The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 11

Agenda

1. Personal Kryptonite
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Graveman, Sanchez, Mazara, Taylor
5. Factor Grid

1. Personal Kryptonite

I’ve always found Superman yawn worthy, but his weakness to kryptonite is a poignant metaphor for the human condition. We all have weaknesses. For some professional baseball players, their weakness is a general ineffectiveness in cold and/or rainy weather. We’ve had a lot of that through the first week of the season. Before bailing on homerless Miguel Sano, consider that his one week slump could be weather related. He’s just an example. In fact, he better not struggle in cold weather…he plays for Minnesota. I’ve lived there, it can snow in May.

Programming Note: I had originally intended to sort out the GB/FB data this weekend, but the lady of the house had flu. I also did my taxes. My advice, don’t be self-employed. As for the splits, I may get to them this afternoon. No promises.

Unrelated to the column: I went 2-for-3 in my season opener with a walk, two runs, and an RBI. I also pitched one hitless inning with one strikeout. I tallied 24 FanDuel points for my fantasy owners.

2. Daily DFS – Aces, Nola, Tropeano

Early: We have split action today with 11 games total. Five are early. David Price versus the undefeated Orioles should be fun to watch. Based on the matchup (Yovani Gallardo), I would expect the O’s to be defeated handily. If Jose Quintana can brave the cold, the conditions should ground the Twins bats. I expect good things from Michael Wacha against the Brewers. In Philadelphia, either side of an Andrew Cashner–Aaron Nola contest looks usable.

Stack Targets: Gallardo, Taylor Jungmann, Jon Niese

Late: The other six games are late. Need I even mention Max Scherzer versus Atlanta. It’s so must play. Or if you prefer affordable pitchers, Steven Matz has the Marlins in his first start of the season. Matz certainly has potential to be a valuable DFS and regular fantasy starter, but his talent isn’t on par with his non-rotund rotation-mates.

Jon Lester and Sonny Gray are fine alternatives on the pricey end of the scale. I bet they’re both relatively unpopular. The bargain of bargains is Nick Tropeano. He runs about a strikeout per inning with strong command and a few too many cookies. The A’s offense is far from dynamic though he’ll have a hard time earning the win with a six inning outing against Gray.

Stack Targets: Collin McHugh, Hisashi Iwakuma, Colby Lewis, Jarred Cosart, Brandon Finnegan, Bud Norris, Chris Young

3. SaberSim Observations

Nothing crazy happening on the pitching side. SaberSim is a big fan of Scherzer, Wacha, Lester, Price, Matz, and Nola – in that order. I don’t entirely agree with Iwakuma as the next most proficient pitcher, but I won’t argue the point. It’s reasonable enough.

SaberSim is loving Red Sox today, and I’m completely on board. Astros and Tigers also figure prominently. My only quibble – I expected to see more Mariners against Lewis.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Graveman, Sanchez, Mazara, Taylor

Pitchers to Start: Kendall Graveman’s velocity was up in his season debut, and he was throwing a good cutter. If the velocity sticks around, he could be a solid stream starter all season long. He’s a five to six innings guy. The A’s will have a quick hook with him since he has a shallow repertoire. Odds of a win or more than four strikeouts are low. He’s opposed by the lopsided Angels offense.

Also consider: Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago

Pitchers to Exploit: One masterful outing is not enough for me to change my scouting report on Aaron Sanchez. He certainly has the raw stuff of a better pitcher, but suspect command has me thinking he’s another Wily Peralta. I could be wrong; I hope I’m wrong. I’m still looking at Red Sox tomorrow.

Also consider: Jhoulys Chacin, Robbie Erlin, Charlie Morton, Mike Wright, Matt Moore, Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Chatwood, Wade Miley, Derek Holland

Hitters (power): Chances are, you’ve missed your opportunity to snag Nomar Mazara. He has a pretty swing from the left side, plate discipline, and power. He could be the next big thing to happen in Texas. He profiles as slightly aggressive in this early stage in his career. Combined with a high contact rate, he has a shot at a .300 average if not better. We’ll want to keep an eye on the usual factors like quality of contact, ground ball rate, and hit distribution. He already popped a home run in his debut. I’m projecting 15 to 20 more with a .310/.375/.480 line over the rest of the season.

Also consider: Darin Ruf, Jon Jay, Mike Napoli, Ben Paulsen, Josh Phegley, Franklin Gutierrez

Hitters (speed): Turn to the nation’s capitol for a classic episode of Dusty Being Dusty. Leadoff man du jour, Michael Taylor has a career .275 OBP, big strikeout rates, and a normal BABIP. In other words, he’s the kind of hitter you consider batting ninth behind the pitcher. So long as he’s batting first, he’s a regular streaming target despite the massive and obvious flaws.

Also consider: Tyler Goeddel, Peter Bourjos, Cory Spangenberg, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Well, we should have any rain, snow, or cold outs today. Most of the best offensive parks have the day off, leaving you with Philadelphia and Houston as the easy power venues.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.