The Daily Grind: Josh Smith, Nova, Peralta

Agenda

  1. GPP Pitching Strategies
  2. Daily DFS – Smith
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Garcia, Nova, Peralta, Holt
  5. Factor Grid

1. GPP Pitching Strategies

On most days, I use a simple rule of thumb for selecting a pitcher. I’m looking for the cheapest guy who could reasonably output 20 FanDuel points. That means they need to be capable of a seven inning, nine strikeout shutout (or better) with a decent shot at a victory. Sometimes, the only pitchers with that profile cost over $10,000. Other days, a 12 to 14 point hurler has a ridiculous $3,000 to $5,000 price tag.

Tonight, I’m inclined to use one of the ultra-expensive studs.

2. Daily DFS – Smith

I used to work with a Josh Smith. The guy throwing for the Reds tonight is most decidedly not that Josh Smith. He’s thrown 74 innings across three levels with a 3.04 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9. He appears to be exactly the kind of player who would appear in Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five. Alas, no such appearances. Nor did Kiley McDaniel feel the need to reference in his Reds prospect list.

Our projection systems call for a 4.34 ERA with 6.81 K/9 and 2.99 BB/9. He’s of interest as somebody to use or exploit. He costs just $3,000, but we know so little about him. The game is at PNC Park.

Stack Targets: Sean O’Sullivan, Stephen Strasburg?, Jeff Locke, Joe Kelly, Jose Urena, R.A. Dickey, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jon Niese, Mike Fiers, Chase Anderson, Kyle Kendrick, Jeremy Guthrie, Odrisamer Despaigne

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Often I list my favorites from this particular stat. That trend shall continue.

Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips vs. Jeff Locke
Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy vs. Joe Kelly
Derek Dietrich vs. Carlos Martinez
Carlos Gomez vs. Jon Niese
J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera vs. Danny Salazar
Michael Cuddyer and Travis d’Arnaud vs. Mike Fiers

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Garcia, Nova, Peralta, Holt

Pitchers to Start: Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia’s ownership tends to depend on league type. H2H owners are happy to roster a strong ERA and WHIP. St. Louis offers plenty of run support. The drawback is a low strikeout rate. Roto league owners have trouble swallowing 6.15 K/9. He’s up against the Marlins at Miami Caverns.

Also consider: Mat Latos, Michael Bolsinger, Wandy Rodriguez, Kendall Graveman

Pitchers to Exploit: Ivan Nova returns to action tomorrow against the Phillies. Sure, Philadelphia is a lousy hitting team despite some recent success. I still worry about Nova’s first start back in Yankee Stadium. The Phillies have some lefties who can exploit the short right field porch. From what I can gather, his velocity was in the low-90’s during his rehab stint. His peripherals remained below his peak. We still need to give him a chance to settle in before we count him as a regular exploit.

Also consider: Bud Norris, Bartolo Colon, Allen Webster, David Hale, Danny Duffy, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power)David Peralta isn’t competing for playing time, yet he’s just three percent owned. He’s playing at Coors Field. He’ll have the platoon advantage. Do you need any more information?

Also consider: Gerardo Parra, Mark Canha, Chris Coghlan, Tucker Preston, Cody Asche, Chris Young, David Murphy

Hitters (speed): It seems like at least one Red Sox starter is always banged up. The result is that Brock Holt plays most days. The utility man is Yahoo eligible at every position but catcher. A .402 BABIP has helped him along to a .318/.407/.486 slash.

Also consider: Cory Spangenberg, Angel Pagan, Jon Jay, Adam Eaton

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The current reports say the games in New York and Boston will be no more than delayed. The Nationals storm risk is consistent most of the evening.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





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