Archive for September, 2015

Bullpen Report, Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tonight’s bullpen report is going to be a wrap up of the last two nights of action.

Freddy Galvis bombed one off of Jonathon Papelbon on Monday night, and for all the vitriol spewed at Papelbon, it was only his first blown save of the year. It put him in line for the win, which he got when the Nats pushed one across in the 11th inning. Doug Fister, yes, Doug Fister, picked up the first save of his career. It was his first outing in 13 days. He’s not cracking the grid at this point.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 9/15/2015 – Streaming for HRs, SBs, and Ks

Episode 277

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

IF YOU DOWNLOADED BEFORE 5:40 CENTRAL TIME ON 9/15, PLEASE RE-DOWNLOAD THE NEW, FULL VERSION.

THE PREVIOUS VERSION CUTS OFF AT 5-6 MINUTES. 

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some possible options for late-season streaming to acquire HRs, SBs, and Ks. Names include Mark Canha, Khris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Carl Crawford, Jean Segura, Raisel Iglesias, and Taylor Jungmann plus many more.

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The Change: Pitchers Who Hang Them

We may not have found a way to measure hanging breaking balls today, but one table in particular caught my eye as being maybe useful for fantasy players. On this table, you’ll see the curveballs with the biggest range in movement with a few outcome stats included. If we sort through this list mentally, it seems possible to find our hanging curveballs.

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Remembering April’s Pitching Standouts

Remember April?

How crazy was that month? It seems like ages ago at this point.

It was a month during which Chris Sale had a remarkably misleading 5.32 ERA. Sale was at 2.37 through the first three starts of the season’s opening month before the Twins rocked him for 8 ER in just 3 IP of work. That seemed especially preposterous at the time given the opposition, but now the Twins sit just a game out of the second wildcard spot and while it’s always jarring to see Sale rocked, the Twins being the ones who inflicted the damage isn’t as much of a shock as they’ve now done it multiple times to Sale.

There were also several guys pitching out of their minds in April and as we do in every April likely as a response to a winter without baseball, we got overly excited about some of the performances because they were all we had on the 2015 season. Sure, some guys post a mid-2.00s ERA in April and it’s a harbinger of a Cy Young-level season, but most are just having their best month – a month we wouldn’t notice if it had been June or August.

April gets us drunk on the potential of five more months at this new level. Today, we’re going to look back at five surprise pitching standouts from the month and see how things have gone since the fast start.

Nick Martinez, TEX

April: 0.35 ERA in 26 IP

Since: 5.08 ERA in 95.7 IP

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Quick Looks: Nola, Davies, and Lamb

I will use player grading on the scouting scales of 20-80. I will use Kiley McDaniels scale he discussed in this article.

Grade Hitter Starting Pitcher Relief Pitcher WAR
80 Top 1-2 #1 Starter —- 7
75 Top 2-3 #1 —- 6
70 Top 5 #1/2 —- 5
65 All-Star #2/3 —- 4
60 Plus #3 High Closer 3
55 Above Avg #3/4 Mid Closer 2.5
50 Avg Regular #4 Low CL/High SU 2
45 Platoon/Util #5 Low Setup 1.5
40 Bench Swing/Spot SP Middle RP 1
35 Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up Emergency Call-Up 0
30 *Organizational *Organizational *Organizational -1

I will give a value for where I think the pitcher could currently fit in on the average team (CV=current value) and where they could end up (FV=future value). I am sure I will disagree with some grades from others, but I am only looking at one game.

Note: If I say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.

Aaron Nola (CV: 60/FV: 70)
8/23/15 vs Marlins

Game Thoughts

• The 22-year-old righty had a slightly funky delivery. He threw from a low 3/4 release across his body, which is a little unusual for a right-handed pitcher. Additionally, he had a little late leg lift which may be a little distracting for the hitter.
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NL OF: Deep, Deeeeep Finds for Your Playoffs

Disclaimer: Yesterday, the author wrote the words organized below. This morning, a doctor person surgically repaired the author’s faulty body. During the day, he will rest in bed, likely incapacitated, lest he be tempted to incoherently, and probably embarrassingly, address your comments. He apologizes for the inconvenience this delay in correspondence may cause.

* * *

Unless you’re in a year-long roto league — or, wait, are there year-long points leagues? Is that a thing? — you’re probably neck deep in playoffs. Maybe some of you are vying for the championship. Maybe some of you are trying to avoid last place and a sexy calendar photoshoot as punishment for it, as I just successfully did last week.

The RotoGraphs staff has published several pieces recently focusing on waiver wire finds to help your playoff push. For roto leagues specifically, we’ve reached a point where a couple weeks’ worth of standard performance may not affect runs, runs batted in (RBI) or batting average, but a sudden burst of home runs of stolen bases can make all the difference.

After digging through the scrap heap, I found yet more players (strictly National League outfielders, mind you) that can help owners trying to catch lightning in a bottle. However, some the following names could also help in shallower leagues and are worth keeping in mind as dynasty or keeper considerations.

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RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 9/15/2015

Episode 113 – It Definitely Hooks Me

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss the end of Brad’s baseball season, Dylan gloating about his picks on Monday, crafting a lineup “Chone Figgins style,” Robinson Cano playing hurt, Miguel Sano being a top power producer already, running on Jon Lester, the sadness of dropping Troy Tulowitzki for Eugenio Suarez, J.A. Happ getting the Pirates pitcher boost, and Dylan being insane for considering Julio Teheran against the Blue Jays.

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The Daily Grind: Happ, Anderson, Werth

Agenda

  1. First Base Dynasty
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Favs
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Johnson, Wright, Werth, Tomlinson
  6. Factor Grid

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Erik Johnson & Kelby Tomlinson: Deep League Wire

How do you mark the beginning of autumn? You have your choice: Labor Day has come and gone, football season is upon us and the Jewish calendar has already ushered in a new year. And the air is already starting to feel a bit chillier here in the northeast.

But we know the real indicator: it’s fantasy playoff time. Forget the sleepers, the stashers, the upside plays, the aching bodies recuperating on the injured reserve; all we care about now is who is available in deep leagues who can help the cause. Good thing we have two candidates available in a plethora of formats who fit that job description.

As usual, the players listed in this space are typically better suited for mono leagues, and the ownership percentages are by way of CBS.
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I Smell a Rougned Odor

…and it is delightful. Coming up with a topic to write about with only a couple of weeks left in the season is tough. So in the search for an idea, I fall back on my typical activity — leaderboard sorting! Though I routinely shake my head at any analysis that includes monthly or half-season splits, the performance numbers over those time periods aren’t always meaningless. Just the vast majority of the time they are. And since the vast majority isn’t quite 100%, I decided to check on the ISO leaders in the second half of the season, hoping to find a surprising name near the top. Sure enough, I found him sitting at sixteen. His name is Rougned Odor and he smells wonderful.

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