It’s the last week of the season! And that hopefully means that all our wonderful advice will result in a first place finish after the final pitch is thrown this Sunday. But this also means that I was expecting to spend hours tonight trying to figure out what to write about. How does one dole out advice with just one week left in the season?! So I’ll go with an unoriginal daily starting pitcher start/bench theme. Naturally, with everyone in different league formats and sizes, it’s hard to offer a one size fits all recommendation. So I’ll do my best. Also, you’ll notice these are tonight’s matchups. I believe for some of you, you cannot actually pick up and start a pitcher on the same day, so advice on the following day’s pitchers would be more beneficial. If this is indeed your situation, speak up in the comments!

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Today marks the 14th anniversary of Zoolander being released. The line “But why male models?” slays me to this day, and I still slip it into conversation from time to time.

On today’s agenda:
1. Ryan Braun’s season is over
2. Sonny Gray’s hip injury
3. Quick thoughts on Ender Inciarte
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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The Astros bullpen continued their lackluster past month or so, as Luke Gregerson nearly blew it on Saturday against the Rangers. He gave up three runs on four hits and needed Will Harris to record the final out of the game. The Astros bullpen was rocking a 6.32 ERA in the past 30 days heading into Sunday’s play, second worst in the majors, better than only the Braves. Yes, it’s a small sample size, and it’s not like one guy is dragging down the group, they’re all to blame. Harris has been the best of the bunch, so if there are any changes, he may be next in line for a save or two. It doesn’t look like usage is to blame for the struggles of the group, as the Astros relievers have pitched the fourth fewest innings in the majors. Harris got the eighth on Sunday, with Gregerson bouncing back nicely to record his 29th save.

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Well, sorry for no analysis with this final week of starting pitcher values. Eno and I are traveling and I waited as long as I could to try to get this week’s starters. I implemented the changes people recommended last week which is the team(s) the pitcher is facing and the park factor(s). Most of the over-explanation is in last week’s article. Just let us know if there are additional changes you would like to see.

The author hopes you enjoy this birthday edition of the Roto Riteup.

On today’s agenda:
1. Various news and notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options

Various news and notes

Stephen Strasburg is on fire, posting his fourth straight start with double-digit strikeouts. Strasburg carried a 5.16 ERA in the first half, but before yesterday’s start, had a 2.24 ERA in the second half.

After being pulled from Friday’s start with tightness in his right shoulder, Carlos Martinez is now out for the remainder of the season and the playoffs. Martinez ends his campaign with a 3.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced.

Derek Holland got rocked by the Astros yesterday, allowing three homers over five innings of work. Three other Rangers took the hill in relief, and each of them allowed a homer, as well. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa hit two homers each, with Colby Rasmus and Chris Carter providing the remaining two.

A pair of Red Sox are now out for the year: third baseman Pablo Sandoval and pitcher Steven Wright. Sandoval ends the season with a .245/.292/.366 line, but a .266/.317/.427 line against right-handed pitchers. Wright ends his year with a 4.09 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his nine starts and seven relief appearances.

The Mariners are slotting Vidal Nuno into the rotation for Tuesday’s game against the Astros, which won’t be a slaughterfest at all and will be a perfectly happy day for Seattle fans.

Adam Wainwright could once again be St. Louis’ postseason weapon out of the bullpen, as he prepares himself to be physically ready to go in October. Wainwright will need to get some MLB action before the playoffs to show management that he’s truly healthy,

Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for today: Henry Owens vs BAL (Ubaldo Jimenez)
If you can pick up Luis Severino for a reasonable cost, he’s the superior play, but Owens may be a slightly better value.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Brandon Finnegan at WAS (Tanner Roark)
Young lefties were all the rage just two months ago, so why not now?

Today’s Roto Riteup comes on the second-to-last Saturday of the regular season.

On today’s agenda:
1. Various news and notes
2. Streaming Pitcher Options

Various news and notes

Carlos Martinez couldn’t even make it through 10 pitches last night before having to exit the game due to discomfort in his throwing shoulder, which I’m sure is totally normal and healthy and not at all a sign of impending doom. Martinez is a key piece of the Cards’ playoff rotation, so if he gets hurt, it may be a sign that the devil’s magic is losing its potency.

The Diamondbacks are going to give Zack Godley another go around in the rotation, as he will step in Sunday to start in the place of Jhoulys Chacin. Godley’s been serviceable as a big league pitcher this year, working predominantly with his trio of fastballs. An arsenal like that could bode well for a back of the rotation starter, but not really one who is fantasy relevant.

