This is a topic I probably should have brought up earlier in the draft season when more owners could use the concepts to select their keepers. I’ve decided there’s still a reason to talk about keeper value and inflation as it could inform your trade talks or how you think about the game in general.

A couple of my auction keeper leagues included hefty inflation this year. We’re talking prices over $10 above retail. As I’ve said in previous posts, the best way to handle the craze is to join the fray for a few big names then position yourself to be the king of dollar days. But let’s take a further step back. How should we prepare for rampant inflation before the draft even begins?

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Barry Bonds leads the Marlins in home runs. OK, so this won’t happen but you so know he could.

1. Aaron Hicks finishes as a top 24 outfielder

I made my fondness of Hicks pretty apparent in a previous piece on the Yankees’ playing time battles. In limited plate appearances last season, Hicks kept some pretty impressive company combining speed, power, and plate discipline. In fact, over 600 plate appearances, his numbers pro-rated to a 17/20 season. Moving from Target Field to Yankee Stadium, a 20/20 season seems plausible.

For Hicks, it comes down to two things: playing time and improvement versus righties. Given that Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran are the walking embodiments of a week old French loaf, the boldness in this prediction comes from betting on gains against righties. If he can do it, watch out.

Continuing with the Yankees…

2. The three most valuable position players on the Yankees at year’s end will all start the year as backups or minor leaguers

Of course for this prediction to come true, it hinges on the first. Perhaps it’s unwise to compound predictions. Perhaps I should diversify. Perhaps I’m just really excited for a Yankees youth movement. And no, I’m not a Yankees fan, apparently just an enthusiastic observer.

So obviously, I’m talking about the aforementioned Hicks. The other two missing pieces to the Morris Avenue Miracle are Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez. We saw what Bird was capable of last season when his number was called and ZiPS’ confidence in him bodes well.

Sanchez is the real stretch here but given his advanced approach at the plate and that he held his own as a 22 year old catcher in AAA, it’s not out of the realm possibility that given an opportunity, he provides above average production at a premium position. Now Top 3 on the Yankees? Look, this ain’t 2009 but this team still scored the second most runs in the AL last season. A lot has to go right for this to happen.

So, let’s say the Yankees lose Mark Teixeira for a prolonged period because, I don’t know, he hurts his wrist or he falls into a coma after watching one of his post-game interviews. Brian McCann strains a back muscle yelling at someone flipping a bat. Meanwhile, Hicks has already carved out a spot in the lineup spelling Ellsbury or Beltran and the offense teems with the Yankees’ future realized a couple years early. It could happen.

I suppose if you’re being litigious, you could argue that a breakout year by Dustin Ackley could place him in the top 3, making this prediction come true. And to that I say fine. Except that would never happen because everyone knows that the dividing line between a bold prediction and a crazy one is Dustin Ackley.

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Last week, I brought back the Pod’s Picks series, though renamed it this time since not every player was technically a “pick”. Pod’s Picks and Pans compares my ranking to the consensus (excluding my rank) at each position to determine who I am most bullish and bearish on relative to the rest of the rankers. Thanks to commenter bubba munga, I have calculated the rankings difference using a new method, involving the LN function on Excel. This properly weighs the more significant difference between picks five and 10 versus 35 and 41, despite the latter pair being six picks apart, as opposed to just give in the former.

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As part of my warm-up for my long run each weekend, I make sure to get a fire tweet off before hitting the road. It’s a good way to have the brain let the body know that it’s time to get that money.

To wit:

Decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be: Josh Donaldson will hit with 1 out and the bases empty in 70% of 1st innings.

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) March 19, 2016

That, in response to this:

The decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be. Kevin Pillar will open the year as the #BlueJays leadoff hitter.

— Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) March 19, 2016

OK, so it wasn’t a fire tweet. We all have off days. But the unofficial-official determination that Kevin Pillar will bat lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays is a little bit disappointing, and it stands to have an impact not just on his own value but the value of those around him in the lineup.
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• Brad Boxberger will miss about eight weeks with a core injury (hernia).

News Friday that the nagging discomfort Brad Boxberger felt in his core area resulted in surgery to repair a muscle tear means the bullpen will be without its only experienced closer for at least the first six weeks of the season, and potentially into early June.

Which means to say hello to Alex Colome or Danny Farquhar or Steve Geltz or someone else who hasn’t done it much trying to protect ninth-inning leads for a team expecting to compete in the American League East.

It will be interesting to see who picks up the Saves in Tampa. In shallow leagues, I may stay away from the situation, but in deeper leagues where every Save is huge, I would take a chance on Colome.

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Each year, before the season, I try to run a set of projected standings for my leagues. It’s not super difficult, though you do have to set aside probably about one hour per league to set it up. But once you have these projections, they can be extremely useful in figuring out your strengths and weaknesses, and giving yourself a realistic outlook for your team.

The specifics below are based on ottoneu, but the theory can be applied to any format.
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When it comes to fantasy baseball not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization.

*In this series, sleeper refers to someone who’s not necessarily expected to be a key contributor in 2016 but might end up surprising and seeing more time than expected. (And doesn’t refer to their overall prospect standing).

