A month before the season started, I introduced a model that predicts a Minor League hitter’s chances of Major League success based on his statistics during his most recent AAA stint. I will use that same model now to update the list of the National League’s top MLB-ready outfield prospects, the key term here being MLB-ready, not prospect — the goal is to identify players who scouts may not love but stats do.

The model looks at how a hitter once performed in AAA and compares it to his known career outcome, ultimately calculating probabilities that a certain career outcome will occur. These probabilities can then be applied to current Minor League players in order to project their currently unknown career outcomes. I discuss the model’s nitty-gritty, as well as its similarities with and potential shortcomings to Chris Mitchell’s KATOH, in the link provided in this post’s first sentence. Both models share the same goal and their methodologies are almost identical, so their results can be considered comparable; mine simply takes a more subjective approach, as I will explain shortly. This is not a turf war.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 57 – Starting To Show Some Life

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss pitchers that struggled on Monday, Odrisamer Despaigne’s underwhelming stuff, the concept of the DFS “middle ground,” closer looks at Anthony Rendon and Stephen Drew, Maikel Franco’s impressive performance, and predictions surrounding Billy Burns and his resulting price.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Agenda

1. GPP Pitching Strategies
2. Daily DFS – Smith
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Garcia, Nova, Peralta, Holt
5. Factor Grid

Read the rest of this entry »

There is no ideal batted ball mix for all players. Run the numbers, and there’s no strong correlation between things like pull, opposite-field, ground-ball and fly-ball rates and weighted on base average or similar production stats.

That said, there is at least one “bad” batted ball type, the infield fly. And there is a decent relationship between fly balls and power, and between oppo% and BABIP. So you can feel your way to the ‘right’ mix for each player type.

And the players do themselves, as well. In general, they hit fewer ground balls as they approach their peak, which is a way for them to increase their power. And there are plenty of anecdotes from hitters about either leveling their swing plane to get on base more, or trying to hit more fly balls in order to hit for more power.

It’s clear that batted ball mix is a source for improvement in younger hitters, and that — if you’re careful — you can use it to try and figure out the future for a young player. So let’s turn this spotlight on two very different players, Manny Machado and Billy Burns, to see what we can learn.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I dissected the batted ball distance leaderboard by looking at five hitters whose distance has validated their HR/FB rate surges. Today, I’ll look at those bringing up the rear, with five hitters whose HR/FB rate declines are supported by a dip in batted ball distance. This doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom the rest of the way, but that their current poor performance isn’t just bad fortune.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday the USWNT advanced to the quarterfinals of the World Cup, however it was a pretty narrow 2-0 win. The team will be without Rapinoe and Holiday in the game against China, so the US has their work cut out for them.

On today’s agenda:
1. I still like Steven Souza
2. Jered Weaver injury update
3. Ivan Nova returns tomorrow
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Read the rest of this entry »

• After losing the closing gig earlier this year, we figured that Addison Reed could have regained his role with improved performance in lower leverage innings. However, since then he’s only struggled and has now been demoted to AAA. It stands that Reed could theoretically still regain his familiar role in the ninth, but he’s far off the radar as of now. With Reed’s demotion comes Enrique Burgos‘ return from the 15-day DL. Burgos has nasty stuff, generating tons of strikeouts and is in someways the antithesis of current closer Brad Ziegler who has a paltry 4.50 K/9. Ziegler is converting the opportunities he’s given though, and his grasp on the job is fairly secure. Once Burgos gets a few innings under his belt, he could leapfrog Dan Hudson in the pecking order.

Read the rest of this entry »

• Freddie Freeman will have an MRI today to see what exactly is wrong with his wrist which has cost him to miss four straight games.

“[My wrist] is not worse, it’s just not getting better,” Freeman said. “I really don’t have an answer until I can maybe get an X-ray or an MRI. I just want to know what is wrong.”

Freeman is expected to undergo an MRI on Monday, before the Braves travel to Washington, D.C., for a three-game series against the Nationals that begins on Tuesday.

• Jered Weaver is on the DL in with an inflamed hip.

Weaver allowed four earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the A’s on Saturday, but he said the hip injury did not have any effect on his performance. He has given up 19 runs in his last four starts, all losses.

Well, at least we will know he will continue to suck once he comes back since the injury wasn’t causing the loss in production.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a middling former first round pick who might benefit from a change in role… and three raw — but promising — prospects that should be monitored in keeper leagues.

Kyle Crick, RHP, Giants: Crick was selected in the first round of the 2011 draft and looked like a fast mover after he dominated Low-A ball in 2012 at the age of 19, despite great control or command. Unfortunately, he missed a chunk of time in 2013 due to injury and his command/control have failed to improve over the past four seasons. After striking out more batters than innings pitched in each of his pro seasons prior to 2015, he’s now whiffed just 40 in 41.1 Double-A innings while walking 36. Crick, now 22, still has good, raw stuff but a move to the bullpen may be necessary for him to fully realize his potential at the big league level. Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla (assuming his option is picked up) will both be free agents after the 2016 season and the Giants may be in need for a hard-throwing, high-leverage reliever to pair with Hunter Strickland. [Value Steady]

Read the rest of this entry »

Too big of a reach on the title?

As I tend to do on Sundays when considering a topic for my Monday post on shortstops, I was perusing the leaderboards and settled on Brad Miller as today’s topic. What caught my eye with Miller was that he has the lowest BABIP of any healthy shortstop with a wRC+ north of 100. Read the rest of this entry »