On Full Health Projections

Here at RotoGraphs, we’re deep into the heart of player profile season. Right now, we’re reviewing outfielders. Part of our analysis is geared towards our expectations for next season. Often, you’ll see us juxtapose our own impressions with Steamer’s projections.

I usually look at projections in two ways – the Steamer-style median projection and a full health scenario. I’m not privy to the inner workings of Steamer. However, I do know that injury risk is included in Steamer’s projections. I doubt it’s anything as explicit as “Player has X percent chance to sustain Y types of injury.” It’s simply part of the regular regression that’s captured when evaluating large time periods of baseball performances.

Last year, I relied heavily on our publicly available auction tool – mostly because I participated in way too many ever-so-slightly different drafts to create custom projections for all of them. I tried to make my own subtle tweaks, but a trend quickly became apparent to me.

Some owners were either using the exact same tool or a similar valuation method. Probably also informed by Steamer. So I was stuck in a bidding war on all the Mark Trumbo‘s and Carlos Santana’s. When I tried to talk trade after the draft, I discovered the owners who didn’t bully me for the same few players were unwilling to invest in any of the mid-tier assets on my roster.

My theory (untested), is that the non-Steamer folks were using a sort of full health expectation. Let’s use Josh Donaldson as an example. We know he was generally healthy, and we know how he performed. In today’s game, nobody should be projected to offer a 122/41/123/6/.297 fantasy line. Too many things have to go right. But Donaldson was healthy, his teammates were (mostly) healthy, and that’s how he actually performed.

Donaldson will be drafted next season with those numbers in the front of everybody’s mind. I’d hazard that most owners buy or sell under the presumption of full health. Even though the Steamer projections are proven to be more accurate, there could be value in building a separate set of full health projections.

Ultimately, the two sets of projections would be very similar, we’d just have a different scale. Steamer tabs Donaldson for a 95/31/94/4/.274 season. If he and his teammates are fully healthy, he’ll probably finish closer to his 2015 performance.

Theoretically, awareness of full health projections should help you in a couple ways. If I’m right about the way most fantasy owners behave, you’ll have a better idea of how the market values a player. Each league has it’s own unique market, so you’ll have to apply what you know about your competitors too.

Trade talks could be easier. Too often, I find myself talking apples and oranges about a rival’s trade asset. I and/or Steamer project Trade Target X for 20 home runs, his owner says he sees 30. I can apply the same logic to my own players and hopefully find a trade match.

There’s a case to ignore injury risk, but you shouldn’t do so completely. The risk is that you find yourself too reliant on high variance, mid-tier players. Jacoby Ellsbury, Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez – these are all player who come with big ceilings if they stay healthy. We also know it almost never happens. That should be baked into their price.

But those are famous, injury prone players. Manny Machado, Yoenis Cespedes, and Nelson Cruz are all coming off big seasons. All three are the type of player who will be rostered by particularly bullish owners. Somebody will take Machado in the first. Cruz and Cespedes will go early too. I suspect that whoever buys these players will completely ignore injury risk. If you want one or more of them, you probably need to do the same. And that’s not really a good thing.

In a competitive league, fantasy baseball is largely a game of luck. Certain skills are required to efficiently manage a team, but the winner of the league will catch break out seasons like Bryce Harper or huge rebounds like Chris Davis.  There’s something to be said for making your own luck. Gambling on so-called injury prone players can be the easiest way to chase unexpectedly good performances. As always, I do recommend diversification.

So, a few take aways:

  1. Steamer naturally bakes in injury risk
  2. Steamer also naturally bakes out injury risk (the projection for Hanley Ramirez is an example)
  3. Many fantasy owners either under or over account for injury risk
  4. There can be benefits to having both Steamer and full health projections





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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SS is a black hole
8 years ago

I think the key is to plan for injuries. I owned Miggy this past season and this was the first time in his career he was on the DL.
Also own Manny Machado and Nelson Cruz in a keeper (and salary/contract) league, I was able to pick them up for basically nothing in the Free Agent auction because the other owners were overly cautious about injury risk. I could afford to drop them if it didn’t work out.
If this were a redraft league, I would take still take Manny in the early rounds next year and wait on Nelson Cruz more due to age than injury risk.
He’ll probably DH so injury risk is less of a factor.
Back to planning, I already owned a top tier 3rd baseman and other outfielders who could cover in the event of injuries. (It did suck when Stanton got hurt, too.)
I’ve found the best way to cover injuries is to gamble on rookies. I owned MiL players, e.g. Piscotty, Grichuk, Conforto, Schwarber, etc. who were able to fill in for the injuries after they were called up….and my team did finish 1st in the league, in spite of having the 2nd most injuries.
Obviously, how much you can do depends on the number of bench players you have, but in a standard redraft format there are very few MiL players drafted at the beginning of the season. Have to keep an eye on call ups.

Chicago Mark
8 years ago

Not trying to be a smart ass ss. Just trying to learn. What type of league is it that Machado and Cruz are on the FA wire?

Vottoman Empire
8 years ago
Reply to  Chicago Mark

It sounds to me like he’s using “Free Agent Auction” to refer to the auction draft of players that are not ‘kept’ in his keeper league, not the waiver wire.