2016 Sleeper: Jose DeLeon, RHP: Shortstop Corey Seager is going to receive a lot of (justified) press in 2016, followed by pitching phenom Julio Urias. DeLeon, though, is a stud prospect in his own right and could have a bigger impact this year than Urias — who only pitched 68.1 innings in ’15 (vs DeLeon’s 114.1). This right-hander has a firm fastball, two excellent secondary offerings and strong control. With Los Angeles’ pitching depth already being tested in spring training, DeLeon could receive significant opportunity to establish himself as a big leaguer.

2017 Stud: Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF: Bellinger began his career known more for his glove at first base than his bat at the plate and he hit just .210 in his debut. Things changed in a hurry, though, beginning in 2014 and carried through ’15. He’s now the talk of the Dodgers spring training with his strong performance. After hitting more than .300 in ’14, he didn’t hit for as much average last year but he slugged 30 home runs and added another 33 doubles. Incumbent first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is locked in with an expensive contract that runs through 2018 but Bellinger appeared in center field 26 times last year as the club explores ways to fit the rookie into the lineup sooner rather than later.

Long-term Investment: Alex Verdugo, OF: Owned in just 4% of Ottoenu leagues, Verdugo owns a .322 batting average over his first two pro seasons. The 19-year-old outfielder has impressive contact skills (83 Ks in 702 career at-bats), can run a little bit and has raw power potential that he has yet to tap into. Once he does, though, his value will skyrocket.

2016 Sleeper: Hunter Renfroe, OF: The toolsy Manuel Margot is the rookie outfielder expected to make the biggest impact in The Show for the Padres in ’16 but Renfroe could add some much-needed pop. San Diego plays in a pitching-friendly park but this young slugger has the raw power to hit the ball out of any park. He just needs to tighten up his contact rate. Both Jon Jay and Melvin Upton are earmarked to beginning the season as regulars in the outfield but don’t be shocked if both are on the bench (or out of San Diego) by the summer.

2017 Stud: Jose Rondon, SS: The Padres suddenly find themselves with an embarrassment of riches at the shortstop position after acquiring Javier Guerra from Boston to go along with Ruddy Giron and Rondon. This shortstop is probably the least talented of the bunch but he’s a couple steps further up the ladder and should get the first taste of the Majors (Alexei Ramirez is just keeping the spot warm). He could hit for average and has the speed to steal 15-20 bases. With Guerra and Giron behind him, though, Rondon’s time as the starting shortstop in San Diego could be brief — but his skills should allow him to move to second base or be the No. 1 guy at shortstop for another club.

Long-term Investment: Logan Allen, LHP: A 2015 eighth round pick of the Red Sox, Allen is already considered a draft steal. He was coveted by the Padres and acquired in the Craig Kimbrel deal. The young southpaw is considered advanced for his age and could skyrocket through the Padres’ system — although ’16 will be his first taste of full-season ball. He has a four-pitch mix and potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Remember fantasy baseball before the PITCHf/x era? I fondly recall arguments over player valuations. “I think” was the primary selling point, usually followed by an outlandish projection based purely in wishcasting. Stats were found on ESPN or Yahoo. In other words, they were unsophisticated. Maybe you were already reading a fledgling FanGraphs where you could peruse any number of articles about how Player X will regress from high/low BABIP. We’ve all come a long way.

Nowadays, I can’t imagine evaluating a pitcher without the help of PITCHf/x. When another site asked me to rate dynasty starting pitching prospects, I basically told them it was a waste of time. There are the guys we already know about, i.e. Julio Urias. Then there is a mountain of muck to throw against the wall. Some of it will stick. Without minor league PITCHf/x (and MLB translations), I lack the necessary tools to find the next Jacob deGrom.

There’s another issue, and it’s the primary purpose of this article – pitchers are not static talents. Command can change suddenly, new pitches may be discovered, or the next Carlos Carrasco might spontaneously figure out how to use his already excellent repertoire. Previously dominant sliders can lose their tilt or hitters might adjust to a predictable high fastball.

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I won’t bore you with introduction. You know how this works.

1) Nicholas Tropeano, Tyler Skaggs and Matt Shoemaker generate more value than Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago.

My prerequisite Angels prediction that isn’t Justin Mason’s “Garrett Richards will win the AL Cy Young award,” this isn’t bold as much as it is irritated. One of Tropeano, Skaggs or Shoemaker will earn the #5-starter role, and injuries (namely, Weaver’s back issues) will affect the rotation at some point, too, so I would understand your reluctance to deem this bold. I anticipate, however, that some amount of poor performance will warrant the removal of one or more of the rotation’s key components of the past few seasons, thus opening the door for one of Anaheim’s younger, cheaper, more talented arms.

2) Jose Berrios will be a top-30 starting pitcher.

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Expect the Unexpected.

That’s the mantra you must repeat to yourself daily as you head into your auction or snake draft. Because as much as you think you know your room and how you feel about every player, you are wrong. Trust me.

On Saturday morning, I headed to SiriusXM studios in New York City for one of the best days of the year — the American League Only Tout Wars league auction. Here’s a brief review of the rules:

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