenly new to him this season and appeared last year in some of these areas. I don’t have a clear explanation for why Ramirez is on this slide, and based on what I’ve seen this year and last, I’m staying far away and advise you do the same. Sure, there’s a good chance he’ll hit a hot streak and things could go back to the way they were. The lack of a disciplined approach is what worries me most and I just don’t see him suddenly turning that around with all the pressure surrounding him. He may need some time in a low stress environment to fix his approach, which he certainly won’t get in Boston.
This post requires some “class participation”, so if you’re reading along I would really appreciate you weighing in on what has become a highly active debate within Ottoneu leagues. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, the concept of ambiguous fantasy league rules applies to all, and today I’m looking for potential (creative) solutions on how to enforce the following rule:
Rule 1a: Each team should maintain at all times a roster of 22 major-league players that can fill out a starting lineup. The remaining 18 roster spots can be used for reserves, consisting of both major and minor leaguers.