NL Outfield Tiered Rankings: August
Edit (12:59 pm EDT): Left out a bunch of dudes (Cespedes, Pederson, Moss) and wrongly included a bunch of dudes (Gomez, Revere). I basically I forgot all about the trade deadline, so if notice another name omitted, leave it in the comments. Thanks (and sorry)!
NL OF Tiers: July
NL OF Tiers: June
NL OF Tiers: May
NL OF Tiers: Preseason
Prior to writing for FanGraphs, I never took time to systematically reevaluate players. That’s not to say I never evaluate players after draft day — of course I do. But I typically only concern myself with the players I own and compare them to those on waivers. Occasionally, if my team is wildly imbalanced, I’ll evaluate other owners’ players for potential trades.
Because it’s tedious to thoroughly re-rank all the players at one position, let alone in all of Major League Baseball. I can’t complain, though, becauseI’ve learned something new with every re-rank, the most prominent lesson being baseball players exist to humiliate you. I’m being hyperbolic, and perhaps Carlos Gonzalez is, too, but his recent results speak volumes: CarGo more than doubled his home run total between my July re-rank of National League outfielders and now.
I also learned I need to learn to stand my ground. After mindlessly over-ranking Carlos Gomez in June, I slotted him at the top of the fourth tier (roughly 20th overall) in July. I got slammed for it and I backpedaled on my stance a bit when responding to comments, but, like clockwork, Gomez has continued to underwhelm, hitting .230/.373/.410 with two home runs and nary a stolen base. Sure, the 17.3-percent walk rate (BB%) the last 30 days is nice, and it brings him back up to normal Carlos Gomez levels, but his batted ball profile continues to resemble the generally uninteresting pre-breakout Carlos Gomez.
Anyway, iers will conform to my ranking of feature-length films directed by Hayao Miyazaki, with emphases on directed and feature-length. To not see a Miyazaki (or Studio Ghibli) film is to ignore a cherished corner of cinematic history. Like my hotly contested Coen Brothers tiers, these will be very difficult for me to rank.
Spirited Away
Bryce Harper
Spirited Away seems too easy, too obvious, to be a No. 1 pick. The fact of the matter is it’s masterfully written and animated, and I never grow tired of watching (or listening to) it. Kind of like Harper, who, given the season he’s having, is practically an animated character himself.
Princess Mononoke
Ryan Braun
Justin Upton
Charlie Blackmon
A.J. Pollock
Starling Marte
Billy Hamilton
The second tier remains constant. I only drop Upton and Blackmon into a lower tier because I’ve rolled with six tiers all along, and they are more similar to the names currently surrounding them than Harper. Braun gets a slight bump — he’s not hotly-contested-MVP-caliber Braun, but he has certainly rebounded from last year. Oh, and I still don’t know how to rank Hamilton.
Kiki’s Delivery Service
Yoenis Cespedes … is now on the Mets
Joc Pederson
Curtis Granderson
Jay Bruce
Jason Heyward
Andrew McCutchen
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Cameron Maybin
Dexter Fowler
Again, not much has changed. Gonzalez punished baseballs in July but may have over-regressed. It doesn’t take a genius to know he can’t sustain his recent pace, but his batted ball profile suggests he can’t sustain his season pace, either. I think he may flirt with 30 home runs — if he stays healthy (FOR ONCE!). Kemp’s power output finally corresponds with a batted ball profile that was pretty strong all season, and he’s suddenly putting together a decent season. Relative to draft day expectations, however, he has generally disappointed. Granderson and Bruce get a bump — they hit balls hard, and the occasional stolen base is always welcome.
Howl’s Moving Castle
Carlos Gomez … is now on the Astros
Hunter Pence
Jayson Werth
Yasiel Puig
Gregory Polanco
Randal Grichuk
Marlon Byrd
Brandon Moss … is now on the Cardinals
Ben Revere … is now on the Blue Jays
David Peralta
Chris Coghlan
Gerardo Parra … is now on the Orioles
Michael Taylor
Khris Davis
Denard Span (DL: early August)
Just as I struggled to choose Kiki’s Delivery Service over Howl’s Moving Castle, I struggled to divide into two tiers a large group of hitters with similar offensive outputs (in terms of total value). Pence, Werth, Puig, Polanco, Grichuk, Byrd, Davis and Revere will all contribute to either home runs or stolen bases but not really the other. Despite his struggles, Polanco continues to hold his own, and 30 stolen bases with a .240 batting average is nohing to sneeze at.
