Closing the Coffin on “Age-27 Breakouts”
Fantasy baseball has made great transformations thanks in large part to the internet. The mounds of excellent data that have made the game on the field have also improved this game we play off the field. We’ve learned better ways to analyze players and while we still can’t predict the future, we certainly have a better understanding of what is happening with players and why. One casualty of the increased information should’ve been the age-27 breakout theory, but unlike the poor animal that sacrificed its life to be Donald Trump’s hair, this theory won’t die.
It’s not that we don’t see anyone breakout at 27 years old. It’s that being 27 has virtually nothing to do with it. Derek Carty covered this is some detail several years ago at The Hardball Times. And yet it persists every spring with lists of upcoming 27-year olds primed for a breakout. I’m fine with lists of breakouts, those are fun to read. It’s the adherence to age-27 that bothers me. Or the fact that a lot of these lists include guys who have already broken out and thus a huge season at 27 wouldn’t be a surprise in the first place.
I found 11 players who were mentioned as age-27 breakouts on various lists and I’m not sure any of them really had breakouts this year. Some of them were great, but we already knew they were great (Goldschmidt). Some had big gains from last year, but it wasn’t really a breakout since they had been good in previous seasons (Kipnis). Some just flat out busted (Ramos). Here is the whole list:
| Player | 2015 | 2014 | Prev High* | Chg. 14-15 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 162 | 155 | 156 | 7 |
| A.J. Pollock | 131 | 135 | 98 | -4 |
| Justin Upton | 122 | 133 | 141 | -11 |
| Kyle Seager | 121 | 127 | 127 | -6 |
| Kole Calhoun | 108 | 125 | 125 | -17 |
| Brandon Belt | 134 | 117 | 140 | 17 |
| Jason Kipnis | 125 | 83 | 126 | 42 |
| Dee Gordon | 111 | 101 | 101 | 10 |
| Khris Davis | 116 | 106 | 106 | 10 |
| Wilson Ramos | 64 | 93 | 111** | -29 |
| Dustin Ackley | 90 | 98 | 98 | -8 |
**min 400 PA for C
Goldschmidt had a superstar campaign in 2013 and was en route to another before a HBP broken wrist stunted his 2014 season. In fairness, I don’t think he was necessarily propped up as an age-27 breakout, but the list is so bleak this year that they might retroactively try to claim him just to say it worked for someone.
Pollock is probably the one that age-27 truthers will cling to hardest. He’s been the #2 OF behind only Bryce Harper this year with an excellent five-category campaign, but it’s essentially a full season of what we saw last year in 75 games. In fact, his wRC+ is actually a couple ticks lower this year.
So sure, he’s breaking out and having his best season ever, but is it because he’s 27 or because he stayed healthy this year? Last year’s full season pace would’ve put him at 16 HR, 31 SB, 89 R, and 52 RBI. He’s been better in all four categories this year at 18-36-104-70, but I can’t imagine the calendar had anything to do with that.
Upton broke out years ago. If he had posted a career year with 45 HR and 120 RBI, would those who subscribe to this theory consider it a win?
It looks like Seager was an age-26 breakout (career high HR, RBI, AVG, and SLG). Maybe that’s the magic number?!
Calhoun has more HR and RBI than last year, but that seems to be more due to 104 extra PA over last year than anything else. All three components of his triple slash are down from last year at .260/.313/.427 in 641 PA. This isn’t as much on him as the team around him, but he’s also scored 15 fewer runs than he did last year despite the added playing time.
Belt is another one that the 27ers might try to prop up as a success because of the uptick from last year to this year, but this season is right in line with his 2013 so I can’t see it as some sort of breakout. He has hit one more HR with one more RBI, four more steals, and three fewer runs this year in 15 fewer PA than his 2013 season. His batting average is up 9 points, too. It’s been a good season for Belt, but not an age-27 breakout. Plus, it’s hard to be a breakout when you still only rank 14th at your position.
Kipnis is yet another one who looks like a breakout from a 2014 to 2015 comparison because he was terrible last year, but this year isn’t nearly as good as his 2013 season when he had 17 HR and 30 SB. He’s at 9 and 11, respectively, this year. I never should’ve apologize for Kinsler over Kipnis because guess what? I was right and Kipnis still doesn’t have a full season of top-flight production. He gets hot for a bit (usually May-June) and then it’s all downhill from there. His career OPS totals by month: .660, .963, .861, .698, .685, and .673. I’ll never doubt you again, Ian!
Gordon broke out last year.
Davis got hurt and has been limited to 403 PA, though he’s still hit one more homer than he did in 549 last year. Even if had made it through the season and maintained this power throughout, would it be a breakout? I mean, he’s still hitting .243 on the year. There’s no such thing as age-27 breakouts.
Ramos has been an utter disaster this year.
Considering how bad he was in his first four seasons as a big leaguer, Ackley could’ve been the posterboy for the age-27 truthers if he had somehow broken out because magic would’ve definitely been the only possible answer for it.
