It’s September, so innings limits, pitch limits, etc. tend to be a topic of discussion. Some teams are going the way of a six man rotation a la the Mets (well, until Matt Harvey gets shut down for the regular season) or moving starters to the bullpen such as the Nationals and Joe Ross. Regardless of the route teams decide to opt for, here are a few relievers who I suspect will get at least one or two starts in the final weeks.

Tyler Lyons, Cardinals — This is the first name that jumps to my mind when I think of RP/SP guys. He’s already made seven big league starts, and while the Cards aren’t set on a hard limit for Carlos Martinez, both he and Jaime Garcia would probably benefit from an occasional extra day or two of rest, or even a skipped start. Lyons is largely unowned, and is available in over 98 percent of CBS, ESPN and Yahoo! leagues. For someone who owns a 8.07 K/9 (20.2 percent) and a 4.39 FIP/3.91 xFIP in 100 1/3 innings career as a starter, he has uses in deep leagues where you’re looking for a win.
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A couple of weeks ago, I investigated Justin Verlander’s resurgence. I found reasons to validate his hot streak but turned up additional question marks along the way.

One of them was his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%). At 79.7 percent, it would have been the second-lowest of his career by several percentage points (despite not performing “at peak”). However, I realize now, unfortunately, that I must have encountered a glitch in the leaderboards — his Z-Contact% as of August 21 (because the post, despite running the same day as his Aug. 26 start, was published prior to it) was 85.7 percent.

Regardless, it got me thinking what affects a pitcher’s zone contact rate because it correlates very strongly with strikeout rate (R-squared = .594). User DoubleJ speculated about the metric via comment on one of last week’s posts:

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Agenda

1. Managing Innings
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Burnett, Asher, Coghlan, AJax
6. Factor Grid

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Episode 109 – The Non-Existent Twins Bullpen

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Steve Adams discuss Steve’s appearance as a guest host, Jedd Gyorko’s skills against lefties and positional eligibility, figuring out who is starting for the Phillies, Hector Olivera’s enigmatic potential, picking on Mike Pelfrey and the Twins, trying to choose between Stephen Strasburg and Jacob deGrom, shamelessly believing in Tom Koehler, and keeping an eye on Drew Hutchison.

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You know it’s late in the season when a Fantasy Baseball blogger can’t think of anything more constructive to do than recommend a Rockies pitcher. But stay with us for a moment, because we think we’re on to something.

More precisely, we think Mike Petriello, late of Fangraphs and dweller in stat Valhalla, was on to something six months ago. In early March of this year, a Denver Post article about Rockies’ starting pitcher Jorge de la Rosa caught his eye. As you no doubt know, Coors Field is a real tough place to pitch. And so it was for De La Rosa from 2008, when he joined the Rockies, through 2012. His home/road splits were big, though not really different from anyone else’s. Then, in 2013 and 2014, a very strange thing happened: De La Rosa was lights-out in Coors, but sub-mediocre everywhere else. Merge his 2013-2014 Coors stats and you have a Cy Young candidate: 29 starts, 20 Wins, 3 Losses, 2.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Merge his two-year stats on the road and you’re in Jeremy Guthrieland: 33 starts, 10 Wins, 14 Losses, 4.66 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Read the rest of this entry »

With a million players on every roster, sometimes it’s hard to predict exactly how the playing time will be allocated. So as usual, my choices could end up being lucky to find 10 at-bats over the next week or prove to be a nice injury replacement.

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Sixteen years ago today Sony Sega launched the Dreamcast console in North America. It sported a 56k dial up modem for my very first taste of online gaming. Sure it was laggy and pretty terrible, yet it was still a landmark event in video game history nonetheless.

On today’s agenda:
1. Bad news for a pair of Yankees
2. Marcus Stroman to return Saturday
3. Welcome back, Corey Dickerson
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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• Rough night for the Nationals pen against the Mets. With a six run lead in the seventh, Blake Treinen, Felipe Rivero and Drew Storen walked six batters, allowing six earned runs to blow the lead. In the next inning Jonathan Papelbon gave up the go-ahead homer to Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Jeurys Familia wasn’t perfect allowing a few baserunners but held on for his 38th save of the season. The Mets have done a nice job with their in-season additions this year and it’s no different with the bullpen where Addison Reed (two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh) and Tyler Clippard (two strikeouts in a perfect eighth) have helped strengthen the bridge to Jeurys.

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Episode 274

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about Josh Tomlin, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly, J.A. Happ, Ian Kennedy, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Corey Seager before getting into their topic of the day: top 10 SPs for 2016. Any glaring omissions from either top 10? Feel free to put your top 10 in the comments.

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• I better give my two cents on the Matt Harvey situation. In my opinion, there should not have been any big blow up on his innings limit this past weekend. Both sides should have gotten together before the season and discussed how Harvey should be handled in case the Mets make the post season. The general outline of this agreement should have then been made public so everyone has an idea of what is going on. This discussion should not be happening now in early September, but when the season started. The Mets, Harvey, and Boras created this mess and now they need to figure it out. Anyone who wants to point fingers needs to do so at all parties.

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