You all remember the clever hashtag #ManBearPuig that parodied the brilliant South Park episode ManBearPig, right? Of course you do, because you use Twitter and you love South Park. Sadly, Yasiel Puig is quickly shedding his ManBearness. After posting a scintillating .398 wOBA during his 2013 debut, his performance has declined for two straight seasons, with the fall off this year a precipitous one. Will ManBearPuig make his triumphant return?

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Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy implications of the Winter Meetings moves all week long here at Rotographs. Jeff has already done some pieces on earlier signings including his most recent on the huge pitching deals made this weekend. Let’s take a look at the three most recent deals of note, chronologically which happens to put them in order of least-to-most impactful for fantasy purposes, too.

–The Chapman deal isn’t done yet, so I’m holding off, especially since we don’t even have a general idea of the returns for Cincy–

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One of the things I love most about ottoneu is the robust user community on Slack. Contrary to more widely used platforms like Yahoo or CBS, ottoneu is just small enough to bring all of its users together on one forum. This leads to helpful services like leagues wanted, trade reviews, and freely available analysis tools.

If you play ottoneu and would like to join the Slack community, please say so in the comments. I’ve asked one of the admins to come collect anybody who wants to sign up. If you’re not in an ottoneu league but want to join one, the community is a good place to find the right group of players. Now, onto the bounty.

A couple days ago, community member Justin released a Surplus Value Calculator into the wild. The purpose of the tool is to help you determine which players are valuable keepers and which might be overrated. Expected dollar values for every rostered player are compared against their actual price. The tool uses Steamer projections to form the expected values.

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David Price signed with the Red Sox

As a whole, the David Price signing doesn’t change his perception or ranking. He is back in the AL East where he made a majority of his career starts. Fenway is a bit of a hitter’s park, so he could see a bit of increase in his ERA and WHIP. Also, the Red Sox’s roster is not set yet, but its defense could vary greatly depending on its final configuration.

The biggest impact will be which of the other starters gets moved to the bullpen or the minors. I would not be surprised if they keep all of them. Buchholz’s disabled list paper work is already typed out and ready to be signed. The rest of the staff, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly, all struggled at some point during the 2015 season. Right now it looks like Joe Kelly is the odd man out, all that could and probably will change by opening day.

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Coming into 2015, baseball fans everywhere had the same question on their collective minds: “Is J.D. Martinez sustainable?” The question was more than fair, as there were plenty of indicators that the now-28-year-old’s 2014 breakout could be a fluke.

It was all too easy to point at Martinez’s batting average on balls in play (.389 in 2014) and write off a good portion of his .315/.358/.553 slash. His power spike — from a .120 isolated power in 2013 all the way up to a .238 ISO the next year — was impossible to ignore, but naysayers still had avenues through which to dismiss it.

Martinez may have hit 23 homers in 480 plate appearances in 2014 — with another ten in just 71 PA in Triple-A before his promotion — but had never hit more than 19 in any season, at any level. Moreover, he hit just 19 total homers in the 864 PA he compiled in 2012-2013. Now all of a sudden, he hits 33 of them in one year? This was another area that was relatively simple to disregard as flukish.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Carlos Perez, C: A former Blue Jays and Astros prospect, Perez landed in LA for his rookie season and performed well — although hardly spectacular. He’s become a more aggressive hitter than he was early in his career and he doesn’t posses anything more than gap power. His strongest value comes from his defence and ability to control the running game (He threw out more than 30% of base runners in ’15), which doesn’t help at all in fantasy baseball. He’ll split playing time during the 2016 season with import Geovany Soto.

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Carlos Gomez stunk in 2015. That statement is relative, of course — Gomez is a good ballplayer, and 2.6 wins above replacement (WAR) in 115 games ain’t so shabby — but for a consensus top-10 fantasy pick in 2015, he was a bust.

For anyone who hasn’t followed the trajectory of Gomez’s career over the years, it has been a tumultuous one. A top-100 prospect who bounced from team to team early on, Gomez hit his stride in a half-season sample for the Brewers in 2011 during which his isolated power (ISO) spiked 60 points alongside season-long paces (600 plate appearances) of 19 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Fantasy owners who noticed the improvement and expressed skepticism toward a depressed batting average on balls in play (BABIP) were rewarded handsomely in 2012. Gomez paid even more dividends in 2013 as he demonstrated the legitimacy of his gains.

We’ve reached a strange point in his trajectory, however. Gomez, having turned 30 three days ago (happy birthday, Carlos!!!!) and coming off his worst offensive season in half a decade, may be declining or, at the very least, have fallen from his elite offensive perch for good. Gomez’s production in terms of weighted runs created (wRC+) depicts a sharp and sustained increase in production followed by a two-year plateau and then a profound leap off said plateau in 2015.

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Maybe. End of article.

In late August of 2014, the Red Sox signed Rusney Castillo to a seven year contract and the considerable hype was ignited. Unfortunately, Castillo battled injuries, was shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big league club several times and was disappointing at the plate at both the minor and Major League levels. But Castillo seemingly has all the tools. Will they translate into actual performance?

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Here at RotoGraphs, we’re deep into the heart of player profile season. Right now, we’re reviewing outfielders. Part of our analysis is geared towards our expectations for next season. Often, you’ll see us juxtapose our own impressions with Steamer’s projections.

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As a random side note, Paul Sporer reached out to me when he saw that I was going to write about Aaron Hicks to make sure we weren’t going to step on each others’ toes. In the spirit of preserving his and my work, here’s a link to what he wrote — which I have not/will not read until after this is published.

As a Twins reporter and low-end minor league junkie, I’ve been a Hicks advocate since his 2012 season at Double-A New Britain. Hicks hit .286/.384/.460, which to me is a triple-slash with some inherent aesthetic beauty. Hicks had 116 strikeouts that year — high, to be sure — but backed it with 79 walks. I had read reports on him that said he was ultra-disciplined to the point of almost being too passive at the plate. Could that even be possible?

I was about to find out. Read the rest of this entry »