2015 Visualized: Third Base
2015 Visualized: Second Base
2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

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For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting shortstops.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the shortstop landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

I compared projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

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Every year after the RotoGraphs consensus positional rankings are published, I compare my column of ranks to a recalculated consensus after excluding mine. It’s a fun little activity and it allows me to figure out why I might be more bullish or bearish on a particular player than the rest of the crew. I published all infielders in one post in the preseason, but have already recapped the catchers and first basemen. So today I’ll finish up with the infield, reviewing the second basemen, shortstops and third basemen.

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The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. After looking at third basemen last week, we finish off the infield by focusing on shortstops.

The players were ranked based on their 2015 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and standard 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started. Players are listed only at their primary positions from 2015.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth. These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. A player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

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A few weeks ago, I looked at some dynasty first base targets. I’ll eventually be covering every position over the offseason. Today, it’s time for second base. There are roughly 20 second base prospects I consider worthy of rostering in a true dynasty format. So as to keep this article accessible for owners in normal leagues, I’ll focus on four of the biggest names at the position.

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Just prior to last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I’ve already written about the catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops and outfielders. Today is the review of the right-handed starters.

Actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Results
3.2 — Anthony DeSclafani, Reds
3.1 — Noah Syndergaard, Mets
2.8 — Lance McCullers, Astros
1.6 — Taylor Jungmann, Brewers
1.6 — Raisel Iglesias, Reds
1.5 — Nate Karns, Rays
1.4 — Chris Bassitt, Athletics
1.4 — Joe Ross, Nationals
1.3 — Chris Heston, Giants

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Over the past weekend at the AFL First Pitch Forums held by BaseballHQ.com, I participated in my first draft for 2016. It’s an NFBC 50-round draft&hold. The first 23 rounds occurred there in Arizona and the final 27 will begin online in January. Since it is third base week, I figured it’d be fun to take a look at how an early run 2016 draft treated the pool of top 15 third basemen.

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For the last five seasons, Danny Valencia has been the perfect fantasy streamer. The 31-year-old has a career 136 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (701 PA) compared to a meager 79 wRC+ against righties (1,222 PA). So here’s what you do: find when he’s facing a lefty, roster him for that day, and drop him the next day. Thanks for joining us…

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• Lance Lynn will miss all of the 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery.

General manager John Mozeliak, who detailed the team’s list of injuries and player surgeries two days after the Cards were eliminated from the postseason, did not disclose any concerns about Lynn’s health at that time. As it turns out, Lynn alerted the club to elbow discomfort more recently, saying he had pitched with it through much of the season.

The Cardinals sent him to Dr. David Altcheck, who confirmed the ligament tear. George Paletta, the Cards’ former medical director, then performed the surgery.

It is tough to determine when the injury happened, but he may have started the season with it. His injury indicators are all over the place. He started the season with a 1.5 mph drop in velocity, but also his best Zone% of the season.

Well, the 2016 season is already over for him and hopefully he will 100% ready for the 2017 season.

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On the ottoneu Slack community, this week featured an interesting debate on the merits of spending on Mike Trout at an ottoneu auction. There were two things posited about Trout:

1. Keeping/buying Trout and leaving the auction with him ties up too much money in one player, thereby hurting your chances to field a competitive team, and
2. Because of this, the team that does buy Trout is almost always looking to sell him, so you can get him later (with loans) anyway.

I disagreed, arguing that unless the market was messed up, paying fair value for any player should not hurt you unless that player underperforms. Agreement was not to be found, so data needed to be found instead.
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When the Dodgers traded Juan Uribe on May 27, long-time super utility player Justin Turner finally became a full-time starter. In the months since, Turner’s performance earned him praise, including from Dave Cameron on JABO, but it didn’t quite click for me just how good Turner had been until I looked at his offensive numbers from the past two seasons. Among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances since 2014, Turner has the 11th-best wRC+ (148), just behind Anthony Rizzo and ahead of players including Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley, and the likely first selected fantasy third baseman in 2016 drafts, Josh Donaldson.

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