I Smell a Rougned Odor

…and it is delightful. Coming up with a topic to write about with only a couple of weeks left in the season is tough. So in the search for an idea, I fall back on my typical activity — leaderboard sorting! Though I routinely shake my head at any analysis that includes monthly or half-season splits, the performance numbers over those time periods aren’t always meaningless. Just the vast majority of the time they are. And since the vast majority isn’t quite 100%, I decided to check on the ISO leaders in the second half of the season, hoping to find a surprising name near the top. Sure enough, I found him sitting at sixteen. His name is Rougned Odor and he smells wonderful.

In the second half, Odor’s .258 ISO ranks sixteenth in baseball, which fueled a .374 wOBA, all from the second base position. If you recall, Odor didn’t begin the season in a positive way. In fact, he was so bad, he played himself out of a starting job in early May, eventually getting demoted to Triple-A on May 11. At that time, he had posted a pitiful .229 wOBA, displayed Juan Pierre-like power, struck out too frequently, and wasn’t too keen on taking a free pass.

So down to the farm he went, where the light bulb was apparently plugged back in. His power returned, he doubled his walk rate, halved his strikeout rate and his balls in play were falling for hits at a high rate. By the middle of June, the Rangers had seen enough of his minor league fireworks and decided it was time to give him his next chance. He played his first game upon his recall on June 15 and has probably been the best offensive second baseman in baseball since (though I don’t know without being able to search for specific date ranges for all second basemen).

Over 288 plate appearances since being brought back up, he has posted a .240 ISO, .383 wOBA and has cut down on his strikeout rate. His 12 homers extrapolates to 25 over a full season of 600 plate appearances, a total that only Brian Dozier has surpassed this year and no other second baseman will come close to reaching. Though the sample size is tiny during his time before his demotion, his batted ball distance sat at just 264 feet. Since his recall, that distance has surged 14 feet to 278 feet. It’s not a mind blowing jump, but a move from the bottom of the distance leaderboards to right around the league average is noteworthy. And right now, his HR/FB rate is at exactly that league average mark.

Though power is clearly Odor’s calling card at the moment, he isn’t completely devoid of speed. He has stolen as many as 32 bases in the minors (back in 2013) and has eight this year combining his Majors and minors totals. But the issue here isn’t a lack of speed, it’s just poor base stealing technique. Or at least it appears that way given his poor success rate. That flaw will either result in a permanent red light or provide upside if he improves his skill and not only runs more successfully in the future, but that success leads to more attempts.

It’s a rather easy call that Odor’s name is going to top many sleeper lists heading into next year’s draft season. Though given underwhelming counting stats due to his time in the minors, he might remain cheap in more casual leagues. His batted ball distance suggests there isn’t huge power upside at the moment and he still needs to improve his plate patience. Plus, his stolen base potential remains a question mark. It will be interesting to see how highly valued he ends up being.