Today, I continue this year’s Steamer and I series, but switch it up to the other side. That is, the first two players I compared my Pod Projection to Steamer were those I was significantly more bullish on. Now I’ll take a look at a player I am far more bearish on than Steamer.

It should not surprise you that the fantasy relevant player I’m most pessimistic on versus Steamer is actually Xander Bogaerts, who I discussed last week. Obviously, I’m not going to talk about him a second time. So instead, I move down the list and find a big surprise – 2014 MVP Mike Trout. I debated whether it was even worth writing a potentially negative article on him because my opinion isn’t going to matter much. But I’m actually quite curious about what is driving my pessimism versus Steamer since this is a complete surprise to me. So let’s find out, shall we?

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

Well, would you look at that. Another season down, another season where the St. Louis Cardinals cycle through an embarrassment of riches on their way to one of the best records in baseball, and earn another playoff spot in the process. Yawn.

The Cardinals rode a 2.94 staff ERA, by far the best in baseball, in 2015, and while their peripherals – a 3.48 FIP and 3.71 xFIP – didn’t quite back up that dominance, their pitchers still produced the sixth-highest wins above replacement in either league. That’s not necessarily some Cardinals-specific magic, as it’s only the second time in five seasons their ERA has beaten their FIP. Still, thanks to a pitcher-friendly home park and a great bullpen to help strand runners, the Cardinals as a rotation outperformed their xFIP for a fourth consecutive year.

That bullpen was even a shade better than their rotation, a ludicrously high bar considering their entire rotation together had a sub-3.00 ERA. Trevor Rosenthal and company have just got it like that.

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3/2/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
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• @jasoncollette

Moves/News/Rumors

• Aroldis Chapman Suspended 30 Games (4:46)

Strategy Section: AL LABR

• Strengths of the AL Pool (10:00)
  • Marcus Semien email (26:35)
• Weaknesses of the AL Pool (39:17)
• Stars, Scrubs, or Middle? (45:25)
• Targets or Tiers? (47:00)
• Nomination Strategies (50:25)
• Some Good Late Buys (54:35)

Visit ootpdevelopments.com, click the pre-order banner, and enter SLEEPER17 to get the discount on OOTP17!

Watch T.J. Lauerman and I discuss some Spring Training breakouts and watch some OOTP16.

Our email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

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Years ago, I bought a nice set of knives for my wife and I was extremely excited to give it to her. She had been complaining about ours and these were a nice professional set. As Christmas approached, I began to pat myself on the back for nailing the gift. She had expressed a need for them, we had set a dollar amount limit on what we could spend for each other and I had gotten them for an amazing deal. Christmas day came and she opened up her present. She looked me squarely in the eye and said “Why?” That’s how I feel about the Rangers signing Ian Desmond. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is the Starting Pitcher installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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Over the offseason, you were treated to a front row seat while I problem solved a ridiculously expensive roster. First, I whined that my leaguemates wouldn’t pay for my stars – namely Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. Then, I detailed my execution of Plan B: Not the Birth Control. Then I jettisoned my back end of the roster players – trading some of them for nothing in return. Now, it’s time for the thrilling conclusion – my probable Opening Day roster.

The journey was instructive for me. I’ve never taken a true stars and scrubs approach to fantasy. I’ve always been a depthmonger. That’s right, I mong depth. Usually. This time, I’ll be relying on a few top 10 players to stay amazing. A host of $1 players will fill the remaining cracks. Let’s get down to details.

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Perhaps our very worst prediction of 2015—there’s intense competition for the honor– was that Jordan Schafer would lead the American League in stolen bases. As it developed, he tied for last in the AL, with zero. You can grasp our reasoning, though. Schafer, a year ago, was 28, was among the all-time top 100 in stolen base percentage, had stolen more than 100 bases over the previous four seasons of decidedly part-time play, and was the Twins’ center fielder of choice. He somehow contrived, over the course of April and May, to play himself not only out of the Twins’ starting lineup but out of professional baseball entirely. A .217/.250/.261 slash line, plus three caught-stealings and no stolen bases when your principal asset is speed, will do that to you.

So of course we’re eager to tell you who the 2016 version of Jordan Schafer is. By this, we mean the player most likely either to steal far more bases than anyone envisions or to put the quietus on his career. As we wrote last year, our mistake with Schafer was not taking seriously his spring training record, which was short on speed and long on slow. Thus, our recommendation this year comes with a sub-recommendation: Watch this guy during spring training (or let us watch for you; we promise to report back). If there’s evidence that he can’t run, and you haven’t already got him, don’t take him; if you’ve got him, jettison him, as his team will presumably get around to doing. Read the rest of this entry »

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

It was fairly easy to decide who should get the third Pod Projection treatment of the 2016 preseason. The second overall pick in the 2013 June Amateur Draft, Kris Bryant shot through the minor leagues after destroying minor league pitching and finally made his highly anticipated debut in 2015. He didn’t disappoint, as he posted a .371 wOBA and performed exactly as we expected – lots of swings and misses resulting in strikeouts, a strong walk rate, and excellent power.

Naturally, fantasy owners are expecting the sun, the moon, and the stars from him in 2016, as his NFBC ADP currently sits at 11th overall. He has been selected as early as fourth (!!!!!) and as late as 22nd. Are they crazy for their super optimism, or justified to believe an offensive explosion is on its way?

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We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

A few bad contracts, delayed success for a sputtering prospect, and another Dustin Pedroia injury conspired together to sink the offense of the Boston Red Sox in 2015, leading to a disappointing 78-84 record. The Sox aren’t used to being a pedestrian offense, and that’s decidedly what they were a year ago, on an adjusted basis, ranking 13th in baseball with a weighted runs created-plus of 98 despite ranking fourth in total runs scored.

The Sox still did well getting on base despite an average walk rate, thanks in part to a .305 team batting average on balls in play and one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates. That represented a shift from the past two seasons, when they were far more true outcome-heavy, to strong results in 2013 but mediocre ones in 2014. A moderate lack of power outside of David Ortiz was somewhat unexpected, and relying on a 40-year-old in his victory lap season, however good that 40-year-old is, is a risky proposition.

With so much long-term money committed to Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Rusney Castillo, the Sox opted not to make an offseason splash on the lineup side. That doesn’t mean this offense won’t be better, though. Progression from several intriguing young players, the chance for veteran bounce-backs, and a better optimization of playing time will work together to make the Sox one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball once again.

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After all of our focus on injury rates due to sliders and curves, which were good efforts but produced small results, it’s interesting to consider sinker usage as a possible marker for injury. Bill James did so, famously, a while back. He thought that ground-ball pitchers were only good for a short while, and then injured.

The response was swift from the saber metric crowd. Bill Petti couldn’t find an effect. Russell Carlton looked into injury prediction and found the following as important to shoulders. You’ll notice that ground ball rate is not included.

“First, shoulder injuries. In order of strength of prediction, the best predictors of whether or not you will have a shoulder injury in the coming year are whether you had a shoulder injury last year, how many pitches you threw last year, whether you had a shoulder injury two years ago, how many extra batters you faced last year from the year before (with a greater increase meaning that you were less likely to be injured), and the two-strike foul rate (just barely).”

Still. Let’s look at the top sinkerballers of the last three years. Perhaps sinkers are the source of the issue, not straight ground ball rate. You can get a ground ball with your secondary stuff, after all, and there is something about the sinker that combines internal shoulder rotation and big velocity that might actually be mechanically risky.

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