I am pretty sure no one saw an eighth overall 3B ranking from the Giants Matt Duffy. Coming into 2015, he seemed to be a nice late piece in NL-only and deep leagues for the stolen bases and a decent average. The twelve home runs seemed to materialize out of nowhere. He was one of only twenty players with more than 10 HR, 10 SB, and greater than a .280 AVG in 2015. I get the feeling people don’t expect a repeat performance in 2016 and after looking over his performance I think his limited power is legit.

I will start with the easy projections, speed and batting average. The 25-year-old should be able to have a stolen base total in the low teens looking at his history.

Season: Combined SB
2012: 10
2013: 25
2014: 20
2015: 12

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Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen and shortstops. Today ! break down the outfield rookie class.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
137 — Randal Grichuk, Cardinals
134 — Michael Conforto, Mets
132 — Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals
132 — Enrique Hernandez, Dodgers
131 — Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
125 — Tommy Pham, Cardinals
124 — Aaron Altherr, Phillies
115 — Joc Pederson, Dodgers

Marc’s Top 5
Jorge Soler, Cubs
Rusney Castillo, Red Sox
Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Steven Souza, Rays
Dalton Pompey, Blue Jays

Honorable Mentions
Mikie Mahtook, Rays
Michael Taylor, Nationals
Jesse Winker, Reds
Byron Buxton, Twins
Stephen Piscotty, Cardinals

I’ve never been a huge fan of Grichuk and that was reflected on my pre-season list (He wasn’t there). I also didn’t expect injuries and disappointing performances to provide as many opportunities for him as they did. We always knew he had immense raw power but he tapped into it surprisingly well in 2015, resulting in a .272 ISO. Unfortunately he swung and missed A LOT (more than 31%) and the .329 OBP is nothing to get excited about. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance in terms of solid overall game.

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Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. Although I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, I’ll only look at a couple of positions at a time for the recaps. We’ll start with the catchers and first basemen.

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The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After looking at catchers last week, we continuing moving around the diamond and focus on third base.

The players were ranked based on their 2015 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2015.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

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The numbers on the surface tell a really good story for Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. Just one of his contemporaries was even within 10 of Dozier’s MLB-high — among second basemen — 28 home runs (Robinson Cano, 21). Similarly, just one player was within 10 of his MLB-high 101 runs scored (Ian Kinsler, 94). His 77 RBIs (No. 2, Cano) and 12 steals (tied at No. 8 with Jace Peterson) were nothing to sneeze at either, and he was sixth (of 20) among qualified second basemen in walk rate as well at 8.7 percent.

It’s pretty clear to see why Dozier jumped to No. 6 in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season second base rankings with a value of nearly $18 in a $260 auction, 5×5 format. He was a four category stalwart who only really hurt owners in batting average, where his .236 mark paled in comparison to the MLB mark of .261 for second sackers. Read the rest of this entry »

• Curtis Granderson just had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb.

Granderson underwent surgery this week at the Hospital for Special Surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb, less than a week after swatting three home runs in World Series play.

Granderson, 34, injured his thumb sliding into a base in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. He wore a wrap on it for Game 4, vowing that it would not affect him for the World Series.

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Rougned Odor provided his owners with $5 of value, but that hides the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his season. If you drafted Odor, chances are you dropped or traded him along the way. And I bet you’re kicking yourself – especially in keeper leagues.

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Entering the 2015 season, Kolten Wong was basking in the glow of a strong playoff series where he hit 3 HR’s. His Regular Season numbers in his Rookie season spoke to the inconsistencies of most young batters, but his output as a 24-year-old hitter with a good glove, and in a strong lineup, certainly commanded attention. Wong demonstrated a quick bat as a Rookie and it was not a leap of faith to expect that with experience his numbers would get even better in his Sophomore Season.

Three respected Projection Systems saw Wong producing these numbers in 2015….

In the run up to the All-Star break, Wong put together a very strong .280/.343/.434 line with a .777 OPS and a .337 wOBA. In 353 PAs, he hit 9 HRs, 18 doubles, 2 triples, had 44 runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 steals. His .310 BABIP was unremarkable and he sported a .154 ISO. With this kind of start, that incidentally should have earned him stronger consideration as an All-Star, he was well ahead of the projections. Wong seemed poised to deliver on the promise that we all hoped to see and even a good bit more.

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There is just over a week left in ottoneu arbitration (11/14 deadline!) and rather than rehash what Brad Johnson and I have stated in the past, I thought I’d look at arbitration from the point of view of the allocation target.

I’ve gone ad nauseum about what I try to do when I make my allocations, but it can be valuable to relfect on my reactions to what my teams are getting hit with. If something causes me angst, it’s probably a good way to go after my opposition, too.
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Yesterday, I reviewed my short list of pitchers that my xBB% equation suggested had significant room for improvement. Today I check in on those pitchers I identified as having downside, as this group posted xBB% marks well above their actual walk rates in 2014.

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