Grichuk has quickly established himself as an offensive force, but the .382 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) makes me nervous. Still, he could reach 20 home runs by season’s end, so I may have underrated him. He looks like a Joc Pederson who doesn’t walk. I’m bullish on Davis due to his newfound playing time and power potential, but I’d rather own Michael Taylor, who is toolsy as hell but also a batting average liability if there ever was one.
I will gladly eat my words when Gomez feeds them to me, but until then…
The Wind Rises
Giancarlo Stanton (DL: late August?)
Nori Aoki
Ender Inciarte
Yasmany Tomas
Christian Yelich
Will Venable
Nick Markakis
Jorge Soler
Andre Ethier
Odubel Herrera
Kelly Johnson
Juan Lagares
Gregor Blanco
Jeff Francoeur
Once more, not a lot of change. Stanton’s recovery progresses more slowly than expected, so I have a poor gauge on his rest-of-season contributions. Yelich has flashed more power recently but his ground ball tendencies make me reluctant to trust him for any more. Markakis provides the most robust production for the emptiest stat line. Francoeur (whose name I tried spelling about eight different ways while writing this) is hitting balls 1) hard and 2) in the air, validating his modest power display. He’s somewhat of a walking punchline, but hey, maybe he’s helpful in a one o’ them deep leagues.
My Neighbor Totoro
Wil Myers (DL: late August?)
Angel Pagan
Justin Maxwell
Ichiro Suzuki
Scott Van Slyke
Alex Guerrero
Marcell Ozuna (AAA)
Peter Bourjos
Michael Morse
Carl Crawford
Cody Asche
Drew Stubbs
Domonic Brown
Corey Dickerson (DL: unknown)
Matt Holliday (DL: unknown)
Michael Cuddyer (DL: unknown)
Injured hitters and part-timers galore. I typically make clear that most tiers are fluid — that is, hitters can be moved up or down a couple of spots — but Ozuna is a very deliberate placement. I think I would rather stash him than own any of the players listed below him. Van Slyke and Guerrero and technically stashes, too, except in the deepest leagues. Dickerson, Holliday and Cuddyer have no concrete timetables for return.
Notes:
- Someone suggested Ben Paulsen deserves to be ranked. I concur, but not as an outfielder — he primarily plays first base, and FanGraphs ranks him as such.
- I’ve never seen Castle in the Sky, and I’m liable to re-watch Nausicaä of the Valley of the Wind and Porco Rosso.
- Let’s civilly discuss, or uninhibitedly argue, with one another in the comments!
Hate to be That Guy, but Gomez is in the AL now…
Totally forgot that the trade deadline happened and stuff.
Gerardo Parra is now a member of the baseball club in Baltimore
Good call with Spirited Away at the top. It’s tempting to try to rank something else #1, but Spirited Away is a perfect film. I’d probably bump Totoro up to #3 and Porco Rosso in the top 5, but otherwise, nice ranking. Also, Ponyo is deservedly left out entirely.
I need to re-watch Porco Rosso. Also, Ponyo is not very good. If people like it a lot, I don’t really get why.
Same for Revere.
Thanks!
Cutch has to be a mistake, right?
Why? Let’s talk about it!
He’s just about on pace for his usual HR totals, lagging in SB, still an OBP machine, the Pirate’s offense is still pretty good and he’s got quality R/RBI totals. Furthermore he’s exhibiting a BABIP ~30 points below his previous 3-year average, and his overall numbers are suppressed by a poor Mar/Apr (82 wRC+) from which he’s completely rebounded (174/161/152 May/Jun/Jul).
Oh, and he’s got a track record as an MVP, all-star, and one of the most talented offensive players in the game. But no, he’s not as good as AJ Pollock, who has more steals but less R+RBI and lower SLG/TB.
For everything that pudieron89 has said and the fact that hes a much better fantasy player than Joc, Curtis, JAY BRUCE, billy hamilton, and jason heyward. You would turn down someone offering you Cutch for any of those players?
But i would love to hear your reasoning. Thanks and besides that great list!
Tend to agree with Alex here. He’s a heckuva ballplayer, he’s just not fantasy elite anymore. Cutch’s batted ball exit velo is mediocre and his hard hit% is low for him. I applaud your ability to set aside name value and look at present results, AC. Without the steals, he’s now only very good. Which is nice.
I absolutely concur with these guys. Cutch is still the 2nd best OF in the NL. Marte might be better than Cutch at fielding and SB but Cutch has him beat in everything. If anything Cutch is at the top of the that second tier.
