Danny Valencia: Now Mixed League Eligible

For the last five seasons, Danny Valencia has been the perfect fantasy streamer. The 31-year-old has a career 136 wRC+ against left-handed pitching (701 PA) compared to a meager 79 wRC+ against righties (1,222 PA). So here’s what you do: find when he’s facing a lefty, roster him for that day, and drop him the next day. Thanks for joining us…

The headline says that’s not the end of the story. Valencia busted his platooniness last season by posting a 140 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .271 ISO. Against southpaws, he had a still useful 128 wRC+ and .160 ISO. He was used as a part-timer for most of the season and netted just 378 plate appearances. He also earned $4 for his fantasy owners – not bad for an undrafted player.

Valencia began the season with the Blue Jays who used him somewhat unpredictably. He started against most southpaws, but he also drew his fair share of starts against righties. In 173 plate appearances, he hit .296/.331/.506 with seven home runs, 26 runs, 29 RBI, and two stolen bases. Since a lot of the production came without the platoon advantage, most fantasy owners missed out.

Most teams don’t cut useful players with a .358 wOBA. The Toronto Blue Jays did because they had that many hitters. When they added Ben Revere, the team didn’t think they had playing time for both Valencia and Chris Colabello. They (rightly) opted to stick with Colabello. (For what it’s worth, I would have cut Justin Smoak.)

The Athletics snagged Valencia for free on August 1. They promptly installed him as their regular third baseman and cleanup hitter. He proceeded to hit a healthy .284/.356/.530 with 11 home runs, 33 runs, and 37 RBI in 205 plate appearances. That’s roughly a 30 homer, 100 run, and 100 RBI pace. Unlike in Toronto where he benefited from a high BABIP, he sported a reasonable .308 BABIP with Oakland.

Just how sustainable is this outburst of relevancy? In short, I’m not sure. His fly ball distance did increase six feet with comparables like Brandon Belt, Luis Valbuena, and Russell Martin. Let’s try a couple charts.

His spray chart tells me two things – his fly balls are usually hits and his ground balls are usually outs. Spray charts can be deceptive so let’s drill down.

The zone profile by ISO backs this up. He hits for a ton of power in the upper two-thirds of the strike zone. He does not mash low pitching. This suggests an obvious platoon usage – avoid Valencia starts against ground ball pitchers.

It’s probably worth noting that he hits for a low average on high pitches and a high average on low pitches. So you don’t actually have to sit Valencia against the ground ball guys after all – just don’t expect extra bases. Like I said, spray charts can be misleading.

The A’s will probably pencil Valencia into the cleanup spot in 2016. It’s not entirely clear if he or Brett Lawrie will play third base. Lawrie currently looks  like the starting second baseman, but that could change. Valencia still fits in as a corner outfielder, first baseman, or designated hitter. In other words, don’t worry too much about playing time.

The bigger issue relates to expected performance. Valencia is no spring chicken and will probably regress by some amount. The league showed no signs of adjusting to him last season, but it’s always a risk when a part-time guy starts playing every day. Steamer projects a 43/12/48/3/.250 fantasy line over 406 plate appearances.

As a regular cleanup hitter, there’s a possibility, however unlikely, that he posts a 90/25/90/0/.280 season. At the very least, I’m taking a hard over on Steamer. If drafts were held today, Valencia could be the biggest bargain on the entire market. I suspect he’ll be one of those over-priced “sleepers” by the time March rolls around.