The age-27 breakouts are similar to batter-vs.-pitcher in DFS. Most of the time, you’d have already selected this guy for reasons well beyond his age or his 14 PA against a certain pitcher, but those who follow these “strategies” are deriving meaning from him turning 27 or an 8-for-14 line vs. that pitcher. Oh after your intensive research, you uncovered that you should get Andrew McCutchen because he’s 5-for-17 w/3 HR against Dan Haren? It wasn’t because McCutchen is a superstar and Haren is a home run machine? Oh, cool. I guess BVP does work then. By the way, I don’t think BVP is entirely meaningless, but I think its importance cannot be derived from simply looking at a BVP page on Baseball-Reference. That’s for a different time, though.
For the last time, stop focusing on age-27 as something special and just listen to Aaliyah:
Great article. Yeah that’s old math. The metric I use is 3rd or 4th full season depending on how quickly development is going. I.e. Bogaerts. Younger players are being called up these days so 27 could put you on the ‘wrong side of 20’ if you were called up at 21 years old like Correa. And of course were constantly undermined by late blooming prospects. The 27 year-old tool can be useful when evaluating non-prospect call ups though.
Old math that some can’t let die. I still hear it tossed out casually by guys who definitely know it’s bunk, too. This article was admittedly more me venting my frustration w/it continuing to linger than informing the readership of something brand new.
We’re just at a spot where you can look at guys individually instead of trying to apply wholesale concepts to the entire pool.
I view it as the last year a player can break out before i cut bait, not a magical year. A guy like Ackley will no longer even get late round looks from me to revitalize his former prospect levels. A guy like belt is now just another weak 1b play to solid util play, not getting a possible break out bonus in what i will spend.
SO there is a use for the age 27 thing, but not gospel as you point out.
I think the author’s point is that just because Ackley was 27 didn’t make him a good breakout candidate. He was still in the same ballpark with the same organization and nothing but the magic of 27 was a good reason to expect a breakout. But next season he will have a huge ballpark upgrade for lefties, and get a change of scenery with a new organization and coaching etc … and now there are some good reasons to think he may improve or breakout, regardless that he is now 28.
I think your mistaking “the age 27 breakout season” with age 27 being when good players usually start to reach their prime output. Some may be a year ahead or year behind but their average, runs, rbis etc seem to reach a nice peak around this age. they may continue on for several years after but rarely do they become more prolific after this. Of course there are a handful of exceptions – David Ortiz being one. Also – many of the top rated prospects generally break out before this but their overall numbers tend to reach a peak around this magical “27” age.
I’m sure there are people who subscribe to the former old adage but most of the guys i know that have been playing fantasy for 10+ years look at it a little differently.
Play ball –
I just don’t think 27 matters at all anymore. The aging curve work by Jeff Zimmermann shows as much. I realize it’s been the start of the prime years in the past, but that’s changed in recent seasons. Isolating breakouts because they’re 27 never really makes sense to me. If you make a breakout list that has some 27 year olds on it, so be it. But the age isn’t the factor and that’s my main thrust.
. I feel like age 27 is closer to the break out limit. So if i saw a list with all 26-30 year olds on it as possible break outs, i would laugh. those are prime to decline years for most players. A break out list should be more about opportunity (as you pointed out here), and less about a magic age.
I’m not sure why service time is never mentioned in any of these age breakout pieces. The age 27 breakout theory started in an era of baseball when players traditionally broke into the majors later and were eased in, rather than thrown to the wolves. I would hypothesize that most player’s peak seasons occur during their 2nd, 3rd and 4th full years of playing/service time, independent of the player’s age.
Take that same list of 11 but eliminate Ackley (inconsistent playing time), Ramos (injury/yet to have a 3rd full season of PAs) and both Kalhoun and Davis (yet to reach their 3rd season) and you’re left with 8 players. Goldy broke out in 2nd full season, was even better in his 3rd injury shortened season and exploded this year. Pollock is in his third season. Justin Upton peaked in his 3rd full season (2011). Seager broke out in his 3rd full season (2014). Brandon Belt broke out in his 2nd full season (2013, and again in his 4th, 2015). Kipnis is the same as Belt, broke out in his 2nd full season (2013), had his 3rd interrupted by injury and broke out again in his 4th (2015). Dee Gordon broke out in his 3rd season (2014).
That is small sample size obviously, but then again, it is small sample size for the purposes of your analysis as well. It is fairly well established that experience has a direct relationship with performance. Wouldn’t it make more sense that breakout is tied to playing and service time rather than age? Perhaps the performance curve peak is occurring earlier and earlier because players are also debuting earlier and earlier. I’m not sure where one could even begin analyzing the same data within the framework of playing/service time, but I’d certainly like to see that data.
I obviously completely agree that “Age 27” has nothing to do with breakout, but that doesn’t necessarily make the original theory wrong. Age 27 just happened to coincide with when players were hitting their 2nd, 3rd and 4th years of consistent playing time and it is a lot easier to explain “Age 27” than service time.
Just some thoughts, would love to see someone smarter than me take a crack at the same analysis through the lens of playing time though.
I want to read a piece on batter v pitcher … I use it for fantasy as a kind of tiebreaker, in this limited way … I look for extremes, like, Sal Perez batting .500 in 30 career AB vs Verlander … I look to see if a batter has ever faced a pitcher … I occasionally look at a pitcher vs a team of batters to get a look at the overall picture of what he’s facing … I would never look at “Leake vs the As” because the As are a while different team from the last time Kershaw saw them, and the time before that! But if Billy Butler and Danny Valencia are both 0 for 8 against Leake I’ll register that.