Cutch in every league that im in and even the fangraphs ottoneu league is an easy top 10 OFer. In the fangraphs league he is 5 behind only Harper in the NL. While the drop in SB is obviosuly less than ideal he more than makes up for it with AVG, XBH, BBs and R/RBIs.
Also, aren’t these rankings specifically for 5×5 roto? That’s what I seem to remember from the start of the rankings at the beginning of the season. I completely agree that in other formats he becomes much more valuable.
Have to agree with the Pro-Cutch crowd here. You are knocking him down too far just because he stopped stealing bags. Yeah, that sucks, but he’s still awesome in the triple slash categories (especially OBP), has a nice R+RBI total and is gonna hit his usual 20ish HR.
One guy you have ahead of him is Justin Upton. Why? Because he swiped a dozen more bags than Cutch? His BA and OBP leave a lot to be desired, he lags behind Cutch in R+RBI and has chipped in 3 more HR for all of that sacrifice in average.
Hamilton in Tier 2 is laughable. Especially in a Rotisserie league. In a weekly league, yeah, he will single handedly win your SB category every week. Over a full season, I’ll gladly try to make up the steals with other guys and don’t have to put up with a 227/271/288 slash in the process (UGH!!)
Granderson, Bruce, Heyward, Maybin, Fowler all in the same class as McCutchen?! Have you ever played in a league where someone would trade those guys straight up for McCutchen? Come on….
pudieron89 — I know xBABIP isn’t the end-all, be-all, but the equation pegs Cutch for a .322 BABIP, suggesting he’s right where he should be. A lot of that resides in his lower hard-hit rate and speed score (Spd). The marginal value of each stolen base is typically much greater than each R or RBI, and Pollock’s sizable lead in that category outweighs Cutch’s lead in R+RBI. I try not to get too caught up in past accolades.
Buctober — in a vacuum (ignoring format, salaries, needs), I don’t know if I could pull the trigger on a trade with any of the guys you mentioned. But nothing about his performance sets him apart from them, either. In light of that, I would keep Cutch strictly for “upside” reasons. I absolutely would trade him for anyone in the second tier, though (again, disregarding league format, etc.) except maybe Billy Hams.
Alice Cooper — Per xBABIP, Upton is underperforming his BABIP by about 20 points. Closes the gap a bit. I would have to z-score it but I think ~5 HR & ~15 SB would be worth more than ~25 R+RBI & .025 BA end-of-season. (Maybin and Fowler probably deserve to be taken down a notch. I can definitively say I wouldn’t trade Cutch for them. Also, I hate ranking Billy Hamilton — I will never draft him. Feel free to rank him wherever you see fit.)
I get that Hamilton kills some of the rate stats but in my league he has 6.7% of all the SB-CS. Put in terms of HR thatd be like someone hitting 140. I don’t think that tier 12 is too low and you could make the argument that he deserves to be in tier 1.
Like Grave of the Fireflies, Ozuna’s performance and demotion has caused me to shed many tears.
An incredible film, but not directed by Hayao!
I’m aware. Just making a studio Ghibli reference. I live in Ann Arbor and we had a Ghibli film festival here at the State Theater. Imagine watching Grave of the Fireflies on the big screen and balling your eyes out in front of a bunch of college kids. No shame.
Gotcha. Oh man, that film festival sounds amazing. No shame, indeed.
Where would Brandon Moss slot in?
Somewhere around Grichuk and Byrd. (Fixed!)
Need to add Cespedes and Moss
My 6-year-old son just asked me, “Why is Ryan Braun a princess?” Time to fire up the Netflix…
Anybody else a bit worried about Braun? I know the #s look fine on the surface, but dig deeper and see that the Hard-Hit% is steadily dropping (45.5% in April, 41.5%, 37.5%, 27.9% and 32.4% post-break), and K% is rising (21.3% in April, then 18.7%, 22.3%, 25.5% and then 29.3% post-break).
Plenty of reason to be concerned with Braun:
http://i913.photobucket.com/albums/ac337/elgato7664/Capture_zpsiz0lveod.png
Months with wRC+ less than 140
April 2011 – May 2014: 1 out of 16
June 2014 – July 2014: 7 out of 8
1. Spirited AWay
2. Mononoke
3. Castle in the Sky
4. The Wind Rises
5. Nausicaa
6. Howl’s
7. Totoro
8. Kiki’s
9. Porco Rosso
10. Ponyo
Tiers: 1-2, 3-5, 6-7, 8-9, 10
I want to point out though that Ponyo, though my least favorite of these, is still a wonderful film. I would just say that it appeals more to children.
