Archive for May, 2015

Buying Low Using LOB%: Buchholz, Carrasco and Strasburg

Strikeouts are highly desirable from starting pitchers — not exactly an Earth shattering revelation. Unfortunately, everyone wants them, meaning they aren’t often readily available on the waiver wire. With that in mind, I glanced over the leaderboard for strikeout rate among qualified hurlers searching for some potential buy-low candidates. A trio of pitchers stood out to me. Clay Buchholz, Carlos Carrasco and Stephen Strasburg are all posting significantly worse ERA marks than their ERA estimators suggest they should be. Each pitcher, somewhat predictably, has an elevated BABIP, but all three also rank in the bottom 10 among qualified starters in left on base percentage. Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 5/21/2015

Episode 34 – Stackin’ A’s

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer discusses both Thursday slates covering every position. His favorite stacks include the Mariners in the afternoon and A’s in the evening. The Braves make a sneaky night stack v. Garza, too. Pitching is tough in the evening leading toward some high-dollar recommendations on the offensive side. Meanwhile the big arms in the afternoon are facing decent lineups.

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The Daily Grind: Dynasty, Chavez, Young

Agenda

  1. I’m Back!
  2. Dynasty Observations Pt 1
  3. Daily DFS – Chavez
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Young, Alvarez, Davis, Guyer
  5. Factor Grid

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Scott’s Miscellany – Enrique Burgos Speculation

The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

Enrique Burgos Speculation–

Even though Addison Reed had just lost his closer job, I didn’t think much of the fact that rookie reliever Enrique Burgos received the save for the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, his second of the season. As Benjamin Pasinkoff pointed out in the Bullpen Report, Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale told reporters that Brad Ziegler was his closer but that he wanted to avoid using him in that game since he had thrown 27 pitches the previous day. But then I happened upon the FanGraphs strikeouts per nine leaders for relievers so far this season.

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Carlos Carrasco & Carlos Carrasco

It’s no secret that I loved Carlos Carrasco heading into the 2014 season. His spectacular performance over his final 10 starts last year vaulted him into the not actually a sleeper sleeper territory during this year’s draft season. By this I mean that he was hyped as a sleeper by just about everyone, but that meant that everyone who paid attention knew how awesome and legit he was and bid him up to or drafted him at fair value. But his first eight starts of this year have not gone the way we all expected. His ERA sits at a disappointing 4.98 and he has averaged just about 5.4 innings per start.

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Roto Riteup: May 21, 2015

Happy birthday to my sister and brother-in-law! Kind of convenient they share the same birthday, really.

On today’s agenda:
1. Joe Mauer goes Yahtzee
2. Josh Hamilton’s potential return
3. Shoulder surgery for Hyun-Jin Ryu
4. Welcome back, Jaime Garcia
5. Streaming Pitching Options
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Bullpen Report: May 20, 2015

Drew Storen recorded his 12th save of the year on 15 pitches tonight for the Nationals. Storen is now 12-of-13 in save chances this season and lowered his ERA to 1.04, while his FIP sits at 1.41 in just over 17 frames on the bump. Storen’s K-BB% is currently a career best, possibly due to the slight uptick in velocity, but definitely thanks to a career-best swinging strike rate of 14.5%.

On 10 pitches — eight strikes and two balls — Jonathan Papelbon retired the Rockies in the home half of the ninth-inning to pick up his 11th save of the year in as many chances. The Phillies’ closer fanned two this evening, raising his strikeout rate to 31.5% on the year, while allowing just about 5.5% of opposing batters to reach via the free pass, none of which occurred in tonight’s effort. Outside of being rumored to be on the move in a potential trade at some point this year — even though, that may be a good thing for the 34-year-old closer — Papelbon is putting together a fine season.
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Searching For Power In the American League Outfield

After looking at base stealing options last week, today we’ll shift focus to the home run department. Both players on today’s list are mostly available, though they come with flaws attached to their home run potential. Without further ado, let’s take a look at Colby Rasmus and Chris Young. Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 5/20/2015

Episode 33 – Stacks Aplenty

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer discusses the Wednesday slate filling in for Dylan on vacation. Paul has picks at every position plus a quick rundown of the most viable stacks for the night.

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An Investigation (and Validation) of Rubby’s Improvements

Rubby de la Rosa twirled a gem Monday night.* It was a night of several unlucky fantasy pitching performances: Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Matt Harvey and John Lackey together struck out 34 batters and allowed only three runs in a combined 32 innings pitched, and the Twitterverse made sure everyone knew.

Yet there was de la Rosa, plugging away against the Marlins (and against Dan Haren, who admirably tossed eight innings of two-run ball in defense), needing only 94 pitches to get through a full nine innings of play. Rubby, too, settled for a no-decision, his due to a poorly timed two-run homer allowed to J.T. Realmuto in the 7th inning.

I was reluctant to invest in Rubby at first, remembering his wholly disappointing 2014 season. (In his defense, he was never really a touted, let alone highly touted, prospect, even within the Dodgers and Red Sox systems, so the term “disappointment” is used loosely here.) However, I have bought several shares of Rubby in the past couple of weeks due in large part to a smattering of injuries but also a series of respectable performances by de la Rosa.

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