In this episode of OttoGraphs, recorded just before the beginning of the regular season, Joe and Tom talk about some of their ottoneu-specific bold predictions (Joe, Tom), and banter about a few questionably notable recent events in baseball.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

Podcast (ottoneu-podcast): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I just spent that last two weeks on vacation with my family. Hoping to escape the dreariness of the wettest Seattle winter on record, we embarked for the warm and artery-clogging bosoms of New Orleans and Miami. The first week of the season is always a cause for celebration in my house but I have to say watching the grand ol’ game with a mouthful of beignets made the start to this season even more special. I think players would be far more receptive to the tobacco ban if MLB replaced tins of Skoal with beignets from Café Du Monde or Morning Call.

I also picked up a pretty rad souvenir for my 8-month old son at the Miami airport. I know that Legos aren’t really age appropriate since he currently feels the need to fit absolutely everything he sees into his mouth so it’ll remain perched far above where his grubby little hands can reach for some time.

But it wasn’t all powdered sugar smiles and medianoches at mediodía. There was plenty of belt-loosening self-loathing, GERD, and of course, fretting over my fantasy teams. You see in my home league, a 14-team keep-6 now in its sixth year as a keeper format, I was the proud owner of both A.J. Pollock and Kyle Schwarber. And while I had tempered expectations for both entering this season, I didn’t expect to have to replace 1/3^rd of my keepers before the first week of April concluded.

So as with my son’s new Lego Ichiro, I’m tasked with piecing together a team from the waiver wire in the hopes that it’ll ultimately prove greater than the sum of its awkwardly shaped plastic brick parts. And with that in mind, I’d like to recommend a few players available in deep leagues to replace the Pollocks, Schwarbers, and Tyson Rosses of the fantasy world.

Read the rest of this entry »

I considered titling this article “Buying Low on Sleepers.” But what is low? It feels more relative than the term discount. We have a general idea of what a player’s preseason market value was. Acquiring a player at less than said market value would be considered buying at a discount. So that’s what I’ll go with here, as the phrase “buying low” is generic advice that lacks the proper context to take action.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re not going to do this again, are we, Justin Verlander? Et tu, David Price? We were hoping for more, Taylor Jungmann. And Yo…OK, we expect this from you, Yovani Gallardo. It wasn’t a sunny day for the pillars of your pitching staff.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Although he nailed down the last two save opportunities for the Phillies, Jeanmar Gomez has not yet been named closer with Pete Mackanin saying “I don’t want to jump to conclusions here […] Let’s keep playing it out until we see what happens.” Mackanin won’t say it, but I will – Gomez is the closer in Philadelphia. He may not have a long leash if he were to start struggling but David Hernandez and company likely won’t be seeing the next opportunity.

• Craig Kimbrel had a forgettable night for the Red Sox. Entering the ninth inning in a tie game Kimbrel allowed three runs with Chris Davis taking him deep for a 449 foot, three run homer. Kimbrel’s velocity (97.6 mph) was right in line with what you would expect from him and he still ranks among the elite closers in the game. Keep walking, nothing left to see here except future saves and loads of strikeouts.

• Fernando Rodney was able to shoot his first arrow of the year, closing the door on the Phillies today. Rodney is unlikely to be a safe haven for saves all year, whether it’s due to poor performance and a role change or a strong performance and a mid-season trade but owners should be happy with the clean save nonetheless. Rodney is certainly secure for now but Brandon Maurer is the guy to own as a handcuff.

• Jumbo Diaz received the ball in the eighth inning tonight and blew the lead for the Reds. It’s early on but Diaz’ 3.86/6.64/4.95 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line is certainly less than impressive. J.J. Hoover isn’t a stud by any means but with Diaz and Tony Cingrani (who gave up two runs of his own for the loss) struggling his job remains secure.

•Quick Hits: David Robertson threw a scoreless ninth for his third save of the year. Robertson’s ERA was a little inflated last year at 3.41 but his underlying numbers were strong as normal and he remains a great option. After Chris Davis gave the O’s the lead, Britton pitched around a Mookie Betts solo shot for his third save as well. Jonathan Papelbon (4), Mark Melancon (3) and Hector Rondon (2) also recorded clean saves tonight.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

4/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Strategy Section

• Early Surprises, Who Ya Buyin?
  • Jean Segura (5:30)
  • Tyler White (20:23)
  • Eugenio Suarez (33:33)
  • Scooter Gennett (37:16)
  • Starlin Castro (42:45)
  • Gregory Polanco (55:25)

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

• Daniel Winkler fractured his elbow after throwing a pitch this weekend which leads to a bigger story.

Medicine will help Daniel Winkler deal with the physical pain that he will feel over the next few days. But there might not be a remedy for the mental anguish the Braves reliever will feel as he deals with the reality that his promising start to this season was derailed by a gruesome injury that casts some doubt about his future as a Major Leaguer.

…

An X-ray taken at the stadium showed Winkler fractured his right elbow. A MRI exam, which could be performed as early as Monday, will show whether the 26-year-old right-hander incurred any other structural damage to the elbow, which was surgically repaired via Tommy John surgery during the 2014 season.

A fractured elbow is the injury Jarrod Parker is dealing with again. After reading some of Jeff Passan’s book, The Arm, this elbow breakage shouldn’t be a surprise for a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. The doctors need to drill holes in the pitcher’s arm and in the case of Parker, his bones may look like Swiss cheese at this point. The bone is weakened to a point where the new UCL is stronger and the old bone just breaks.

Read the rest of this entry »

4/10/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Week 1 Overview (2:05)
• Jeremy Hellickson (8:40)
• Texas Rangers injuries, Nomar Mazara call-up (12:44)
• Mallex Smith up (16:25)

Strategy Section

• Volatile Closer Situations (21:00)
• SPs to Consider for Pick-Up (37:30)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

We’re just over a week into the 2016 season, and you don’t need me to tell you not to overreact to this tiny sample of game action. What I decided upon for this week is a look at three second basemen — ranked outside the top 15 in our experts’ preseason rankings — who find themselves off to hot starts at the plate. Who should you believe in, and who’s the beneficiary of small-sample flukes?

Starlin Castro (preseason No. 16) – BUY

Sandwiched around his most productive offensive season, Castro spent most of 2013 and 2015 scuffling at the plate:

• 2013 (705 PA) – .245/.284/.347, 4.3% BB, 18.3% K, .102 ISO
• 2014 (569 PA) – .292/.339/.438, 6.2% BB, 17.6% K, .146 ISO
• 2015 (578 PA) – .265/.296/.375, 3.6% BB, 15.7% K, .110 ISO

One of these things is not like the others, and a major question coming into the year was which Castro would show up in New York. The 26-year-old has lit up the scoreboard since debuting with the Yankees, with two homers and two doubles in his 9-for-20 start. Jeff Sullivan recently wrote an excellent article about some slight adjustments Castro’s made at the dish, closing off his stance and improving his plate coverage.

Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Personal Kryptonite
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Graveman, Sanchez, Mazara, Taylor
5. Factor Grid

Read the rest of this entry »