Re: Ponyo: I can see that. Just her lil’ voice irritates me. I would probably still rank Arietty above Ponyo.
Now officially on my to-do list: watch Castle in the Sky, and re-watch Nausicaä and Porco. For you!
Arrietty is actually directed by Hiromasa Yonebayashi:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1568921/?ref_=nm_flmg_wr_5
I agree regarding Ponyo’s voice. You could try swapping subs for dubs, but let’s be honest, you probably don’t really have to watch that movie again unless you have kids.
Oh! Didn’t realize it wasn’t him off the top of my head. Pretty amazing how his directorship naturally stands out among his peers.
Let’s name these tiers:
Bryce Harper: Spirited Away & Mononoke (Can’t miss installments)
Justin Upton: Castle in the Sky, The Wind Rises, Nausicaa (Well-rounded classics)
Andrew McCutchen: Howl’s Moving Castle & Totoro (Good movies, don’t hold up quite as well over the years)
Khris Davis: Kiki’s & Porco Rosso (Some aspects are very well done, but may be a tad one-dimensional)
Gregor Blanco: Ponyo (Has it’s usefulness, but probably not on your fantasy team)
Pence, David Peralta, and Cutch are all a tier too low, easily. Pence has been amazing when healthy and everyone seems to be missing Peralta’s excellent season, with no obvious warning signs of slowing down. Cutch is still the second best hitter in the NL, IMO.
I just dropped Maybin in my 10 teamer because he is mired in a 6-week slump and the power has disappeared. Fowler’s power also seems to disappear for long stretches, making his only value his leadoff spot in the good Cubs lineup and a few steals.
Pence may deserve a better rank. I’m just letting him earn his way back.
Peralta out of the cleanup spot is pretty sexy, but he’s a gap hitter who doesn’t steal a lot. He’ll provide big counting stats and a great average but without pizzazz.
I recently dropped Maybin, too. Probably deserves to be dropped a bit. I would trust Fowler more than him in terms of power going forward.
Peralta is 9th among NL OF’ers in HR/FB%. He hits more homers than people realize. The biggest flaw for Peralta from a fantasy perspective has been playing time, but with Tomas struggling and Peralta playing better and better, he’s getting more at-bats.
Joc Pederson?
Ahhhhhh!!! Fixed!
No rank on Joc?
You mention Pederson in the body, but do not rank him.
Any input there?
I was wondering where Castle in the Sky was until I saw that you’ve never seen it. Not sure if you prefer subs or dubs but the dubs of that is actually very good, featuring Patrick Stewart, among others. I’d put it at least #4 in your list, probably #3, a it better than Howl’s Moving Castle at least.
I’ll keep that in mind! I prefer subs but enjoy dubs when done well (or when I just have the TV on in the background while working).
Dickerson :_(
Still valuable for 2016, still projected to deliver huge profit over his cost keep, right? Plantar fasciitis would be totally gone by then?
No idea how plantar fasciitis affects hitters, but Pujols had it and has recovered adequately. He probably just needs to be shut down completely at this point, although the broken ribs already kind of forced the issue.
Joc kinda sux
Piscotty?
Should hit for solid average with modest everything-else. I would slot him somewhere in the top-middle of the fifth tier (The Wind Rises) while he’s active.
I have too vehemently disagree with your Miyazaki rankings. Totoro is top tier while Princess Mononoke is his worst I’ve seen. My rankings would be:
1. My Neighbor Totoro
2. Nausicaa
3. Spirited Away
4. Howl’s Moving Castle
I would put all of Isao Takahata films I’ve seen above this list, including:
Only Yesterday
Grave of the Fireflies
Princess Kaguya
Fun fact: during it’s premier, My Neighbor Totoro was screened as a double feature with Grave of the Fireflies, as those two came out at the same time. Grave was the bigger draw because it was based on a famous book and considered to have educational value to kids, while Totoro was considered a risky investment, thus they bundled the two to reduce risk.
Understanding he is in the same 1B boat as Paulsen, can you tell where you would slot in Brandon Belt?
Awesome rankings! Since my daughter went as Kiki for Halloween, plus Phil Hartman’s voice in the English version, it’s #1 for me. Totoro very close #2.
Where does Shwarber rank when he gains OF eligibility next week?
Schwarber*
Shawarma
Schwarber is already OF eligible in Yahoo
Arriety pitches for the Cubs
I would not trust any analysis coming from the guy who wrote this:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/carlos-gonzalez-a-premature-decline-perhaps/#comment-905759