If you own Jose Iglesias, it’s officially time to drop him, as the Tigers aren’t expecting him to take the field again this year. Iglesias has proven he does have some skill with the bat, hitting .287 over 919 career plate appearances. He doesn’t steal many bases, and his place in the batting order prohibits him from scoring runs, so fantasy owners would be wise to avoid his entirely empty batting average.

After missing his scheduled start on Wednesday, Zack Greinke is now on pace to start Monday against the division-rival Giants, which will mean a lovely two-start week for those in Head-to-Head playoffs. Greinke was scratched due to a calf issue.

Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers or play DFS, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Barry Zito vs SFG (Tim Hudson)
Long may they reign.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Henry Owens vs BAL (Ubaldo Jimenez)
If you can pick up Luis Severino for a reasonable cost, he’s the superior play, but Owens may be a slightly better value.

Agenda

1. Bullpen Games
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Wolf, Hicks, Cubs
6. Factor Grid

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Mark Melancon picked up his 51st save, and his fourth in the last six days. The Pirates will want him closing games while they still have a shot at the division, and bear in mind that they’re still trying to wrap up home field in the wild card game. If they find themselves clinching one or the other, maybe he gets a rest to be fresh for October. The next guys in line, Tony Watson and Joakim Soria have been used heavily as well. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Joe Blanton pick up a garbage save late in the week if things are decided. Otherwise, Clint Hurdle is going to ride those three hard right to the last day.

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Fantasy baseball has made great transformations thanks in large part to the internet. The mounds of excellent data that have made the game on the field have also improved this game we play off the field. We’ve learned better ways to analyze players and while we still can’t predict the future, we certainly have a better understanding of what is happening with players and why. One casualty of the increased information should’ve been the age-27 breakout theory, but unlike the poor animal that sacrificed its life to be Donald Trump’s hair, this theory won’t die.

It’s not that we don’t see anyone breakout at 27 years old. It’s that being 27 has virtually nothing to do with it. Derek Carty covered this is some detail several years ago at The Hardball Times. And yet it persists every spring with lists of upcoming 27-year olds primed for a breakout. I’m fine with lists of breakouts, those are fun to read. It’s the adherence to age-27 that bothers me. Or the fact that a lot of these lists include guys who have already broken out and thus a huge season at 27 wouldn’t be a surprise in the first place.

I found 11 players who were mentioned as age-27 breakouts on various lists and I’m not sure any of them really had breakouts this year. Some of them were great, but we already knew they were great (Goldschmidt). Some had big gains from last year, but it wasn’t really a breakout since they had been good in previous seasons (Kipnis). Some just flat out busted (Ramos). Here is the whole list:

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This is the last week of the season for #2xSP, and I just want to express my sincere gratitude to anyone still reading at this point in the season. It’s been a rocky one, but after two really solid seasons I guess it’s OK to go all Ricky Nolasco on the bit and throw up a clunker. Due to some (very) minor health reasons I’m taking a short winter hiatus, but I plan to be back in the saddle for opening day 2016. Be well, friends.

Here are the totals through week 23 (with updates from previous listing):

35-48 record (same)
4.66 ERA (-0.01)
7.1 K/9 (+0.1)
2.2 K/BB (-0.1)
1.41 WHIP (same)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:

LHP Daniel Norris – 6.4% ESPN – @TEX (96), @CWS (88)

I, like many others, have always loved Norris as a talent, and he’s been pretty good when he’s been healthy so far with the Tigers. ERA barely tells any of the story, and his 3.90 ERA in Motown is virtually the same as he had with the Jays (3.86), but he’s really cleaned up his rates if we’re going to compare the small-ish samplings (five starts with Toronto, six with Detroit). The strikeout rate is roughly the same and around the the league average, but Norris has walked one-third as many batters (by per nine rates) as he did with the Jays. Three of his six starts with Detroit have resulted in zero or one earned runs, and two of the other three were three runs apiece. The most worrisome thing here is durability, as he’s failed to pitch through the sixth in four of six starts. Mind you, the pickings were pretty slim this week as teams have been shutting players down and dipping deep into their 40-man bags of tricks to get creative this September. Should Norris see the back end of this week — and I expect that he will — you should be thusly rewarded. Read the rest of this entry »