The Daily Grind: Shields, Burnett, Asher

Agenda

  1. Managing Innings
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Burnett, Asher, Coghlan, AJax
  6. Factor Grid

1. Managing Innings

It’s a little late for you to learn how to manage your innings this season. However, you can still micro them to the fullest extent over the next few weeks. The first thing to determine is where you sit relative to your league cap. If you’re 100 innings behind pace, figure out how to stream one to two pitchers a day. If you’re well over-pace, exchange your most ordinary starters for top relievers. Trevor May, Drew Pomeranz, and Keone Kela are among the lightly owned relievers who could snag a save or three down the stretch.

If you’re right on pace, you have some options. I would still stream starters while mixing in relievers on shallow days. Look for relievers who haven’t pitched in a couple days. On platforms that allow an innings hack (like Yahoo), it can be advantageous to finish early. If I reach 1496 innings on September 27, I have a week to decide which day is best for adding nine starters.

I’ll write more about the innings hack near the end of the season.

2. Daily DFS – Shields

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Oh, hello there Jon Lester and Carlos Martinez. We can’t use you today. Not that we could afford you.

Late: Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg are the biggest names of the evening. Unfortunately, they will battle each other for the victory. James Shields might be my favorite pitcher of the day. He’s opposed by the Rockies at Petco Park. The Rockies offense powers down when on the road. Do be aware, Shields has struggled with command recently (17 walks in last 30 innings). He’s been good for over a strikeout per inning.

I’m not thrilled with the alternatives today. Julio Teheran is worth a sniff against the Phillies. Teheran is kind of like a Chris Tillman in that he could have an excellent outing against anyone. He probably won’t, but at least there’s a possibility.

Ariel Pena costs $5,000 for his debut. I usually would not recommend using a guy like Pena, but there is a small chance for a good outcome on the cheap. He’s opposed by the lowly Marlins. Pick Pena only if you feel very strongly about several top hitters. They’ll need to carry you.

Stack Targets: CC Sabathia, David Buchanan, Kyle Lobstein, Drew Hutchison, J.A. Happ, Keyvius Sampson, Pena, Tom Koehler, Josh Tomlin, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Pelfrey, Kris Medlen, Chris Rusin, Zack Godley, Aaron Brooks, Martin Perez

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

As usual, my favorites:

Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, David Ortiz v Drew Hutchison
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Jake Odorizzi
Adam LaRoche, Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu v Josh Tomlin
Ryan Howard, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera v Julio Teheran
Chris Colabello, Jose Bautista v Joe Kelly
Logan Forsythe v Kyle Lobstein
Jedd Gyorko v Chris Rusin
Franklin Gutierrez v Martin Perez
George Springer, Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa v Aaron Brooks

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: SaberSim likes Sabathia (11 FD points) and dislikes Ubaldo Jimenez (8 FD points). I assume this is a “feature” derived from multi-year regression. In this case, it’s led the projections astray. Sabathia is returning somewhat hastily from a nagging knee injury. I’d bet that he isn’t pain free. More importantly, he’s dogpooey at pitching. Jimenez isn’t a stud either, but he’s at least as likely to win as Sabathia.

Right: SaberSim agrees with my assessment of Shields today. He’s the highest rated pitcher. Maybe I need swap out Bautista so I can roster him. Teheran is also highly rated at fifth overall. Now that seems a little bullish…

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Burnett, Asher, Coghlan, AJax

Pitchers to Start: It’s a thin slate and a pitching heavy day. A.J. Burnett will return to action after missing all of August with an elbow injury. Expect Burnett to be used carefully. The Pirates would undoubtedly like him to be fully healthy for the postseason. Burnett’s 3.06 ERA is solid, and 18 of the 46 earned runs he allowed came in his last three starts. If he’s healthy again, he could be a good play at PNC Park against the Brewers.

Also consider: Derek Holland, Jorge de la Rosa, Luis Severino, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia

Pitchers to Exploit: Alec Asher is easily the worst pitcher on the bump tomorrow. He’s opposed by the volatile Cubs and Jake Arrieta. The last time these two teams met, the Cubs were held hitless against Cole Hamels. Surprisingly, I don’t think Asher will follow suit.

Also consider: Alfredo Simon, John Lamb

Hitters (power): Chris Coghlan is a player on the Cubs. Therefore he will face Asher. He also usually bats third these days.

Also consider: Stephen Piscotty, Michael Conforto, Hector Olivera, Miguel Montero, Jedd Gyorko, Franklin Gutierrez (if healthy)

Hitters (speed): Austin Jackson is a player on the Cubs. Therefore, he will face Asher. He also usually bats first or second these days.

Also consider: Jace Peterson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

A couple storm risks today.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by mLife. What the balls is mLife anyway?





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