Episode 84 – Forsythe’s Withes

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Twitter input from regular listeners, Dylan dropping the ball on a trick question, Matt suggesting a mystery third baseman, getting creative with middle infield positions, trying to look ahead through Nelson Cruz’s continued hot streak, utilizing the mediocre Giants outfielders, Dylan stumbling through double negatives, warning against dropping Lance McCullers, and predicting the strikeouts tallied by Dan Haren and Jeff Locke in their matchup.

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Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Castellanos
2. Daily DFS – Anderson, Severino
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Ross, Lorenzen, Young, Rusney
5. Factor Grid

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For a change, it’s no longer about injuries! As we hit the final two months of the season, teams who are already throwing in the towel on a playoff run are looking to the future. That means reducing the playing time of disappointing veterans and giving the youngsters a shot.

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The official Deadpool red band trailer (warning: language, violence, adult themes…it’s an R rated film for these reasons) dropped last night — as did the green band if you need something slightly more appropriate — and it has successfully gotten my hopes up.

On today’s agenda:
1. Freddie Freeman’s oblique strain
2. Quick thoughts on Henry Owens‘ debut
3. Michael Pineda update
3. Streaming Pitching Options
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• Some brilliant loyal readers and Twins fans called to my attention Trevor May’s recent bullpen usage on last night’s post, so I’ve added him to the grid below, replacing Casey Fien. May has some solid pedigree and if he moves to relief fulltime, his role could continue grow in the Twins bullpen. May’s ERA has been better in 11.2 innings out of the pen compared to his time in the rotation but his wOBA against and defensive independent pitching statistics are essentially the same. Either way, I’m placing May above Fien for the time being. I would still expect newly acquired Kevin Jepsen to see the ninth over May if something were to happen to Perkins, even if May is a more likely long term candidate.

• Carson Smith was less than stellar again last night and he’s now allowed runs in four of his last five outings. Fernando Rodney has been a disaster all year but Smith can’t continue to pitch like this with no consequence to his role on the team. It’s still his job but I’ve placed Smith under code red, a situation very familiar to Seattle’s line on the grid this year.

• Everyone expected the Blue Jays to be players for Jonathan Papelbon at the deadline, but instead of replacing Osuna they simply beefed up their bullpen depth with Mark Lowe. Early returns suggests that it was the right move as Osuna’s continued his excellent play, pitching a scoreless ninth tonight for his 8th save on the year. At only 20 years of age, Osuna is pitching to a 2.22/2.51/3.43 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line with 53 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. The Blue Jays might have something special in the ninth here and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Osuna take a leap next year into a top tier closer.

• Ken Giles might not still be closing on the next great Phillies team but he’s closing now and doing a nice job. Who knew pitchers don’t just crumble once they start an inning in the ninth and not the eighth? Giles actually earned a rare four-out save tonight, closing the door on the Dodgers for his third save on the year. Also, speaking of future top tier closers – a full season out of Giles with saves and not just holds could make him a top fantasy option next year, albeit with likely less save totals on the Phillies.

• Quick Hits: If Maryland does crab cakes then Aroldis Chapman does perfect innings with multiple strikeouts as he had two whiffs tonight en route to save number 23. Steve Cishek threw a scoreless inning in a losing effort and has been pitching well of late. If something were to happen to Trevor Rosenthal, Cishek could be part of a Kevin Siegrist platoon for saves. Drew Storen is probably still peeved that the Nationals brought in Papelbon but at least he vultured a win tonight, his second of the year. Meanwhile, Papelbon saved the game for his 19th this season.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Episode 260

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss a pair of rookie arms who had vastly different starts on Monday night, then dive into Eno’s Tuesday piece before heading to the other end of the spectrum and talking about some more established pitchers who are on the rise after a rough start including Chris Tillman, Gio Gonzalez, R.A. Dickey, and Matt Shoemaker.

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Edit (12:59 pm EDT): Left out a bunch of dudes (Cespedes, Pederson, Moss) and wrongly included a bunch of dudes (Gomez, Revere). I basically I forgot all about the trade deadline, so if notice another name omitted, leave it in the comments. Thanks (and sorry)!

NL OF Tiers: July
NL OF Tiers: June
NL OF Tiers: May
NL OF Tiers: Preseason

Prior to writing for FanGraphs, I never took time to systematically reevaluate players. That’s not to say I never evaluate players after draft day — of course I do. But I typically only concern myself with the players I own and compare them to those on waivers. Occasionally, if my team is wildly imbalanced, I’ll evaluate other owners’ players for potential trades.

Because it’s tedious to thoroughly re-rank all the players at one position, let alone in all of Major League Baseball. I can’t complain, though, becauseI’ve learned something new with every re-rank, the most prominent lesson being baseball players exist to humiliate you. I’m being hyperbolic, and perhaps Carlos Gonzalez is, too, but his recent results speak volumes: CarGo more than doubled his home run total between my July re-rank of National League outfielders and now.

I also learned I need to learn to stand my ground. After mindlessly over-ranking Carlos Gomez in June, I slotted him at the top of the fourth tier (roughly 20th overall) in July. I got slammed for it and I backpedaled on my stance a bit when responding to comments, but, like clockwork, Gomez has continued to underwhelm, hitting .230/.373/.410 with two home runs and nary a stolen base. Sure, the 17.3-percent walk rate (BB%) the last 30 days is nice, and it brings him back up to normal Carlos Gomez levels, but his batted ball profile continues to resemble the generally uninteresting pre-breakout Carlos Gomez.

Anyway, iers will conform to my ranking of feature-length films directed by Hayao Miyazaki, with emphases on directed and feature-length. To not see a Miyazaki (or Studio Ghibli) film is to ignore a cherished corner of cinematic history. Like my hotly contested Coen Brothers tiers, these will be very difficult for me to rank.

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Episode 83 – Not Much Explanation Needed

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss user error, Mark Teixeira’s resurgence, a pitcher-heavy DFS day, Ketel Marte being quickly trusted in center field, the Marlins’ inability to hit lefties, being nervous about Marco Estrada (still), and Eddie Butler being a reason not to be too confident about pitching prospects.

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Agenda

1. Second Base Doom
2. Daily DFS – Owens
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Rodon, Conforto, Cesar
5. Factor Grid

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Rookie hitters are performing better this year than they ever have in the free agency era. Right now, rookie non-pitchers have a 93 weighted runs created plus, one better than in the second-best year for rookie hitters (2006). That’s also impressive because there are only four years in which rookies have managed a wRC+ over 90.

We spend so much time drooling over rookies that this might be a sobering result. The best rookie class of all time is still 7% worse than league average with the stick. You *could* use this to argue that rookies are a bad scene in redraft leagues.

Of course, that number is an overall number. If you focus on the rookies that have done well, they were almost all well-regarded, right?

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