The Daily Grind: Happ, Anderson, Werth

Agenda

  1. First Base Dynasty
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Favs
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Johnson, Wright, Werth, Tomlinson
  6. Factor Grid

1. First Base Dynasty

I don’t often link to my work on other sites. Sometimes I’ll mention it, but I figure the overlords here at RotoGraphs would not be pleased with me sending you to another fantasy service. I’m going to make an exception today.

Over at RotoBaller, I’ve started a dynasty prospects series. Once the offseason rolls around, a version of this will migrate here with an ottoneu focus (that’s also why I figure it’s ok to mention this now). Week one covers first base with nine write ups and 16 other players to watch.

Here’s the thing – I’m not Kiley McDaniel. I have some skill at parsing scouting reports and reading stat pages with an eye towards future production, but I’m not bringing anything unique to the table in my analysis. In particular, my methodology for finding players was flawed. I’d like your help to locate the guys who have fallen through the cracks.

I looked for players with age appropriate production at High-A through Triple-A. I also mined the first few rounds of recent drafts and checked which players were owned in my 20 team by 48 player dynasty (we can own anybody in any league, even Cuba and Korea). I found that international prospects were the hardest to track down. I’m sure I’m missing some Cubans and Dominicans and Venezuelans.

So, if you’ve an eye for this stuff, take a gander at my first base dynasty analysis. Maybe you’ll learn a thing or two about a prospect. Maybe you’ll want to yell at me for ranking Casey Gillaspie 10th. And maybe you know a name I missed. Please do let me know (comment here).

2. Daily DFS – Happ, BAnderson, Kelly

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The first game of the Cubs-Pirates doubleheader is early. That’s all. C’est tout. No Jason Hammel or Gerrit Cole for us.

Late: We have the usual assortment of aces on display tonight, and two of them have fantastic matchups. Jacob deGrom is opposed by the Marlins while Stephen Strasburg will draw the Phillies. Others to consider include Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Carlos Martinez. Do note, the Cardinals appear to be managing Martinez’s innings. I’d pass on him.

J.A. Happ will draw attention tonight as the hot hand. He costs $7,700 on FanDuel. Happ has dominated since joining the Pirates, and Jeff Sullivan recently picked out a few reasons why. His strikeout, whiff, and walk rates have all improved in Pittsburgh. Part of it is matchup related. Tonight’s start against the Cubs could prove challenging. They’re the only team to score more than two runs against Happ since he joined the division. We also know that they tend to strike out at prodigious rates.

Yesterday, we talked about Brett Anderson’s favorable matchup against the Rockies. I still love it, and he costs just $7,200. He left his last start with a calf cramp. Even if he’s healthy, he doesn’t consistently crack double digit production on FanDuel.

Another hot hand, Joe Kelly, has scored between 12.33 and 15 FanDuel points in each of his last seven starts. That includes games against the Tigers and Blue Jays. For $6,800, he could be a fine investment against the Orioles. I hate the matchup, but there’s always been a glimmer of ace-like potential to Kelly.

Stack Targets: David Buchanan, Tom Koehler, Ariel Pena, Alfredo Simon, Phil Hughes, Jhoulys Chaci, Nick Tropeano, Chris Rusin, John Lamb

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Look here:

Adam LaRoche, Jose Abreu v Aaron Brooks
Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Francisco Cervelli v Jason Hammel
Jayson Werth v David Buchanan
Chris Heisey v Chris Rusin
Alex Rodriguez v Jake Odorizzi
Salvador Perez v Josh Tomlin
Ben Revere v Julio Teheran
James McCann, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez v Phil Hughes

4. SaberSim Favs

I won’t argue against Strasburg as the top starter today. It’s hard to imagine he won’t earn the victory against Buchanan. Unsurprisingly, Bryce Harper is the top hitter of the day. Jayson Werth is number nine. SaberSim also loves left-handed Royals against Josh Tomlin at Progressive Field. I agree. I’m very much a Tomlin fan, but he is homer prone.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Johnson, Wright, Werth, Tomlinson

Pitchers to Start: Erik Johnson has some sneaky keeper potential in the right format. He’s recovered the velocity and stuff that made him mildly effective in 2013. He walks too many hitters in the majors, but he hasn’t shown those issues in the minors. He’s opposed by the A’s at homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Before you get too excited about his 3.27 ERA, watch out for the 7.60 FIP and 5.14 xFIP.

Also consider: Luis Severino, Jesse Chavez, Robbie Ray

Pitchers to Exploit: Mike Wright started out strong with 14.1 shutout innings. Since then, he’s allowed 24 runs, 35 hits, and 11 walks in 25.1 innings. Woof. If I were to pick a potential Collin McHugh-like breakout candidate, Wright would be on the short list. However, I don’t anticipate his start against the Red Sox going well.

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Adam Conley, Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Jorge de la Rosa, Alex Wood, Michael Lorenzen, Jake Peavy

Hitters (power): After last night’s power outburst, I figure this is my last opportunity to mention Jayson Werth. He’s up to 46 percent owned, and he’ll face Morgan tomorrow. It’s an excellent matchup at his old stomping grounds.

Also consider: Eugenio Suarez, Wilin Rosario, Dustin Garneau, Scott Van Slyke, Justin Turner, Seth Smith, Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Juan Uribe, Jonathan Schoop

Hitters (speed): With Joe Panik now done for the season, Kelby Tomlinson is once again an every day option. He’s a solid, high BABIP hitter with decent base running potential. He could grab another five bags in the last couple weeks as he tried to solidify a role in 2016.

Also consider: Brandon Barnes, Anthony Gose

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It’s another no-rain day. Huzzah.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 

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Tom
Guest
Tom

FYI Josh Harrison and Francisco Cervelli are not in the lineup vs. Hammel. Presumably they will be playing in the night-game vs. Lester

KB
Guest
KB

Neither is Marte. H2H playoffs and I have to decide whether I trust he will be in GM 2 or not… I hate H2H playoffs.

Buctober
Guest
Buctober

Marte will be reportedly available off the bench for game 1 and is penciled in to start game 2

Tom
Guest
Tom

I only mentioned Harrison and Cervelli b/c they are mentioned above as good guys to play today.

KB
Guest
KB

Thank you, Buc.