The Daily Grind: Doom, Owens, Severino, Rodon

Agenda

1. Second Base Doom
2. Daily DFS – Owens
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Rodon, Conforto, Cesar
5. Factor Grid

1. Second Base Doom

In most of my leagues, I own at least one of Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, and Devon Travis. In one league, I own all three. What do they have in common? They were all placed on the disabled list within the last week. Mookie Betts was also a casualty.

Unless your league is very shallow, none of them are expected to miss enough time to warrant a cut. Luckily second base is extraordinarily deep this season. Brad Miller, Didi Gregorius, Odubel Herrera, Jace Peterson, Eddie Rosario, Scooter Gennett, and Derek Dietrich are all under 10 percent owned on Yahoo. Miller and Rosario are my favorites of the group – they both offer solid speed and power. I also like Dietrich, but the Marlins are inconsistent with his playing time.

2. Daily DFS – Owens

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s an all-play evening with the full 15 game slate starting at 7:05 ET or later. And we have aces – Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, and Carlos Carrasco. All are over $10,000 on DraftKings.

As is often the case, the prospect is the best value. Henry Owens costs just $6,700 on DK. A matchup against New York at Yankees Stadium is a challenge. The Bombers tee off against fly ball pitchers. It remains to be seen where Owens settles in on that particular spectrum, but he was slightly fly ball prone in the minors. As I mentioned yesterday, his profile compares to Cole Hamels. DFS owners know that Hamels is capable of both excellent and mediocre performances.

Owens’ season numbers aren’t very impressive. A 3.16 ERA is fine, but 7.58 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9 are bad. Luckily, he seems to have turned a corner recently. Over his last five starts, he has 9.66 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, and a luck neutral 2.84 ERA. We could see a similar adjustment period in the majors, or he might stay hot.

Stack Targets: Vidal Nuno, Jon Gray, Dan Straily, Brad Hand, Jerome Williams

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff left yesterday’s splits in the comments. Today, they’ve returned to their rightful place!

J.D. Martinez v Danny Duffy
Cameron Maybin, A.J. Pierzynski, and Freddie Freeman v Jake Peavy
Russell Martin and Ben Revere v Phil Hughes
Yasiel Puig v Jerome Williams
Carlos Gomez and Chris Carter v Yovani Gallardo
Scooter Gennett v Andrew Cashner
Adam Jones v Chris Bassitt
Buster Posey v Shelby Miller

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Rodon, 

Pitchers to Start: Whereas Boston pitching prospect Owens will need to rely upon his craftiness, Yankees top prospect Luis Severino has the stuff to dominate opponents. He features a mid-90s fastball with solid command, a plus change, and a slutter. Kiley McDaniel explained that the slider-cutter hybrid was inconsistent but flashed plus heading into this season. I am unaware of how it’s developed since then.

Severino has the raw skill set to strikeout about a batter per inning with two to three walks per nine. Yordano Ventura has been mentioned by multiple outlets as a comp.

Also consider: Wei-Yin Chen, Brett Anderson

Pitchers to Exploit: It’s time for a belated mid-term report card on Carlos Rodon. He’s opposed by the lefty bashing Rays tomorrow. Rodon has mowed down opposing hitters with 9.79 K/9. His command is a problem as evidenced by 5.40 BB/9. A .362 BABIP doesn’t help matters, but it’s unclear if he’s simply been unlucky to allow a 26 percent line drive rate.

Rodon suffers from a problem I’ve noticed with a lot of pitchers. Sinkers are generally a terrible pitch. Rodon’s is laughably bad, and he’s thrown it about 30 percent of the time. Hitters have a .488 average and .714 SLG against the pitch. He throws his four-seam fastball with the same frequency. He’s allowed a .264 average and .287 SLG with the pitch. While there is a possible interactive effect – the sinkers may make the four-seamers better – it seems blindly obvious that the pitch should be dropped.

Why has the sinker allowed a .488 average? It turns fly balls into line drives (42.11 LD/BIP). It’s produced only three percent more grounders than his four-seamer.

I swear 50 percent of major league pitchers frequently throw a sinker that has no place in their repertoire. Rodon’s slider and change are plus pitches. He should succeed just fine with a three pitch power repertoire. Maybe the sinker is part of his future success in the big leagues. Work on it in the bullpen.

Also consider: Chris Rusin, Taijuan Walker, Steven Wright, Aaron Harang, Jeff Locke, Buck Farmer, Williams Perez, David Holmberg, Nick Martinez

Hitters (power): I thought Michael Conforto got optioned. Turns out he was a DFS hero last night. Kirk Nieuwenhuis was forced to the disabled list with a neck injury which facilitated Conforto’s return. I’m not sure how I feel about his fantasy profile. He vaguely resembles an outfield version of the Matt Carpenter profile. He should have a good average and on base percentage, but I’m not sure how much power or speed we’ll see. I’d expect 10 to 20 home runs per season with zero to five stolen bases.

Also consider: Scooter Gennett, Preston Tucker, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Eddie Rosario, Darin Ruf, Jeff Francoeur, Andre Ethier, Logan Forsythe

Hitters (speed): Cesar Hernandez cooled off, and everybody abandoned the bandwagon. He still bats first, second, or third for the Phillies. He has a superior swing from the right side of the box. He’s hitting .351/.415/.432 against southpaws with a .441 BABIP. Dan Farnsworth confirmed to me that his righty swing has better leverage and potential for power. He’s opposed by ground ball pitcher Brett Anderson.

Also consider: Will Venable, Jarrod Dyson, Brock Holt, Austin Jackson, Brandon Guyer

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Should be a dry day for baseball. You’ll notice the table is nice and stratified. You have clear choices for power and pitching.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.